Convection-Allowing Modeling and Analysis Efforts at EMC

The NCEP production suite is poised for several changes at the convective-scale in the coming years through advances in modeling, ensembles, and data assimilation. Much of this is motivated by the recent adaptation of the Finite­ Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) project, which has paved the way for unification of global and regional modeling efforts under the same dynamic core.

Recent development of a stand-alone regional FV3 capability, which allows the model to run without the need for a simultaneously integrated global parent domain, opens new possibilities for convective-scale modeling with FV3. Current capabilities involve testing the FV3 with this stand-alone regional domain as well as in a global configuration featuring a convection-allowing nest over CONUS. As testing matures, the convection-allowing FV3 will be introduced as a(n) additional member(s) to the operational, convection-allowing High Resolution Ensemble Forecast system. Longer term plans feature an evolution from the current multi-model system toward a single-core ensemble with an ensemble-based data assimilation component. Data assimilation advancements also include multiple joint, collaborative efforts with labs and university partners, many of which focus on the improved use of observations at the convective-scale along with a focus on ensemble-based assimilation methods.

Advancements toward improving situational awareness and analysis-of-record capabilities are also underway through ongoing, collaborative work between NCEP/EMC and ESRL/GSD to enhance the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system. This joint effort focuses on extending the current 2D RTMA system, which focuses on sensible weather elements, to be fully 3D with sub-hourly updates with the direct assimilation of a variety of observation types, including radar, satellite, and aircraft data.

This presentation will provide a broad overview of these activities at NCEP, how they fit into longer term plans, and describe the need for community involvement and collaborative efforts to realize the full potential of these efforts.