31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Registration Opens

Registration Continues through Friday April 4

Session 1A

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction and Interannual Variability

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC

8:15 AM

1A.1

Thirty Years of Making Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts - Lessons Learned, Certitudes Abandoned

William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.4 MB)

8:30 AM

1A.2

New Challenges and Expectations of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL; UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1A.3

Predicting Tropical Cyclone Landfall Risk Through Genesis and Steering Climatology

Ryan Truchelut, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

9:00 AM

1A.4

Correlation Between Named Storm Genesis Locations and Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity: A Possible Link to Seasonal SAL Frequency

Evan B. Forde, NOAA/AOML/CSND, Miami, FL; and M. Black and J. Dunion

9:15 AM

1A.5

Impacts of Extratropical Forcing on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

Recorded Presentation

1A.6

Climate Dynamics of Easterly Waves in the North Atlantic and East Pacific

9:30 AM

1A.6A

Beyond Two-week Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Events in Western North Pacific and Atlantic

Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and H. C. Tsai and M. S. Jordan

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1A.7

Modulation of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Using an Extended MJO Index (1905-2011)

Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

Session 1B

African Weather and Climate I

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas; Amber E. Emory, NASA/GSFC

8:15 AM

1B.1

An Idealized Study of West African Monsoon Variability: An Energetic Perspective

Ravi Shekhar, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and W. R. Boos

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

1B.2

Identification of a Congo Basin Walker Circulation

Naresh Neupane, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (27.5 kB)

8:45 AM

1B.3

West African Monsoon Demise: Climatology, Interannual Variations, and Relationship to Seasonal Rainfall

Gang Zhang, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (735.2 kB)

9:00 AM

1B.4

A seamless assessment of the role of convection in the water cycle of the West African Monsoon

Cathryn E. Birch, UK Met Office, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom; and D. J. Parker, J. H. Marsham, D. Copsey, and L. Garcia-Carreras

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1B.5

Water vapor in the Saharan Heat Low: A theory of interannual to decadal scale variability in the summertime circulation over West Africa

Amato Evan, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and C. Flamant

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1B.6

Climatology of continental stratus over the southern West African monsoon region

Roderick van der Linden, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany; and A. H. Fink, R. Schuster, and P. Knippertz

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1B.7

Revisiting the statistical relationship between remote climate indices and West African monsoon variability

Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. Diatta

Recorded Presentation

Session 1C

Tropical Cyclone Genesis I

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Todd B. Kimberlain, NOAA

8:15 AM

1C.1

Tropical cyclogenesis conditions in the Southwestern Indian Ocean

Cherina Meetoo, Laboratoire d'Aérologie (Université de Toulouse and CNRS), Toulouse, France; and F. Roux

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.4 MB)

8:30 AM

1C.2

Tropical cyclogenesis prediction using lagged average forecast method with global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model

Masahiro Sawada, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan; and M. Nakano, T. Nasuno, T. Yamaura, and M. Satoh

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1C.3

Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Melinda Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and B. Fu, T. Li, M. E. Kucas, and J. Darlow

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1C.4

A Comparison of Four Operational Global Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Predicting the Genesis of Typhoon Megi (2010)

Akira Shimokobe, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1C.5

Exploring Genesis Potential Indices

Cindy Bruyere, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Holland and M. Jones

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1C.6

Updates to the NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product

Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, L. Ma, and H. Syed

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1C.7

Determining predictors for a statistical tropical cyclone genesis tool based on GFS output

Daniel J. Halperin, University at Albany, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

Handout (859.5 kB)

Session 1D

Hazard Communication

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert Berg, National Hurricane Center

8:15 AM

1D.1

Improved Classification of Hurricane Impact by Inclusion of Rainfall Hazards

Mehdi Rezapour, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD , Australia; and T. Baldock

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

1D.2

Spatiotemporal disruption of mobile communication patterns in the New York Metro area by Hurricane Irene

Christopher Small, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and R. Becker, R. Caceres, and S. Urbanek

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1D.3

The New Era of Hazards Communication: A Review of Emergency Manager’s Use of Social Media During Superstorm Sandy

Christopher M. Zarzar, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and H. B. Lussenden

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.8 MB)

9:00 AM

1D.4

Supporting emergency managers during tropical cyclone approach in Baja California, Mexico

Luis M. Farfán, CICESE, La Paz, Baja California , Mexico; and G. B. Raga

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (602.2 kB)

9:15 AM

1D.5

Manuel and Ingrid (2013) over Mexico: Effects and Impacts

Graciela B. Raga, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera/Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and L. M. Farfan, M. De la Parra, S. M. Olivera, S. F. Abarca, and J. C. Marin

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1D.6

Evaluating Operational Forecast Uncertainty for Emergency Planning

Peter S. Dailey, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and J. Gadoury

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1D.7

A climate-dependent statistical model of tropical cyclone hazard and risk

Emmi Yonekura, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and N. Lin

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Session 2A

Air-Sea Interaction I

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: M. A. Bourassa, COAPS/Florida State Univ.

10:30 AM

2A.1

Tropical Cyclone-Induced Thermocline Warming and its Regional and Global Impacts

Michael Bueti, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and L. M. Rothstein

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (7.0 MB)

10:45 AM

2A.2

The truth about 26C and the relative roles of the ocean and atmosphere at the hurricane air–sea interface

Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2A.3

Microphysics of air-sea interface in tropical cyclones

Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern University, Dania Beach, FL; and R. Lukas, M. A. Donelan, B. K. Haus, and I. Ginis

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2A.4

Tropical Cyclone Air-Sea Enthalpy Flux Estimates from Dropsonde Profiles

David H. Richter, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN; and D. P. Stern

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2A.5

Tropical Cyclone-Ocean Interaction in Typhoon Megi (2010) - A Synergy Study based on ITOP Observations and Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Model Simulations

Wei-Tsung Tu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, I. I. Lin, D. S. Ko, S. S. Chen, and C. Y. Lee

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2A.6

An analytical model of maximum potential intensity for tropical cyclones incorporating the effect of ocean mixing

Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and R. Rotunno and G. H. Bryan

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

2A.7

E-epsilon model of sea spray-stratified marine atmospheric layer in high wind conditions

Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. A. Suslov

Recorded Presentation

Session 2B

African Weather and Climate II

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Amato Evan, SIO/Univ. Of California; Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

10:30 AM

2B.1

Intensification of the Saharan Heat Low: Observations, Attribution, and Implications for Sahel Rainfall

Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. Vizy

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2B.2

Influence of Mid-latitude Cold Air Surges on Rainfall Variability in the Sahel and Tropical Africa

Edward K. Vizy, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2B.3

Analysis of tropical high impact weather events using TIGGE data

Susanna Hopsch, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones and J. H. Keller

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2B.4

Understanding What can be Resolved with Polar-Orbiting Satellite Platforms for Fast Evolving Tropical Convective Systems

Amber E. Emory, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield, G. Jenkins, and C. Liu

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2B.5

Heavy Rainfall Predictability : the THORPEX West Africa case study

Jean Philippe Lafore, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and A. Diongue, F. Beucher, N. Chapelon, R. Roehrig, and T. Diedhiou

Recorded Presentation

2B.6

Relationship Between Convection and African Easterly Waves

11:45 AM

2B.6A

Internal Processes within African Easterly Waves

Emmanuel Poan, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore, R. Roehrig, and F. Couvreux

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

2B.7

Effects of the Subtropical Anticyclones Over North Africa and Arabian Peninsula on the African Easterly Jet

James Spinks, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

Session 2C

Tropical Cyclone Genesis II

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois

2C.1

Effects of tropical North Atlantic SST on tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific

10:45 AM

2C.2

Using Dropsonde and Satellite Measurements to Evaluate Mid-Tropospheric Humidity and its Importance in Tropical Cyclogenesis

David Yeomans, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Soden

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2C.3

An Underappreciated Ingredient in Tropical Cyclogenesis: Lower Tropospheric Warming by Subsidence in Mesoscale Convective Systems

Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2C.4

Evolution of CAPE in idealised simulations of tropical cyclogenesis

Marguerite Lee, University Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and T. Frisius

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2C.5

Cloud microphysics in tropical cyclogenesis: Investigation of developing and non-developing cloud clusters

Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. M. Wood and P. A. Barnard

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (501.2 kB)

11:45 AM

2C.6

Mesoscale Convective Systems at Tropical Cyclone Formation Time from Microwave Satellite Observations

Myung-Sook Park, Ulsan National Institute of Science & Technology (UNIST), Ulsan, Korea, Republic of (South)

12:00 PM

2C.7

Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis using satellite-based observations

Lesley A. L. Mazzarella, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie and K. M. Wood

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (542.0 kB)

Session 2D

Storm Surge

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.

10:30 AM

2D.1

Climatological-hydrodynamic storm surge modeling for Apalachee Bay, Florida

Ning Lin, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and P. Lane, K. Emanuel, R. Sullivan, and J. Donnelly

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2D.2

Dynamic storm surge prediction with one-way coupled mesoscale modeling system

Sujata Pattanayak, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India; and U. C. Mohanty, K. K. Osuri, S. Gopalakrishnan, and D. Niyogi

11:00 AM

2D.3

Storm surge estimation due to the incidence of simultaneous tropical cyclones in Mexico

Christian M. Appendini, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mérida, Yucatan, Mexico; and R. Meza-Padilla, A. Pedrozo-Acuña, G. B. Raga, and L. M. Farfán

Recorded Presentation

Handout (7.5 MB)

11:15 AM

2D.4

Storm surge modelling for the Northern Yucatan Peninsula

WILMER Rey-Sanchez Sr., Instituto de Ingenieria, UNAM, Campus Sisal, Yucatan, Sisal,Yucatan, Yucatan, Mexico; and P. Salles and E. T. Mendoza

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2D.5

Prediction and Verification of Storm Surge During Hurricane Sandy with the NWS SLOSH Model

Cristina Forbes, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome, A. A. Taylor, and C. Mattocks

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.4 MB)

11:45 AM

2D.6

SLOSH Model MOMs: A National View of Inundation

Brian C. Zachry, National Hurricane Center / Storm Surge Unit, Miami, FL; and W. Booth and J. Rhome

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

2D.7

Improving Storm Surge Risk Communication

Jamie Rhome, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. Berg, W. Booth, and E. Gibney

Recorded Presentation

Lunch

Session 3A

Air-Sea Interaction II

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/HRD

1:30 PM

3A.1

Systematically Merged Pacific Ocean Regional Temperature and Salinity (SPORTS) Climatology For Typhoon Intensity Forecasts

E. Claire McCaskill, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (866.0 kB)

1:45 PM

3A.2

Oceanic Influences on Super Typhoon Haiyan

Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. C. McCaskill and J. K. Brewster

