1C.6 Updates to the NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product

Monday, 31 March 2014: 9:30 AM
Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, L. Ma, and H. Syed

The NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product was first introduced as an operational product for the Atlantic and N.E. Pacific basins in 2006 and expanded to cover the global tropics in 2012. The original product provided the probability of TC formation within 5-degree grid boxes within the next 24 hours. Last year, the TCFP product forecast period was extended to 48 hours to better meet the needs of global users. Extending the forecast period of the TCFP required a significant change to the TCFP methodology, including the use of GFS forecast fields, the adoption of a 1-degree resolution domain with a new spatial averaging scheme, and testing of new predictors. The new TCFP algorithm methodology will be presented along with validation of the product from the 2013 season. Also a new application, where thresholds of the TCFP probabilities are used to objectively initiate more refined TC genesis prediction schemes and models, will be discussed as an avenue for future work.

Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and findings contained in this article are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.

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