10A.5 The NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for Ensembles at the 2018 NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Experiments

Wednesday, 24 October 2018: 3:00 PM
Pinnacle C (Stoweflake Mountain Resort )
Nusrat Yussouf, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. A. Jones, P. Skinner, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. C. Dowell, J. Hu, X. Wang, D. D. Turner, K. A. Wilson, P. L. Heinselman, T. Alcott, G. J. Creager, J. J. Choate, L. J. Wicker, A. E. Reinhart, J. Zhang, S. M. Martinaitis, T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, and J. J. Gourley

The NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in collaboration with other NOAA and university partners, is leading the Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) program to develop and refine an ensemble-based, convection-resolving model forecast system that will potentially fill the National Weather Service forecast guidance gaps within the ‘watch-to-warning’ temporal and spatial scales for high impact weather. The result is the development of a prototype WoF system called the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e), which is a frequently cycled, regional-scale, on-demand ensemble data assimilation and prediction system. Toward this end, the NEWS-e system is being evaluated in real time at the Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecast Experiments (HWT SFE) for hazardous severe weather. However, one important application of NEWS-e is the short-term forecast guidance for flash flood producing extreme rainfall events. To evaluate the utility of WoF probabilistic products for extreme rainfall and flash flood forecast guidance, the NEWS-e system is demonstrated at the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall (HMT-FFaIR) and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Hydro (HMT-Hydro) experiments in the summer of 2018 for the first time. This talk will provide an overview and evaluation of the NEWS-e probabilistic products, in addition to ensemble verification results from the 2018 HMT experiments.
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