2:00 PM

3A.3

Sensitivity of Simulated Tropical Cyclones to Air-Sea Flux Parameterizations

Benjamin Green, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3A.4

Hurricane Isaac (2012): In-situ Observations and Fully Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Model Predictions

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. Curcic, L. Centurioni, and I. Morzel

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3A.5

Advancing hurricane prediction models through enhanced physics of the air-sea-wave coupling

Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Reichl, T. Hara, and B. Thomas

Recorded Presentation

3A.6

Tropical Cyclone Chlorophyll-a Production in a Fully-Coupled Air-Sea-Biology Model

3A.7

Radiation and Energy Flux Transfers under Monsoon conditions over Heron Reef, Southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia

3:15 PM

3A.8

Influences of Sea Surface Temperature Gradients and Surface Roughness Changes on the Motion of Surface Oil: A Simple Idealized Study

Mark Bourassa, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and Y. Zhang and P. J. Hughes

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Convection I

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Derek J. Posselt, University of Michigan

1:30 PM

3B.1

Probing into responses of moist convection to large-scale temperature perturbations using a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model

Yang Tian, Harvard University, cambridge, MA; and J. Nie and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3B.2

The Spectral Weak Temperature Gradient Approximation

Michael J. Herman, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

3B.3

Modeling the convective response to changes in the thermodynamic environment using the weak temperature gradient approximation: on the treatment of moisture

Sharon Sessions, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. Sentic, M. J. Herman, and D. J. Raymond

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3B.4

The temperature dependence of CAPE, cloud-buoyancy, and vertical velocities in radiative-convective equilibrium

Martin S. Singh, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. A. O'Gorman

Recorded Presentation

3B.5

The mechanisms for convection triggering by cold pools

2:45 PM

3B.6

A Mechanism of Tropical Convection Inferred from Observed Variability in the Moist Static Energy Budget

Hirohiko Masunaga, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and T. L'Ecuyer

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3B.7

Physical mechanisms controlling self-aggregation of convection in idealized numerical modeling simulations

Allison A. Wing, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (8.3 MB)

3:15 PM

3B.8

Radiative-Convective Instability

Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and A. A. Wing and E. M. Vincent

Recorded Presentation

Session 3C

Tropical Cyclone Genesis III

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Gary M. Barnes, University of Hawaii

3C.1

On tropical cyclogenesis: climatology and a dynamical investigation

1:45 PM

3C.2

Cloud Evolution and a Conceptual Model for Tropical Cyclone Formation

Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL

2:00 PM

3C.3

Water Vapor Budget in a Developing Tropical Cyclone and Its Implication to Tropical Cyclone Formation

Cody Lee Fritz, University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3C.4

Recent Results in Tropical Cyclogenesis

Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3C.5

Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Formation in Monsoon Troughs over Western North Pacific

Liguang Wu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and H. Zong

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3C.6

Propagation and Growth of Monsoon Depressions

William R. Boos, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and J. V. Hurley and V. S. Murthy

3:00 PM

3C.7

Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Formation for Different Genesis Pathways

Weiwei Li, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, M. Peng, X. Fu, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and F. Vitart

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3C.8

Helical nature of tropical cyclogenesis: WHEN will a nascent vortex become self-sustaining ?

Galina V. Levina, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.6 MB)

Session 3D

Tropical Waves

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Benjamin Andrew Stieneke, North Carolina State University

1:30 PM

3D.1

Associations Between West Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Hurricane Sandy (2012)

Lawrence C. Gloeckler, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (7.2 MB)

1:45 PM

3D.2

Dispersion characteristics of low-level mixed Rossby-gravity waves as inferred from CFSR data

Andie Y. M. Au-Yeung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and C. Y. F. Tam

2:00 PM

3D.3

Tropical Multi-Scale Oscillations and TC activities in Western Pacific

Chung-Hsiung Sui, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and L. Ching and M. J. Yang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3D.4

A global survey of Kelvin waves and tropical cyclogenesis

Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and J. P. Kossin

Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.8 MB)

2:30 PM

3D.5

The role of African Easterly Wave Variability in North Atlantic Cyclogenesis

Simon N. Rowell, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3D.6

Role of coastal topography in pre-tropical cyclone disturbance formation

Konstantine Louis Pryles, University of Georgia, Duluth, GA; and J. L. Evans

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.8 MB)

3D.7

Convective and Absolute Instability of the African Easterly Jet

3:00 PM

3D.8

A Climatology of Central American Gyres

Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (8.4 MB)

Coffee Break

Session 4A

Tropical Cyclone Dynamics

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: James D. Doyle, NRL

4:00 PM

4A.1

Predictability and dynamics of tropical cyclones: sensitivity to environmental shear, sea-surface temperature and moisture

Dandan Tao, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4A.2

The Response of a Simulated Tropical Cyclone to Moderate Misalignment Forcing

David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO

4:30 PM

4A.3

On steady-state tropical cyclones

Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian's Univ., Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and J. Persing

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4A.4

On Steady-State Tropical Cyclones Continued

John Persing, NPS, Wellington, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and J. C. McWilliams

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4A.5

Tropical Cyclone Convection: The Effect of Boundary Layer Wind Profiles

Gerard Kilroy, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4A.6

Linear & Nonlinear Motion of a Barotropic Vortex

Israel Gonzalez III, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (360.2 kB)

5:30 PM

4A.7

An f-plain Cloud-Resolving Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

Marat F. Khairoutdinov, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and K. A. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

4A.8

Observed 3D to 2D energy cascade in hurricanes

David Byrne, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland; and J. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.4 MB)

Session 4B

Convection II

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL; Qi Hu, University of Nebraska

4:00 PM

4B.1

Diurnal variations and climatological rainfall contribution from extreme convective storms over the tropical belt between America and Africa

Manuel D. Zuluaga, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and K. L. Rasmussen, A. Gingrey, and R. A. Houze, Jr.

Recorded Presentation

Handout (18.5 MB)

4:15 PM

4B.2

Lagrangian investigation of the precipitation efficiency of convective clouds

Wolfgang Langhans, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps and K. Yeo

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4B.3

Moisture and heat budgets within atmospheric rivers in January 2009

Qianwen Luo, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4B.4

An Observation and CRM Based Analysis of Aerosol-Convection Interaction in the Tropics

Derek J. Posselt, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and E. M. Wilcox and T. Yuan

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4B.5

Automatic Tracking and Stereo Reconstruction of Deep-Convective Cloud Tops

Rusen Oktem, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4B.6

Representing effects of aqueous-phase reactions in shallow cumuli in global models

Ji Nie, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and Z. Kuang, D. J. Jacob, and J. Guo

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4B.7

Unified Convection Parameterizations: A Stochastic Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (EDMF) Approach

Joao Teixeira, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and K. Suselj, K. suzuki, and M. Witek

5:45 PM

4B.8

Parameterizing large-scale dynamics in single-column models with the weak-pressure-gradient approximation

Jacob P. Edman, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps

Recorded Presentation

Session 4C

Tropical Cyclone Genesis IV

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ.

4C.1

Multi-scale Interactive Genesis of TC05A (2011) over the Equatorial Indian Ocean: An Observational Analysis

4:15 PM

4C.2

Tropical cyclone formations in the South China Sea associated with the strong northeasterly monsoons

Cheng-Shang Lee, National Taiwan University and Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4C.3

Influence of Tropical Equatorial Waves on the Formation of Super Typhoon Megi (2010)

Juan Fang, Nanjing University, Najing, China; and F. Zhang

4:45 PM

4C.4

Influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough on Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Atlantic Basin

Steven J. Fuhrman, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4C.5

The Decay of Tropical Storm Gaston (2010)

Saska Gjorgjievska, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4C.6

Caribbean Waves as precursor systems of late season hurricane formation

Victor M. Torres, University, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.1 MB)

5:30 PM

4C.7

Impact of Northern Low-level Wave Mergers on the Pre-genesis Development of Atlantic Tropical Easterly Waves

Isaac E. Hankes, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and Z. Wang

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

4C.8

Upper-Tropospheric Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation in the North Atlantic Basin

Alicia M. Bentley, University at Albany, State University of New York, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.8 MB)

Session 4D

Catastrophe Modeling & Other Industry Topics

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation

4:00 PM

4D.1

Predicting Cyclone Damage Potential from Days out to Decades

James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Holland

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4D.2

A Near-term Typhoon Risk Model for the Western North Pacific Basin

Annes V. Haseemkunju, EQECAT INC., Oakland, CA; and D. F. Smith

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4D.3

Medium-Term Hurricane Catastrophe Models: Validation and 5 Year Forecast

Alison L. Dobbin, RMS, London, United Kingdom; and P. S. Wilson

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4D.4

Statistics of Hurricane Damage in the US

Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and J. I. Henandez

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (386.0 kB)

5:00 PM

4D.5

An Idealized Hurricane Catastrophe Model

Javiera I. Hernandez, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (454.3 kB)

5:15 PM

4D.6

20 Years of the Risk Prediction Initiative, and Beyond

Mark P. Guishard, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, St. George's, Bermuda

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4D.7

Hurricane measurements and modeling for offshore wind farm development

Mark Powell, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Murillo and S. Cocke

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

4D.8

EQECAT's Modeling of the Windfield of Superstorm Sandy-2012

Justin Brolley, CoreLogic, Oakland, CA; and D. F. Smith, J. Mangano, and A. Haseemkunju

Ice Breaker Reception

Location: Tiki Pavilion/Grand Plaza Fountain (Town and Country Resort )

Session S1

Field Program Overviews

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Patrick Harr, Jupiter Technologies

8:00 PM

S1.1

Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): Results from the 2012 and 2013 deployments

Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. A. Newman

Recorded Presentation

8:30 PM

S1.2

CINDY/DYNAMO/AMIE/LASP Field Campaign: A Biennial Report (Invited Presentation)

Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and K. Yoneyama and C. N. Long

Recorded Presentation

9:00 PM

S1.3

Understanding and Predicting the Impact of Outflow on Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Structure (Invited Presentation)

Ronald Ferek, ONR, Arlington, VA; and D. Eleuterio

Recorded Presentation

Session 5A

Observing Systems and Strategies

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert Atlas, NOAA/AOML

8:00 AM

5A.1

Developing a Surface-Based Ground Truth Dataset for Tropical Cyclones Outside of the Atlantic

Derrick Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5A.2

Performance of the National Data Buoy Center's (NDBC) Stations during Hurricane/Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy and Resulting Technology Development

Richard H. Bouchard, NOAA/NDBC, Stennis Space Center, MS; and H. H. Portmann, K. O'Neil, C. Kohler, R. Hervey, and L. LeBlanc

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5A.3

Using the Absence of Profiler Reflectivity to Study Stratocumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layer Processes

Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and P. E. Johnston

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5A.4

A statistical test to determine the minimum threshold for open-loop tracking of GNSS radio-occultation signals

Kuo-Nung Wang, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. L. Garrison, B. J. Murphy, J. S. Haase, and P. Muradyan

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5A.5

Enhanced Spatial & Temporal Sampling of Air/Sea Interaction in Tropical Cyclones by the NASA CYGNSS Mission

Christopher Ruf, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and M. P. Clarizia, A. O'Brien, J. T. Johnson, A. Ridley, and Y. Yi

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5A.6

Evaluation and Validation of CYGNSS Winds

Zorana Jelenak, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD; and P. Chang, S. Soisuvarn, A. O'Brien, A. Ridley, D. J. Posselt, M. P. Clarizia, and C. S. Ruf

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5A.7

Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology: NOAA's multi-year plan to deploy the NASA Global Hawk aircraft for high impact weather

Michael Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. A. Wick and R. E. Hood

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5A.8

Observing hurricanes and severe storms with a geostationary microwave sounder

Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL, Pasadena, CA

Session 5B

Dynamo/CINDY2011 I

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Matthew Janiga, NRL; Jian Ling, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP)

8:00 AM

5B.1

Propagating vs. Stationary Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Tropical Atmosphere: What May Have Caused the Difference?

