Science and Communication Challenges within WoF and FACETs-driven NWS Severe Weather Service Evolution

Continued science advances, including operational implementation of a High Resolution Ensemble Forecast system (HREF), and development of a prototype Warn on Forecast system (WoF), have enabled the NWS Storm Prediction Center to make important advances in operational services to prepare the public and emergency decision makers for major severe weather events consistent with the FACETs vision. Short range, high temporal and spatial resolution probabilistic severe weather outlooks will bridge traditional Outlook, Watch and Warning scales to drive critical planning and decisions in the hours prior to severe weather events. To support these outlooks, and forecasts, on all time scales, SPC has developed an initial array of calibrated probabilistic forecast guidance extracted from a combination of CAM and convection parameterized ensemble prediction systems. Quantitative Impact-based Decision Support (qIDSS) tools and analytics, will support science-based forecasts of likely scenarios and societal impacts with consistency for emergency decision makers across national, state, and local scales. Initial development has focused on development of a realistic “weather generator”, which statistically translates probabilistic forecasts into thousands of equally likely tornado path realizations consistent in space and intensity with the official SPC forecast. These realizations can be used to create probabilistic impact forecasts applicable to support emergency response preparations, with applicability within both government for public emergency decision-makers, and within private sector partners for their own unique customer needs. Optimizing these new services will require advances in the rigor of our science and operations. This presentation will describe these new services, how science advances are enabling them, and most importantly, the new scientific challenges which must be addressed to achieve and optimize these future life saving services.