Automated Tracking, Alerting and Prediction of Dangerous Convective Storms: An Assessment of the COBRA Radar Algorithms

Local television broadcasts in the U.S. are now the most critical component of the detection, dissemination and response process for significant weather events like dangerous convective storms. Advances in communication, computer, and weather remote sensing technology have allowed for the development of real-time, commercial weather systems for local television stations that have greatly enhanced situation awareness for dangerous storms on both the regional and local scale. The ability to provide protection of property and lives via television broadcasts has led most local stations to acquire some form of commercial real-time weather technology, and over 100 stations are currently operating their own weather radars. Real-time meteorological processing of radar data is a necessity in most complex convective weather situations so that tracking, alerting and prediction of these storms can be done "live" on the air, quickly and accurately. This presentation will discuss COBRA radar algorithm technology, the core of Baron's real-time radar data processing system, with respect to automated storm tracking, alerting and prediction. Verification data from several severe convective storm types will be presented, both for detection and prediction. These data reflect scientific performance statistics for automated detection of dangerous winds and related hail and heavy rainfall from NEXRAD data. Automated storm alerting using the SAF-T-Net system will also be discussed relative to automated storm-tracking accuracy. Finally, short-term prediction of dangerous convective storms from the FutureScan System will be discussed relative to communicating visually the motion, growth and decay of several types of convective storm events.