Qi Hu, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5B.2

Diversity of the MJO since 1974 compared with events during TOGA COARE and CINDY/DYNAMO

George N. Kiladis, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias and K. Kikuchi

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5B.3

Multiscale Interaction in MJO Initiation over the Tropical Indian Ocean: DYNAMO and Beyond

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kerns

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5B.4

Synoptic perturbations and the MJO during the Cindy-Dynamo experiment

jean Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris, France; and R. Roca

Recorded Presentation

5B.5

High frequency tropical waves and MJO initiation

9:00 AM

5B.5A

The Moist Static Energy Budget in NCAR CAM5 Hindcasts during DYNAMO

Walter Hannah, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. Maloney

9:15 AM

5B.6

Preconditioning of convective coupled Kelvin waves on the CINDY/DYNAMO MJO propagation

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. May, M. Flatau, J. Schmidt, and J. D. Doyle

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5B.7

Characteristics of Convection during DYNAMO Inferred from Large-scale Heat and Moisture Budget Analyses

Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. Johnson and M. Katsumata

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5B.8

Diabatic and Divergence Profiles from SMARTR

Fiaz Ahmed, Texas A&M University, Bryan, TX; and C. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

Dynamo Hindcasts with SP-CAM: Presented by Walter Hannah

Recorded Presentation

Session 5C

Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis and History

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS

5C.1 will now be presented as Poster 164A

8:00 AM

5C.1A

Using Historical Data to Inform a General-Audience-Level Narrative of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938

Lourdes B. Avilés, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5C.2

Cluster Analysis of Philippine Tropical Cyclones

Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie, P. J. Lamb, and M. Richman

8:30 AM

5C.3

The Historical Record of Hong Kong Typhoons Since the Early Nineteenth Century

Cary J. Mock, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5C.4

Estimation on the Compound Hazard Severity of Tropical Cyclones over Coastal China during 1949-2012 with Copula Function

Yanting Ye, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, Beijing, China; and W. Fang

9:00 AM

5C.5

Toward a Homogeneous Global Tropical Cyclone Intensity Record

Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina at Asheville, Asheville, NC; and K. R. Knapp, C. J. Schreck III, S. E. Stevens, J. P. Kossin, P. W. Thorne, P. A. Hennon, M. C. Kruk, and J. Rennie

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5C.6

Reanalysis of the 1955-1964 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Sandy Delgado, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby and C. W. Landsea

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (143.6 kB)

9:30 AM

5C.7

The Internal Structure of 1969 Hurricane Camille for the Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project

Margaret E. Kieper, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and C. Landsea and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5C.8

A Reanalysis of 1969's Hurricane Camille

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and M. E. Kieper and J. L. Beven II

Recorded Presentation

Session 5D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change I

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany/SUNY

8:00 AM

5D.1

Using morphometric analysis of tropical cyclone structures in a new passive microwave imagery dataset to diagnose and predict intensity

Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5D.2

Multiscale Structure and Evolution of Earl (2010) during Rapid Intensification

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. D. Reasor and J. Zhang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

8:30 AM

5D.3

Investigation of Lightning Structure during the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010)

Stephanie N. Stevenson, University at Albany - SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (10.4 MB)

8:45 AM

5D.4

Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones: A Comparison of Flight Level and Surface Winds

Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5D.5

Development of Intense Helicity and Convective Bursts in Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

Yongqing Wang, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, KLME, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; and C. Xin

9:15 AM

5D.6

Evaluating Different Convective Indicators of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification: The Case of Hurricane Earl (2010)

Gabriel Susca-Lopata, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser and R. F. Rogers

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5D.7

Estimates of Eyewall net latent heat release from airborne radar measurements

Gary M. Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii; and C. E. Barnes

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5D.8

On the role of asymmetric convective bursts to the problem of hurricane intensification. Radiation of vortex Rossby waves and wave-mean flow interactions

Konstantinos Menelaou, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and P. M. K. Yau

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Session 6A

Data Assimilation I

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sharan Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

10:30 AM

6A.1

Ensemble Kalman Assimilation of Global-Hawk-based Data from Tropical Cyclones

Jason Sippel, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and F. Zhang, Y. Weng, G. M. Heymsfield, L. Tian, and S. Braun

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6A.2

MISR observed cloud-tracked winds over tropical cyclones and their positive forecast impact in NAVGEM simulation of Hurricane Sandy

Kevin J. Mueller, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and N. Baker and M. Garay

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6A.3

Displaced Ensemble variational assimilation to incorporate microwave imager brightness temperatures into a cloud-resolving model for Typhoon Conson

Kazumasa Aonashi, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Recorded Presentation

Handout (8.6 MB)

11:15 AM

6A.4

Influence of assimilating AIRS temperature and moisture soundings on the analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclone track and structure

Ting-Chi Wu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, J. Li, C. S. Velden, H. Liu, and J. Anderson

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6A.5

Assimilation of Non-Local Radio Occultation Measurements and its Impact on WRF Model Prediction of Hurricane Earl in 2010

Xue Meng Chen, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA; and S. H. Chen, S. Y. Chen, and C. Y. Huang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (513.9 kB)

11:45 AM

6A.6

A Balanced Vortex approach to Improving the Initial Condition and Diagnosing Forecasts in the Hurricane Research Weather and Forecasting Model

Kathryn J. Sellwood, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. Vukicevic

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6A.7

A Robust Observation Operator and Associated Background Covariances to Assimilate Microwave Radiances into Cloud-permitting Models

Ziad S. Haddad, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. Steward, T. Vukicevic, and S. Hristova-Veleva

Handout (11.8 MB)

Session 6B

Dynamo/Cindy 2011 II

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

10:30 AM

6B.1

Investigation of the island effect on mixed layer top and transition layer top elevations using Bragg Scattering Layer (BSL) analysis of clear-air S-Pol radar retrievals at the Gan site during CINDY2011/DYNAMO/AMIE

Jennifer L. Davison, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6B.2

Boundary Layer and Air-Sea Interaction in Tropical Convection Using Synthesized Measurements from the NOAA WP-3D

Qing Wang, NPS, Monterey, CA; and D. P. Allappattu, D. Khelif, N. Guy, D. P. Jorgensen, M. K. Witte, P. Y. Chuang, and C. J. Zappa

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6B.3

A Diagnosis of Boundary Layer Moistening Processes for Madden-Julian Oscillations During DYNAMO IOP

Kai-Chih Tseng, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Sui

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6B.4

Atmosphere Ocean Interaction in the MJO and its Embedded Convective Disturbances

S. P. de Szoeke, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and J. Marion and C. W. Fairall

11:30 AM

6B.5

Air-Sea Interaction during suppressed and active MJO phases in the Indian Ocean

Djamal Khelif, University, Irvine, CA; and Q. Wang, D. P. Jorgensen, and R. T. Yamaguchi

11:45 AM

6B.6

The ocean diurnal warm layer during CINDY–DYNAMO and its role in air–sea interaction and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Dariusz B. Baranowski, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland; and A. Matthews, K. Heywood, S. Schmidtko, and P. J. Flatau

Recorded Presentation

6B.7

MJO variations in salinity and barrier-layer thickness in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean

12:00 PM

6B.7A

Cloud populations, vertical structure and their periodicity at the south of the equatorial Indian Ocean during CINDY2011

Masaki Katsumata, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan

Recorded Presentation

Session 6C

Tropical Cyclone/Large Scale Interactions

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ryan Truchelut, Florida State University

10:30 AM

6C.1

Study of Mechanisms for the Decadal Variation of the Relationship between the Frenquency of Northwest Pacific Intense TC and ENSO

Li Tao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Y. Wang and T. Jin

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6C.2

Decadal Variarions of Intense Tropical Cylcones Over the Western North Pacific

Haikun Zhao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and L. Wu

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (896.1 kB)

Handout (2.4 MB)

11:00 AM

6C.3

Relative Roles of ISO Circulation and Moisture Impacts in Tropical Cyclone Development in Western North Pacific

Tim Li, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI; and X. Cao, W. Chen, and M. Peng

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6C.4

The Influence of ENSO on the Development of Tropical Cloud Clusters in the Western North Pacific

Hsu-Feng Teng, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee and H. H. Hsu

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6C.5

Simulated Impacts of Two Types of El Nino on the Tropical Cyclone Activity over Northwest Pacific

Ya-Hui Chang, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. T. Chen and J. Y. Yu

11:45 AM

6C.6

The role of tropical cyclones in cross-equatorial total energy transports

Benjamin Alan Schenkel, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser, L. F. Bosart, and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.7 MB)

12:00 PM

6C.7

The sensitivity of tropical cyclone activity to off-equatorial thermal forcing in aquaplanet simulations

Andrew P. Ballinger, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. M. Merlis, I. M. Held, and M. Zhao

Session 6D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change II

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

10:30 AM

6D.1

Distributions of convection in rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones

Cheng Tao, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (892.2 kB)

10:45 AM

6D.2

How is the intensity change of tropical cyclones related to the location of deep convection and rainfall with respect to the radius of maximum winds?

George R. Alvey III, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Zawislak and E. Zipser

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6D.3

Dependence of tropical cyclone intensification rate and size change on the radial tangential wind profile of the initial vortex —Results from specified diabatic heating

Junyao Heng, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang

11:15 AM

6D.4

Characterization of the Dynamical Role of Convection in two Simulated Episodes of Rapid Intensification

Daniel S. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. W. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (8.9 MB)

11:30 AM

6D.5

What Caused the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010)?

Chuan-Chieh Chang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6D.6

Sensitivity of developing tropical cyclones to initial vortex depth and the height of environmental dry air

Peter M. Finocchio, University of Miami - RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (330.4 kB)

12:00 PM

6D.7

Intensification of an Asymmetric, Sheared Tropical Cyclone in a WRF Simulation

Leon T. Nguyen, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Committee Luncheon

Location: Sunset (Town and Country Resort )

Lunch

Session 7A

Data Assimilation II

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ.

1:30 PM

7A.1

Assimilation of supplemental observations during tropical cyclones in the NCEP Hybrid Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme

Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and D. T. Kleist and S. J. Majumdar

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.5 MB)

1:45 PM

7A.2

Testing and Evaluation of the GSI-Hybrid Data Assimilation and its Applications for high resolution tropical storm Forecasts

Chunhua Zhou, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Shao, L. Bernardet, I. Jankov, J. S. Whitaker, M. Tong, and J. C. Derber

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7A.3

Adjoint-Based Analysis of Observation Impact on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Brett T. Hoover, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden and R. H. Langland

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

Handout (2.2 MB)

2:15 PM

7A.4

Current and Future Observations and Strategies to Improve Tropical Cyclone Predictions

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. D. Doyle and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7A.5

Observing System Simulation Experiments to evaluate the impact of remotely sensed data on hurricane prediction

Robert Atlas, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and T. Vukicevic, L. Bucci, B. Annane, A. Aksoy, J. Delgado, X. Zhang, and S. Gopalakrishnan

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7A.6

Influence of ocean surface wind observations on numerical forecasts of hurricanes using an ensemble Kalman filter

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and H. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7A.7

Analysis of Surface Wind Diurnal Cycles in Tropical Regions using Mooring Observations and the CCMP Product

Xiaochun Wang, JIFRESSE, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA ; and K. Zhu, C. K. Shum, and J. Johnson

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (741.2 kB)

Handout (741.2 kB)

Session 7B

Dynamo/Cindy 2011 III

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Jennifer L. Davison, University of Louisville; Zhe Feng, PNNL

1:30 PM

7B.1

A Case Study of Shallow Cumulus Clouds in DYNAMO

Denny alappattu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and Q. Wang, D. Khelif, N. Guy, D. P. Jorgensen, M. K. Witte, P. Y. Chuang, and C. J. Zappa

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7B.2

Shallow Convection in the MJO

David Zermeno, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7B.3

Observed moisture variations associated with shallow convection

Hugo Bellenger, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka-city, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, T. Nishizawa, R. Shirooka, and K. Yasunaga

2:15 PM

7B.4

Cloud structure and organization under suppressed conditions during DYNAMO/AMIE

Angela K. Rowe, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7B.5

Advection of Dry Air by Transient Eddies within an MJO

Kazuaki Yasunaga, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7B.6

Moistening, Convection, and the Diurnal Cycle during the Pre-onset Periods in DYNAMO

James H. Ruppert Jr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson and P. E. Ciesielski

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7B.7

Moistening Processes Before the Convective Initiation of Madden-Julian Oscillation Events During the CINDY2011/DYNAMO Period

Tomoe Nasuno, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and T. Li, K. Kikuchi, H. Miura, T. Miyakawa, and M. Satoh

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

7B.8

Evolution of Humidity and Convection Prior to MJO Onset and Their Sensitivities to Upper-Tropospheric Equatorial Wave Dynamics

Scott W. Powell, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (747.6 kB)

Session 7C

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change I

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center

1:30 PM

7C.1

Investigating Tropical Cyclones and Global Teleconnections Using High-Resolution Climate Model and Reanalysis Data

Alison Cobb, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and P. L. Vidale, K. I. Hodges, M. J. Roberts, and J. Strachan

Recorded Presentation

7C.2

Recent Advances in Global Tropical Cyclone Trend Detection and Attribution

1:45 PM

7C.2A

Tropical Cyclone Experiments in the Community Atmosphere Model

Kevin A. Reed, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. T. Bacmeister, M. F. Wehner, and B. Medeiros

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7C.3

Projecting end-of-century North Atlantic Hurricane Activity using Forecast Statistical Models

Jhordanne J. Jones, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston, Jamaica; and T. S. Stephenson and M. A. Taylor

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7C.4

Projected changes in late 21st century tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP5 models

Kevin J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and S. Chand, J. L. McBride, H. Ye, and R. A. Dare

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (244.9 kB)

Paper 7C.5 will now be presented as poster 111A

2:30 PM

7C.5A

Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Activity

Chana D. Seitz, COAPS (Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies), Tallahassee, FL; and T. LaRow

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7C.6

Impact of Climate Change on the Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones

Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and T. Teng-Ping, C. T. Cheng, and A. Kitoh

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7C.7

Future Changes in the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by a Multi-Decadal Simulation with a 16-km Global Atmospheric GCM

Julia V. Manganello, COLA, Fairfax, VA; and K. I. Hodges, B. Dirmeyer, J. L. Kinter III, B. A. Cash, L. Marx, T. Jung, D. Achuthavarier, J. M. Adams, E. L. Altshuler, X. Y. Huang, E. K. Jin, P. Towers, and N. Wedi

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.1 MB)

3:15 PM

7C.8

Simulation of the Present and Future Projection of Seasonal Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activities with a Regional Climate Model

Teng-Ping Tzeng, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Lee, H. C. Liang, C. T. Chen, and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

Session 7D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change III

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Mark DeMaria, NHC

1:30 PM

7D.1

Environmental Helicity and its Impact on Development and Intensification in Tropical Cyclones

Matthew Onderlinde, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Nolan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (662.1 kB)

1:45 PM

7D.2

On the sensitivity of TC intensification under upper-level trough forcing

Marie-Dominique Leroux, Météo-France, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion; and M. Plu and F. Roux

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

2:00 PM

7D.3

Influence of Amplifying Rossby Waves on Tropical Cyclone Intensity,

Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and C. M. Nguyen, M. Reeder, and M. D. E. Leroux

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7D.4

Synoptic Flow Patterns and Large-scale Characteristics associated with Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in South China Sea

Xiaomin Chen, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, HI; and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7D.5

Influence of Storm Relative Flow (SRF) on Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones

Yuqing Wang, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, HI; and Y. Rao

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7D.6

A numerical study of the rapid intensification of Typhoon Bopha (2012)

Yunjie Rao, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7D.7

Environmental Influences on the Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Shoujuan Shu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, PA, China; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

7D.8

The Rapid Collapse of Hurricane Felicia (2009) near Hawaii

Brandon Bukunt, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Poster Session P1

Poster Session I

Location: Golden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

1

Vertical Shift of Stable Layers under the Different MJO Phases

Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan

2

Heating experiments in CAM4 and the role of the background environment in MJO propagation

Fiaz Ahmed, Texas A&M University, Bryan, TX; and C. Schumacher

3

A numerical study of the October and November DYNAMO MJO events using a regional model

Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and F. Zhang

4

Stochastic Forcings Associated with MJO Initiation during DYNAMO

Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and C. Penland

Handout (12.2 MB)

5

Intraseasonal Forecasting of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone 05

Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, J. Doyle, P. May, S. Chen, M. Flatau, and L. W. O'Neill

6

Characteristics of satellite derived Latent Heating variability associated with the MJO over the Indian and West Pacific Ocean

Hannah C. Barnes, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr. and M. Zuluaga

7

Nonlinear traveling wave solution for the MJO skeleton model

Shengqian Chen, University of Wisconsin at Madison, Madison, WI; and S. N. Stechmann

Handout (152.2 kB)

8

Rainfall and Convection Asymmetries of Tropical Cyclones from TRMM Precipitation Radar Observations

Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and Y. Pei and J. Zagrodnik

9

The Walker Circulation and the MJO Skeleton: Comparison of Model and Observations

H. Reed Ogrosky, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and S. Stechmann

10

Influence of Air-Sea Interactions on the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Presence and Absence of Extratropical Forcing

Xi Chen, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray

11

The Variability of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Anomalous Convective Envelopes Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Naoko Sakaeda, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. E. Roundy

12

Moisture Cycle of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, convectively-coupled Kelvin waves, and a subset of waves in between

Jennifer A. Gahtan, University at Albany-SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Handout (2.7 MB)

13

Exploring the utility of the planned CYGNSS mission for investigating the initiation and development of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Timothy J. Lang, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. Mecikalski, X. Li, T. Chronis, W. A. Brewer, J. Churnside, and S. Rutledge

14

Climatological analysis of tropical cyclone eye and inner-core structure from a global satellite-based passive microwave dataset

Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart, J. Hawkins, C. Velden, and A. Wimmers

15

Global Tropical Cyclone Storm Size and Environmental Pressure Climatology using CFSR

Jason Butke, AIR Worldwide Corp, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis and K. A. Hill

16

Initial condition sensitivity of the structure of Hurricane Irene (2011)

Jason W. Godwin, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar

17

Further Development and Applications of an Efficient and Configurable Vortex Initialization Technique

Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and E. Hendricks, E. Rappin, S. J. Majumdar, D. Nolan, and J. D. Doyle

18

Understanding the Impacts of Assimilating the Atmospheric Motion Vectors on the Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track and Structure

Ting-Chi Wu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, C. S. Velden, H. Liu, and J. Anderson

19

Evaluation of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability and Moist Processes in NOGAPS Analyses and Short-term Forecasts

Weiwei Li, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, M. Peng, and J. A. Ridout

20

Taiwan Local Circulation with Mountain Effect during Cold Surge Period

Chi-Chang Liao, National Denfense University, Taipei, Taiwan

Handout (2.8 MB)

21

Precipitation in the Wet Tropics of Queensland, Australia

Michael J. Murphy Jr., Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and S. T. Siems

22

Calibration of the Stochastic Multicloud Model using Bayesian Inference

23

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Mesoscale Model Simulations of Future Precipitation Climate in the Central Andes

Stephen D. Nicholls, NASA/GSFC and Maryland Office of Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Greenbelt, MD; and K. I. Mohr

24

The effect of greenhouse-gas-induced changes in SST on the annual cycle of zonal mean tropical precipitation

John G. Dwyer, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. Biasutti and A. H. Sobel

25

Investigating Saharan Heat Low Biases in the CMIP5 Dataset

Ross D. Dixon, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont

26

Idealized Simulations of Monsoon Depressions

Varun S. Murthy, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and W. R. Boos

27

Poleward Shift in Monsoon Low Level Jetstream under Global Warming

Sandeep Sukumaran, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and A. M. Ravindran

Handout (1.6 MB)

28

Convective Cloud-Radiative and Microphysical Impacts from Precipitating Hydrometeors in South Asian Summer Monsoon

29

Employing the Advanced Dvorak Technique to Deduce Historical Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin, C. S. Velden, and K. R. Knapp

30

Update on the SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) Algorithm for Estimating TC Intensity

Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. Herndon

31

Passive Microwave Signatures of Tropical Cyclone Symmetry as Related to Intensity Change

Daniel S. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. W. Nesbitt

32

An Analysis of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones Derived from 13 Years of TRMM Data

Michael Fischer, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Zagrodnik, H. Jiang, and M. E. Kieper

33

Real-time Verification of Passive Microwave Imagery-Based Statistical Models of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. Kaplan, A. Wimmers, and J. P. Kossin

34

An Update on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation from Satellite Microwave Sounders

Derrick Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

35

Relationship of tropical cyclone intensity and intensity change with precipitation and structural properties based on a decade of microwave sounder observations

Ali Behrangi, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and L. Wu and B. H. Lambrigtsen

36

Further Development and Validation of ARCHER: The Satellite-Based Automated TC Center-Fixing Algorithm

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Velden

37

Comparisons and Evaluations between the Oceansat-2 (OSCAT) and ASCAT Scatterometers over Tropical Cyclones

Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam

Manuscript (928.4 kB)

Handout (3.8 MB)

38

A study of the impact of dust on tropical storms using satellite measurements

Yongxiang Hu, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and K. M. Xu

39

The Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center

John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and M. J. Brennan, H. D. Cobb III, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, A. B. Schumacher, C. S. Velden, S. A. Monette, J. P. Dunion, G. J. Jedlovec, K. K. Fuell, and M. J. Folmer

40

Diurnal Pulsing of Lightning in Strong Tropical Cyclones

Stephanie N. Stevenson, University at Albany - State University of New York, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero and J. P. Dunion

41

Wave and Wind Direction Effects on SFMR Brightness Temperatures

Heather M. Holbach, Florida State University; and E. Uhlhorn and M. A. Bourassa

42

HIWRAP Flights During HS3-2013

Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Mclinden, M. Coon, L. Li, S. Guimond, A. C. Didlake Jr., A. E. Emory, and L. Tian

43

HIWRAP observations from the Hurricane and Severe Sentinel (HS3) campaign: Comparing retrieval techniques

Anthony C. Didlake Jr., NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield, L. Tian, and S. Guimond

44

Improving the instantaneous vertical profiling of precipitation from spaceborne radiometers using high sensitivity ground based radar measurements

Sahra Kacimi, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and Z. Haddad and J. Turk

45

HIWRAP Analysis of Tropical Cyclones during GRIP

Stephen Guimond, NASA / GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield and M. McLinden

46

VAD and dual-Doppler Analysis of Wind Fields from Doppler Velocity Observed by HIWRAP

Lin Tian, GESTAR/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Heymsfield and S. Guimond

47

Validation of Automated Cloud Height Algorithm (ACHA) Cloud Top Heights in Tropical Cyclones using Observations from the NASA Global Hawk

Sarah A. Monette, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, A. Heidinger, E. J. Zipser, D. J. Cecil, P. G. Black, and S. A. Braun

48

Application of Consistent Quality Control Procedures to Provide 17-year (1996-2012) High Resolution GPS Dropsonde Data

Kathryn Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Wang and D. Behringer

49

Mechanism Governing the Size of Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices

Hiroki Tsuji, Kyushu University, Fukuoka-shi, Fukuoka-ken, Japan; and H. Itoh

50

Influence of the large-scale atmospheric environment on North Atlantic tropical cyclone size

50A

A new operational convection-permitting NWP system for tropical cyclone forecasting in the SW Indian Ocean

Olivier Bousquet, LACy (UMR 8105), Saint-Denis, Reunion; and D. A. Mékiès, S. Bielli, M. D. Leroux, D. Barbary, C. Barthe, R. Lee-Ah-Siem, G. Faure, T. Montmerle, P. Brousseau, and M. Plu

Handout (1.2 MB)

51

Improving Tropical Cyclone Guidance Tools by Accounting for Variations in Size

John Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, S. Longmore, and R. DeMaria

Manuscript (699.9 kB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

52

How Well Can We Detect Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Reanalyses Data?

52A

Observed Hurricane Wind Speed Asymmetries and Relationships to Motion and Environmental Shear

Eric Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and B. W. Klotz, T. Vukicevic, P. Reasor, and R. F. Rogers

53

A 32-year reanalysis intercomparison of tropical cyclone structure in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic

Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and E. A. Ritchie

Manuscript (2.0 MB)

54

What controls the size of a tropical cyclone?

Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and D. Schönemann and M. Lee

55

The influence of vertical resolution to tropical cyclone boundary layer wind structure in HWRF

Eric K. W. Ng, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan

56

National Hurricane Center Wind Radii Forecast Verification

John P. Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and C. W. Landsea

Handout (1.7 MB)

57

Analysis of model derived 150 mb tropical cyclone core climatology for NOAA Gulfstream G-IV TDR missions

58

Dependency of U.S. Hurricane Economic Loss on Maximum Wind Speed and Storm Size

Alice Ruilin Zhai, La Canada High School, La Canada Flintridge, CA; and J. Jiang

Manuscript (1.0 MB)

Handout (4.1 MB)

59

Storm Surge Damage to Buildings

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX

Manuscript (692.2 kB)

60

A Mechanism of Coupled Circulation Leading to the Secondary Eyewall Formation Associated with Hurricane Katrina (2005) Using Real and Idealized Numerical Simulations

José M. García-Rivera, I. M. Systems Group, Rockville, MD; and Y. L. Lin and Y. Rastigejev

61

Left Hand Side Wind Maxima in North Atlantic and Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and J. Butke and K. Hill

Handout (1.4 MB)

Poster 62 will now be presented as 13A.5A

Poster 62A will also be presented as 5B.5A (All information and uploaded files can be found under 5B.5A)

63

A radar and surface data analysis of a warm front in Hurricane Ida (2009)

Kelly Neugent, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. Kimball

64

Dynamic Energy Efficiency of Heat and of Momentum in Balanced Vortex

Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. H. Chen, T. Y. Hsu, and E. A. Hendricks

65

Effects of Domain Choice on the Simulation of Tropical Storms Activity in the WRF 30-km Regional Climate Model

Chih-Hua Tsou, Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; and M. K. Tsai

66

The Warm Core Structure of Hurricane Earl (2010): Observations and Simulations

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and F. Zhang

67

Hurricane Karl's (2010) Warm Core Evolution: An Investigation of Inner Core Thermodynamic and Convective Properties

George R. Alvey III, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser, B. H. Lambrigtsen, and S. T. Brown

Poster 68 has been moved. New paper number 7C.2A

69

HEDAS Vortex-Scale Data Assimilation with Aircraft and Satellite Retrieval Observations: Summary of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Results

Altug Aksoy, AOML, Miami, FL; and S. Aberson, K. Sellwood, B. W. Klotz, T. Vukicevic, and C. S. Velden

70

A high resolution analysis of polar low types: Structural and dynamical comparisons to tropical cyclones

Kyle Ahern, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

71

Impact of ice-phase microphysics on inner-core processes in simulated extremely intense tropical cyclones

Sachie Kanada, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and A. Wada and K. Tsuboki

Manuscript (935.1 kB)

Handout (2.5 MB)

72

Impact of vertical turbulent mixing on inner-core asymmetric structure and vortex Rossby wave propagation of tropical cyclones

Cen Gao, Dept. of Earth and Environment, International Hurricane Research Center, MIAMI, FL; and P. Zhu

73

Asymmetric air streams through tropical cyclones in vertical wind shear: Analysis of the secondary circulation based on trajectory clustering

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany; and C. Hundt and E. Schömer

74

Meso-β-scale environment for the formation of a stationary band complex in idealized numerical experiments

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery

75

Relationships Between Convective Asymmetry, Imbalance and Intensity in Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclones on the F-Plane

David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO

76

Vorticity dynamics of Typhoon Nuri (2008) evaluated from different model datasets

Julio C. Marin, Universidad de Valparaiso, Valparaiso, Chile; and D. J. Raymond and D. Pozo

77

Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Tropical Cyclone Prediction

Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Kopera, F. X. Giraldo, Q. Jiang, J. D. Doyle, and M. Peng

78

Tropical Cyclone - Environment interaction in the UTLS

Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI

79

Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structures in the North American Regional Reanalysis

Stephanie E. Zick, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas

Handout (1.8 MB)

80

An examination of the National Hurricane Center Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico

John Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and H. Vazquez and J. G. Estupiñán

81

An integrated measure of tropical cyclone track forecast performance

Hui Yu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA, Shanghai, China; and G. Chen and B. G. Brown

82

An Improved Method for Generating Ensembles of Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Jeffrey David Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

Manuscript (269.6 kB)

83

Influence of Topography on Tropical Cyclone Track – Idealized Simulations and Dual-Doppler Radar Analysis

Tsung-Han Li, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, C. K. Yu, and S. R. Lin

84

Control Parameters for Track Continuity of Cyclones Passing over the Southern-Central Appalachian Mountains

Riem Rostom, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin

85

Environmental and Orographic Effects on Track Deflection of Idealized Tropical Cyclones

Shu-Hua Chen, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA; and Y. L. Lin

86

Applications of the mean recentering scheme to improve the typhoon track forecast. A case study of Typhoon Namadol (2011)

Chih-Chien Chang, National Central University, Jhongli City, Taiwan; and S. C. Yang

87

Objective Consensus Typhoon Track Forecasting Using Multimodel Superensemble

Sanghee Jun, National Typhoon Center / KMA, Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. Kim, W. J. Lee, K. Y. Byun, K. H. Chang, and D. S. Shin

Handout (1.3 MB)

88

Typhoon Fanapi (2010) and its Interaction with Taiwan Terrain – Evaluation of the Uncertainty in Track and Rainfall Simulations

Yu-Feng Lin, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and T. H. Yen

89

Statistics of Binary Tropical Cyclones in Western North Pacific during 1950-2012

90

A Study for Determination of the Low Level Circulation Center of Tropical Cyclones in a Weakening Stage with Emphasis on Microwave and Radar Observations

Jinyeon Kim, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seogwipo-si ,Jeju-do, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. Kim, Y. M. Cha, K. H. Chang, H. M. Lee, and D. S. Shin

91

Development and Evaluation of the Second Hurricane Nature Run Using the Joint OSSE Nature Run and the WRF Model

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Mattocks

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (2.6 MB)

92

Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

Paul A. Kucera, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. L. Williams, B. G. Brown, and L. Nance

93

An Update on COAMPS-TC Performance: New Validation Tools and Results for Recent Real-time and Retrospective Forecasts

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, Y. Jin, and R. M. Hodur

94

Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Center Identification Methods in Numerical Models

Leon T. Nguyen, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari

95

Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF model at the Developmental Testbed Center

Ligia Bernardet, OAR, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, T. Brown, D. Stark, L. Carson, V. Tallapragada, and S. Trahan

96

Development of a new Tropical Cyclone Verification Toolkit (MET-TC)

Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, T. L. Fowler, P. A. Kucera, B. G. Brown, and L. B. Nance

97

An Overview of Recent COAMPS-TC Advancements

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, J. Moskaitis, S. Chen, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, P. A. Reinecke, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang

98

Evaluation of HWRF for Typhoon Prediction over the western North Pacific Ocean in 2012-2013

Chin-Cheng Tsai, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, NARL, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, D. S. Chen, J. Bao, and L. Y. Chang

99

Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasting of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Beda Luitel, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and G. Villarini and G. A. Vecchi

100

An Examination of the Differences in Tropical Cyclone Pressure-Wind Relationships Among Observations, Model Analyses, and Model Forecasts

Lauren E. Visin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

101

Improving wind profile parameterization to better model large hurricane wind fields

Sylvie Lorsolo, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and A. L. Doggett

102

A Numerical Sensitivity Study on the Energetics of Tropical Cyclone Megi(2010) during Intensification

Rochelle Cayanan Coronel, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan; and M. Sawada and T. Iwasaki

Handout (3.7 MB)

103

Observations of Inner-Core Structure during the Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)

Zachary D. Cornelius, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and S. Reynolds, E. R. Sanabia, and B. S. Barrett

104

Structure of tropical cyclones at the onset of rapid intensification in the HWRF model

Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and V. Tallapragada and W. Hogsett

Handout (1.2 MB)

105

Comparison of the sensitivity of hurricane simulations to convective parameterization and small-scale model noise

Tristan J. Shepherd, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh

Session S2

Hurricane Sandy

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Richard D. Knabb, NOAA/NWS/NHC

7:30 PM

S2.1

Hurricane Sandy: Overview and Impacts (Invited Presentation)

Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

7:45 PM

S2.2

Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012)

Louis L. Lussier III, NCAR, Broomfield, CO

Recorded Presentation

8:00 PM

S2.3

Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model

Bo-Wen Shen, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA; and M. DeMaria, J. L. F. Li, and S. cheung

Handout (3.1 MB)

8:15 PM

S2.4

Understanding Hurricane Sandy's Track and Intensity Changes

Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.0 MB)

8:30 PM

S2.5

Hurricane Sandy (2012): A Multiscale Trough Interaction Perspective

Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and A. M. Bentley, C. N. Helms, and P. P. Papin

Recorded Presentation

Handout (41.1 MB)

8:45 PM

S2.6

Fujiwhara Effect on Track Deflection Associated with Hurricane Sandy (2012) Before Landfalling on the US East Coast

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and J. Spinks, G. M. Smith, and B. W. Shen

Recorded Presentation

9:00 PM

S2.7

1893, 1938, and 2012 (Sandy): Quantifying the role of Fujiwhara interaction on U.S. tropical cyclone landfall risk

Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

9:15 PM

S2.8

How Reproducible are the ECMWF and GFS Hurricane Sandy Forecast Tracks?

Nick P. Bassill, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser

Recorded Presentation

9:30 PM

S2.9

Long range predictability of Sandy-like storms

Shian-Jiann Lin, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and J. H. Chen, L. Harris, B. Xiang, and M. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

Session 8A

NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Project I

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC

8:00 AM

8A.1

A Composite Analysis of the Dynamic and Thermodynamic Structure and Evolution of Tropical Convective Systems

Charles N. Helms, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

8:15 AM

8A.2

The Entropy and Water Budgets in Tropical Cyclones Nadine and Gabrielle

Ana Juracic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond and C. Lopez-Carrillo

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8A.3

Upper-Level Outflow, Predictability, and HS3 Observation Impact

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, P. G. Black, E. A. Hendricks, and P. A. Reinecke

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8A.4

An Examination of the Tropical Cyclone Outflow Layer: NASA HS3 Observations and Comparison with COAMPS-TC Model Predictions

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, E. A. Hendricks, and P. G. Black

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8A.5

Tropical Cyclone Outflow Jets Observed during the 2012-13 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Field Campaign

Peter G. Black, SAIC/NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, J. R. Moskaitis, S. A. Braun, and C. Velden

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8A.6

Interactions between dry air and Hurricane Nadine (2012)

Deanna A. Hence, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

8A.7

Genesis and persistence of Hurricane Nadine (2012) provides multiple opportunities for in situ sampling by unmanned aircraft

Timothy J. Dunkerton, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8A.8

Dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Nadine (2012) evaluated through convection-permitting ensemble analysis and forecasts with NASA HS3 field campaign observations

Erin B. Munsell, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. Sippel, S. A. Braun, Y. Weng, and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

Session 8B

Dynamo/Cindy 2011 IV

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Emily M. Riley, Colorado State University

8:00 AM

8B.1

The Role of Cumulus Convection in Moistening the Larger-Scale Atmosphere over the Tropical Indian Ocean during CINDY/DYNAMO

Tetsuya Takemi, Kyoto University, Uji, Japan

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

8B.2

Convective Intensity, Morphology, Rainfall Production, and Evolution of Madden-Julian Oscillation over the Central Indian Ocean

Weixin Xu, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. Rutledge

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8B.3

The Nature of Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Active and Suppressed Phases of the MJO: Insights from Aircraft during the DYNAMO Project

David P. Jorgensen, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Guy and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8B.4

MJO events during DYNAMO Field Campaign: Cloud-Resolving Model and Radar Observation Comparisons

Xiaowen Li, Morgan State University, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8B.5

Convection during DYNAMO: Cloud-Resolving Simulations and Radar Observations

Matthew Janiga, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8B.6

Cloud-resolving simulations of the northern DYNAMO sounding array with either imposed or parameterized large scale dynamics

Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel, A. M. Fridlind, and Z. Kuang

9:30 AM

8B.7

The Intermittency of Precipitation and the MJO

Da Yang, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and A. P. Ingersoll

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.8 MB)

9:45 AM

8B.8

Convective aggregation in equatorial case studies

Christopher E. Holloway, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

Session 8C

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change II

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kerry Emanuel, MIT

8:00 AM

8C.1

Vortex Tracking and Tropical Cyclone Genesis Factors in Simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Ryan Alexander Zamora, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. Korty

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.1 MB)

8:15 AM

8C.2

Holocene hurricanes: extending data and models to earlier millennia

Robert Korty, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8C.3

Tropical cyclone frequency in simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

Timothy M. Merlis, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

8:45 AM

8C.4

Downscaling Tropical Cyclones in the Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene

Joseph Galewsky, Univ.of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and S. J. Camargo, R. Korty, and J. Yoo

9:00 AM

8C.5

Growing threat of intense typhoons to East Asia

Doo-Sun R. Park, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. H. Ho and J. H. Kim

9:15 AM

8C.6

Stronger super typhoons in a warmer world

Nam-Young Kang, Florida Stated University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

Manuscript (596.5 kB)

9:30 AM

8C.7

Simulation of Tropical Cyclones with a Cloud-System Resolving Model for Different Equator-to-Pole Temperature Gradients

Alexey Fedorov, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and L. Muir and W. Boos

9:45 AM

8C.8

The effects of imposed stratospheric cooling on the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones in axisymmetric radiative-convective equilibrium

Hamish A. Ramsay, Monash Univ., Clayton, Australia

Session 8D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change IV

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NHC

8:00 AM

8D.1

A Quasi-Equilibrium Theory for Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity

Mark DeMaria, NHC, Miami, FL; and A. B. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

8D.2

Transient Response of Axisymmetric Hurricanes to Sea Surface Temperature Perturbations

Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8D.3

Control of Intense Tropical Cyclones by Upper-Ocean Stratification Variability

Emmanuel M. Vincent, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel, J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, and G. Madec

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8D.4

Thermodynamic and Flux Observations of the Tropical Cyclone Surface Layer

Alex Kowaleski, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (871.7 kB)

Handout (2.9 MB)

9:00 AM

8D.5

‘Category-6' typhoon Haiyan, Ocean Subsurface Warming, and Ocean Coupling Potential Intensity Index

I.-I. Lin, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and I. F. Pun

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8D.6

Investigating the role of environmental humidity on the rapid intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010)

Longtao Wu, UCLA, Pasadena, CA; and H. Su and R. G. Fovell

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

8D.7

Coastal Ocean Impact on Hurricane Irene Intensity

Greg Seroka, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and T. Miles, Y. Xu, S. Glenn, and O. Schofield

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8D.8

The Predictability and Dynamics of the Overland Reintensification of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)

Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Session 9A

NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Project II

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jason Sippel, NASA

10:30 AM

9A.1

Differentiating Tropical Cyclones Exhibiting Strong Updrafts using Combined Satellite, Lightning, and Global Hawk Observations

Sarah A. Monette, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, E. J. Zipser, D. J. Cecil, P. G. Black, S. A. Braun, and G. M. Heymsfield

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9A.2

Exploring Dust Impacts on Tropical Storm Development During HS-3

Edward P. Nowottnick, GESTAR/NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Colarco, A. Da Silva, D. Barahona, D. L. Hlavka, and J. R. Spackman

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9A.3

Variability in African Easterly Waves and interactions with the environment for Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Eastern Atlantic

Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany,, NY; and C. Thorncroft

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.2 MB)

11:15 AM

9A.4

Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone activity in 2012 and 2013

Chris D. Thorncroft, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and A. Brammer

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9A.5

Operational Pouch-Tracking, Model Performance, Kinematics and Thermodynamics of Observed Tropical Systems during NASA HS3 (2011-2013)

Mark A. Boothe, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery and T. J. Dunkerton

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9A.6

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. Biswas, M. W. James, J. B. Roberts, L. Jones, J. Johnson, S. Farrar, S. Sahawneh, C. Ruf, M. Morris, and P. G. Black

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

9A.7

The Global Hawk Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System: Status and Initial Applications

Gary A. Wick, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and T. Hock, M. Black, J. Wang, J. R. Spackman, and R. E. Hood

Recorded Presentation

Session 9B

Dynamo/Cindy 2011 V

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ.; Manuel Zuluaga, University of Washington

10:30 AM

9B.1

Moist static energy budget during CINDY/DYNAMO

Adam H. Sobel, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and S. Wang and D. Kim

10:45 AM

9B.2

Convective Cold Pool Structure and Boundary Layer Recovery Time in DYNAMO

Ajda Savarin, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, B. Kerns, and D. Jorgensen

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9B.3

On the role of cold pool in organization of convection over tropical Indian Ocean during DYNAMO

Zhe Feng, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. Hagos, C. Burleyson, W. A. Brewer, S. P. de Szoeke, and A. K. Rowe

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9B.4

Oceanic influence of atmospheric cold pools during DYNAMO

Elizabeth J. Thompson, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. Rutledge, J. N. Moum, C. W. Fairall, S. P. de Szoeke, and W. A. Brewer

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9B.5

Ship-based Measurements of Atmospheric Cold Pools and Mass Flux Transport in the Indian Ocean from the DYNAMO Field Program

Aditya Choukulkar, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and W. A. Brewer, C. W. Fairall, C. R. Williams, S. P. de Szoeke, P. Zuidema, R. J. Alvarez II, A. M. Weickmann, and R. M. Hardesty

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9B.6

Influence of Sumatra on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclogenesis during DYNAMO

Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski and C. M. Fine

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

9B.7

First Sight of the Upper Tropospheric Humidity Variability during CINDY-DYNAMO : Exploitation of the SAPHIR Measurements

Helene Brogniez, LATMOS, Guyancourt, France; and R. Roca

Recorded Presentation

Session 9D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change V

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NWS/NHC

10:30 AM

9D.1

Composite Ensemble Sensitivity of Atlantic Hurricane Intensification

Bonnie R. Brown, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. J. Hakim

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9D.2

Probabilistic Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Intensity for the North Atlantic

James I. Belanger, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and M. T. Jelinek, J. A. Curry, and P. J. Webster

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9D.3

Application of Ensemble Forecasts to the Study of Tropical Cyclone Intensity: A Case Study of Hurricane Katia (2011)

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.0 MB)

9D.4

A Model-output-calibration-based Consensus Forecast Method for Tropical Cyclone Intensity

11:30 AM

9D.5

Hurricane Intensity Probability Prediction in a Changing Climate: A Multiple-Linear Regression Modeling Approach

Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia University, New York, NY; and M. K. Tippett, S. J. Camargo, and A. H. sobel

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9D.6

Situation-dependent Intensity Skill Metric and Intensity Spread Guidance for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and H. C. Tsai

12:00 PM

9D.7

Applications of Weighted Track Analog Intensity Prediction Scheme for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University Taiwan, New Taipei City,, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry

Session 9C

Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing I

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Unviersity of Wisconsin

10:30 AM

9C.1

New Features and Capabilities of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

Timothy Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9C.2

Automated Tropical Cloud Cluster Tracking and Analysis as a Front-End to the ADT

John Sears, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, T. L. Olander, and J. Cossuth

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9C.3

Tropical Cyclone Surface Pressure Retrieval From Ocean Vector Wind Sensors

Ralph C. Foster, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. Patoux

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9C.4

Improving Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting with JPSS imager and Sounder Data

Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, R. DeMaria, J. F. Dostalek, and J. L. Beven

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

Handout (10.9 MB)

11:30 AM

9C.5

Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates through the Use of Microwave Imagery

Anthony E. Salemi, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD ; and M. A. Turk

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9C.6

Asymmetries of Tropical Cyclone Convection in Different Intensity Change Stages as Derived from Satellite 85 and 37 GHz observations

Yongxian Pei, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (909.7 kB)

9C.7

CYGNSS data and H*Wind surface wind analysis: A data denial experiment

12:00 PM

9C.8

Super Typhoon Haiyan's 170 kt Peak Intensity: has Super Typhoon Tip been Dethroned?

Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Lunch

Session 10A

Tropical Cyclone Rainbands and Precipitation

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University

1:30 PM

10A.1

Spiral Rainbands in Idealized No-Mean-Flow Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

Yumin Moon, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

1:45 PM

10A.2

Dynamics of the stratiform sector of a tropical cyclone rainband

Anthony C. Didlake Jr., NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10A.3

Dual-Doppler Radar Investigation of a Convective Rainband during the Impact of the Southwesterly Monsoonal Flow on the Circulation of Typhoon Morakot (2009)

Chih-Hsien Wei, Chung Cheng Institute of Technology, National Defense University, Daxi township, Taoyuan County, Taiwan; and Y. C. Chuang and T. H. Hor

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10A.4

A Squall-Line-Like Principal Rainband in Typhoon Hagupit (2008) Observed by Airborne Doppler Radar

Xiaowen Tang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and W. C. Lee and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10A.5

Origin and Maintenance of the Long-lasting, Outer Mesoscale Convective System in Typhoon Fengshen (2008)

Buo-Fu Chen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry and C. S. Lee

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10A.6

Remote Effects of Typhoon Vicente (2012) on a Torrential Rain over Beijing on 21 July 2012

Ying Li, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and L. Xue and N. Wei

3:00 PM

10A.7

Impact of Cloud-radiative Processes on Predecessor Rain Events

Omar A. Nava, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and R. G. Fovell and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

3:15 PM

10A.8

Water Budget and Precipitation Efficiency of Typhoon Morakot (2009)

Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and H. L. Huang and C. H. Sui

Recorded Presentation

Session 10B

Dynamo/Cindy 2011 VI

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Angela K. Rowe, Univ. of Washington; Tetsuya Takemi, Kyoto University

1:30 PM

10B.1

Microphysical Characteristics of DYNAMO Convective Systems using In-Situ Airborne Cloud and Precipitation Imaging Probe Data

Nick Guy, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. P. Jorgensen, M. K. Witte, and P. Y. Chuang

Recorded Presentation

Handout (14.6 MB)

1:45 PM

10B.2

A Conceptual Model for the Hydrometeor Structure of Mesoscale Convective Systems during the Active Stage of the MJO

Hannah C. Barnes, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10B.3

Characterization of the microphysics of ice in tropical convection

Audrey Martini, LATMOS-University Versailles Saint-Quentin, Guyancourt, France; and N. Viltard

2:15 PM

10B.4

MJO events during DYNAMO Field Campaign: Sensitivity tests of model resolutions and microphysics schemes

Wei-Kuo Tao, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and X. Li

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10B.5

CINDY2011/DYNAMO MJO case simulated by the global cloud resolving model NICAM

Tomoki Miyakawa, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Satoh, H. Miura, H. Tomita, H. Yashiro, A. T. Noda, Y. Yamada, C. Kodama, M. Kimoto, and K. Yoneyama

2:45 PM

10B.6

Global vs. Local MJO Forecast Skill of the ECMWF model during DYNAMO

Jian Ling, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Beijing, China; and P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. Beljaars, R. Forbes, F. Vitart, M. Ulate, and C. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

10B.7

Extended-range Multi-scale Prediction in the Tropics for the DYNAMO time period

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and X. Hong, J. A. Ridout, J. D. Doyle, and M. Flatau

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

10B.8

Analysis of the MJO-wind speed relationship in the Indian Ocean using observations and models

Emily M. Riley, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. Maloney, S. C. van den Heever, and B. E. Mapes

Recorded Presentation

Session 10C

Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing II

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John A. Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS

1:30 PM

10C.1

Satellite-based Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Capabilities

Jeffrey Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. A. Richardson, J. E. Solbrig, M. Surratt, S. Yang, C. R. Sampson, T. F. Lee, and J. Kent

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10C.2

Relationships between TC intensity and eyewall structure: radial profiles of inner-core IR brightness temperature

Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and E. R. Sanabia and C. M. Fine

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10C.3

Monitoring Eyewall Convection Using a Bispectral Geostationary Satellite Product

Andrew Desnoyers, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii; and G. M. Barnes

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10C.4

A Geostationary Satellite Technique to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Size

Klaus Dolling, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie and J. S. Tyo

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (972.9 kB)

2:30 PM

10C.5

A Comparison of Two Microwave Retrieval Schemes in the Vicinity of Tropical Storms

John F. Dostalek, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and G. Chirokova, K. D. Musgrave, and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10C.6

Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 daily precipitation estimates of tropical cyclones rainfall over the Pacific and Australia region

Yingjun Chen, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and E. Ebert, K. J. E. Walsh, and N. E. Davidson

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.4 MB)

3:00 PM

10C.7

The Megha-Tropiques Mission: first results two years after launch

Remy Roca, CNRS, Toulouse, France

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

10C.8

Use of MADRAS on Megha-Tropiques to study Hurricane Sandy and Typhoon Bophat Evolution

Nicolas Viltard, LATMOS-CNRS, Guyancourt, France; and A. Martini

Session 10D

Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability I

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Paul E. Roundy, University at Albany

1:30 PM

10D.1

Potential predictability of the MJO in the ISVHE multimodel framework

Neena Joseph Mani, JIFRESSE/UCLA and JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA; and J. Y. Lee, D. E. Waliser, B. Wang, and X. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.7 MB)

10D.2

A diagnostic of MJO predictability estimates using observational power spectra

2:00 PM

10D.3

Towards a climatology of fast and slow Madden-Julian Oscillation events

Robert Michael Setzenfand, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10D.4

Water vapor tendency associated with MJO represented in global reanalysis products

Satoru Yokoi, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan

2:30 PM

10D.5

A Convoluted Tale: How Air-Sea Interaction Improves the MJO Simulation in Three GCMs

Charlotte DeMott, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. Stan and D. A. Randall

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10D.6

Some Hindcast Simulations of the MJO: Surprising Sensitivities to the Treatement of Surface Fluxes Under Light Winds

Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

10D.7

The Role of Interactions between Multi-Scale Circulations on the Observed Zonally Averaged Zonal Wind Variability Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Naoko Sakaeda, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

3:15 PM

10D.8

Perturbation pressure depth as a tool for analysis of tropical-extratropical interactions

Kyle S. Griffin, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Session 11A

Numerical Modeling I

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC

4:00 PM

11A.1

2014 upgrades of NOAA's operational hurricane model (HWRF) and it's performance

Young C. Kwon, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11A.2

Upgrades to the Operational GFDL Model Planned for 2014

Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok, M. J. Morin, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, R. Yablonsky, and R. E. Tuleya

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11A.3

The Impact on Tropical Cyclone Predictions of a Major Upgrade to the Met Office Global Model

Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (232.3 kB)

4:45 PM

11A.4

The Upgrade of GRAPES_TYM and its performance in the western North Pacific Ocean in 2013

Jin Zhang, NWPD/NMC/Beijing, Beijing, China; and S. Ma

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11A.5

The improvements in tropical cyclone track prediction by T639L60 of the National Meteorological Center, CMA

Suhong Ma, NWPD/NMC/Beijing, Beijing, China; and A. Qu Sr.

11A.6 will now be presented as Poster 50A

5:15 PM

11A.7

Real-Time Prediction of the Tropics using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Skamarock, J. B. Klemp, D. A. Ahijevych, W. Wang, and M. Duda

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

11A.8

Tropical cyclones in a two-way global-to-regional nested weather-climate model

Lucas M. Harris, NOAA/OAR/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

Session 11B

Climate I

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Shang-Ping Xie, Univesity of California; Leila Carvalho, University of California

4:00 PM

11B.1

Local Changes in the Hadley and Walker Circulations in the last 30 Years

Juliane Schwendike, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; and M. Reeder, G. Berry, and C. Jakob

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11B.2

The influence of regional feedbacks on circulation sensitivity

Nicole Feldl, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and G. H. Roe and D. M. W. Frierson

4:30 PM

11B.3

Zonal Asymmetries in the Widening of the Tropics Under Climate Change

Joseph Andersen, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, Australia; and S. C. Sherwood, L. Shi, and R. Roca

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11B.4

An investigation of the connections between convection, clouds and climate sensitivity in a Global Climate Model

Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11B.5

Connecting tropical cloud dynamics to global climate sensitivity

Steven C. Sherwood, Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, Australia; and S. Bony and J. L. Dufresne

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

11B.6

Cloud-Precipitation-Radiation-Dynamics Interaction in Global Climate Models: A Snow and Radiation Interaction Sensitivity Experiment

Jui-Lin F. Li, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and W. L. Lee, D. E. Waliser, J. D. Neelin, E. J. Fetzer, J. Stachnik, S. Wong, and Q. Yue

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (6.5 MB)

5:30 PM

11B.7

Understanding the Future Changes of Equatorial Pacific Trade Winds in the CMIP5

Baoqiang Xiang, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, New Jersey; and B. Wang, J. Li, M. Zhao, and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

11B.8

Quantifying synoptic scale errors in CMIP5 simulation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone

Matthew J. Niznik, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ; and B. R. Lintner, A. J. Matthews, and M. J. Widlansky

Session 11C

Tropical Cyclone Secondary Eyewalls and Eyewall Replacement

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan Unerversity

4:00 PM

11C.1

Unbalanced Dynamics of Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones - Part I: Momentum Budget

Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11C.2

Unbalanced Dynamics of Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones - Part II: Analyses from Higher-Resolution Simulations

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. P. Kuan, Y. M. Cheng, and Y. H. Huang

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11C.3

Analysis of a simulated tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycle

Jeffrey David Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (860.6 kB)

4:45 PM

11C.4

Balanced and unbalanced aspects of secondary eyewall formation

Sergio F. Abarca, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11C.5

Mechanisms governing the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

Zhenduo zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

11C.6

Investigating the factors responsible for secondary eyewall formation in an ensemble of high-resolution hurricane simulations

Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

11C.7

Primary and Secondary Eyewall Convective Forcing in Hurricane Rita (2005)

Michael M. Bell, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and A. M. Foerster and S. L. McElhinney

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

11C.8

Prediction of Intensity Changes Subsequent to Concentric Eyewall Events

Rachel G. Mauk, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

Recorded Presentation

Session 11D

Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability II

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric Maloney, Colorado State Univ.

4:00 PM

11D.1

MJO Structure Under Suppressed External Forcing

Marcus N. Morgan II, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray

4:15 PM

11D.2

Equatorial intraseasonal variability: is there a causal connection from the extratropics?

Nicholas M. J. Hall, University of Toulouse, Toulouse, France; and S. Thibaut

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11D.3

Interaction of the MJO with intraseasonal extratropical waves of the Western Hemisphere

Paul E. Roundy, University at Albany, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

Handout (6.2 MB) Handout (6.1 MB)

4:45 PM

11D.4

Circumnavigating Kelvin Waves that Initiate and Dissipate the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA; and P. T. Haertel and A. Budsock

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11D.5

A simple model for tropical-extratropical interactions along the Eastern Pacific ITCZ

Juliana Dias, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

11D.6

Anticyclonic Wavebreaking Modulated by the MJO

Kyle MacRitchie, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

11D.7

Finding Energy Pathways from a Tropical Energy Bubble to a Mid-Latitude Jet Using Wave Activity Flux Vectors

Stephen A. Ogden, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli

Recorded Presentation

Handout (802.7 kB)

5:45 PM

11D.8

Examining the Relationship Between Tropical Jet Available Potential Energy (JAPE) and the Level of Extratropical Storm Activity During the Winter Season

Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and M. M. Madsen

Recorded Presentation

31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Banquet

Location: Tiki Pavilion/Grand Plaza Fountain (Town and Country Resort )

Session 12A

Numerical Modeling II

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD

8:00 AM

12A.1

A Quantitative Method for Validating Tropical Cyclone Model Forecasts Using Satellite Microwave Observations

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. Velden

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12A.2

The Spin-up Process of a Cyclone Vortex in a Tropical Cyclone Initialization Scheme and Its Impact on the initial TC Structure

Chih-Ying Chen, National Central University, JhongLi, Taoyuan, Taiwan; and Y. L. Chen and H. V. Nguyen

Manuscript (1.8 MB)

8:30 AM

12A.3

The Impact of Cloud Microphysics on the Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010)

Stefan Cecelski, Weather Analytics, Bethesda, MD; and D. L. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12A.4

The use of gamma distributions to quantify the dependence of cloud particle size distributions in tropical cyclones on cloud and environmental parameters

Greg M. McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. Mascio, T. L. Hsieh, M. Freer, A. Dooley, and B. F. Jewett

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12A.5

Sensitivity of numerical simulations of Typhoon Nuri (2008) to horizontal resolution and microphysical schemes: Implication for the role of adiabatic heating and upper-level processes in rapid intensification

Zhan Li, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

9:15 AM

12A.6

Assessing the sensitivity of Unified Model simulations of Super-typhoon Haiyan using two dynamical cores

Stuart Webster, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; and J. Petch, J. T. Heming, and C. Short

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12A.7

The Role of Topography and Environmental Vertical Wind Shear in Forming the Convective Asymmetric in Typhoon Nanmadol (2011)

Kun-Hsuan Chou, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. M. Yeh and C. H. Chih

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

12A.8

Objective Updraft Tracking in Mesoscale Models – Hurricane Rainband Convective Properties

Wesley D. Terwey, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and C. M. Rozoff

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Climate II

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Xiaofan Li, Zhejiang University

8:00 AM

12B.1

Island Precipitation Enhancement in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium: Impacts on Large-Scale Circulation

Timothy W. Cronin, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12B.2

Observed Changes in Organized Tropical Deep Convection as Identified by Cloud Regime Analysis

Jackson Tan, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and C. Jakob

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (478.1 kB)

Handout (2.8 MB)

8:30 AM

12B.3

Tropical rainfall change in warming climate

Shang-Ping Xie, Univesity of California, La Jolla, CA

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12B.4

The role of coastline-induced precipitation in the tropics

Martin Bergemann, Monash Universtity, Melbourne, Australia; and C. Jakob and T. P. Lane

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12B.5

The effect of cloud-radiative feedback on tropical deep convection and its coupling with large-scale dynamics

Usama M. Anber, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, NY; and S. Wang and A. H. Sobel

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12B.6

Identification of a New Dust Indirect Effect Over the Tropical North Atlantic

Owen M. Doherty, SIO/Univ. Of California, San Diego, CA; and A. Evan

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12B.7

The Response of the Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate to Saharan Dust in a Fully Coupled GCM

Jeffrey D. O. Strong, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi and P. Ginoux

Recorded Presentation

Session 12C

Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing III

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jeffrey Hawkins, NRL

8:00 AM

12C.1

Advances in Airborne Radio Occultation Profiling in the Tropical Environment of Pre-Hurricane Karl

Brian J. Murphy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. S. Haase, K. N. Wang, J. L. Garrison, X. M. Chen, S. H. Chen, and P. Muradyan

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12C.2

Radar-derived Buoyancy in Hurricane Rita (2005)

Annette M. Foerster, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12C.3

Wide Swath Radar Altimeter for real-time reporting of hurricane wave height and Directional Wave Spectra

Ivan PopStefanija, ProSensing Inc., Amherst, MA; and N. Slavich, S. Seeger, C. W. Fairall, and E. Walsh

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12C.4

Analysis of hurricane morphology, internal waves and boundary layer rolls observed from satellite SAR images

Xiaofeng Li, Global Science and Technology, Inc., College Park, MD; and Z. Zhao, B. Liu, J. Zhang, X. yang, W. Pichel, and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12C.5

Further Improvement of SFMR Surface Wind Speeds in Heavy Precipitation

Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML, University of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, R. A. Black, and S. Lorsolo

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12C.6

Eye and Eyewall traits as determined with the NOAA WP-3D Lower Fuselage Radar

Carl E. Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12C.7

Fine-scale dual-Doppler analysis of hurricane boundary layer structures in Hurricane Frances (2004) at landfall

Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

12C.8

Optimized Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from ASCAT, OceanSAT-2, and QuikSCAT

Bryan W. Stiles, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. M. Hristova-Veleva, M. J. Brennan, and R. Danielson

Session 12D

Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability III

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University

8:00 AM

12D.1

A Stochastic Skeleton Model for the MJO

Sulian Thual, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY ; and A. J. Majda and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12D.2

Identifying the MJO Skeleton in Observational Data

Samuel N. Stechmann, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and A. J. Majda

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12D.3

Symmetric and antisymmetric signals in MJO deep convection

Wen-wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. Giannakis and A. J. Majda

8:45 AM

12D.4

Realistic initiation and dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a coarse resolution aquaplanet GCM

Ajaya Mohan Ravindran, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and B. Khouider and A. J. Majda

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12D.5

Vertical Structure and Physical Processes of the MJO: A Global Model Evaluation Project

Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Jiang, N. P. Klingaman, P. K. Xavier, S. J. Woolnough, J. Petch, and B. Guan

9:15 AM

12D.6

Composite Madden-Julian Oscillation Cloud Structures from Satellite Observations and a Multiscale Modeling Framework Simulation

Kuan-Man Xu, LRC, Hampton, VA; and A. Cheng and Y. Hu

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12D.7

The MJO in a Coarse-Resolution GCM with a Stochastic Multicloud Parameterization

Qiang Deng, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and B. Khouider and A. J. Majda

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

12D.8

Modulation of the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves over South America and tropical Atlantic Ocean in Association with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Yanjuan Guo, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Jiang and D. E. Waliser

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Session 13A

Numerical Modeling III

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center

10:30 AM

13A.1

A Climatology of ECMWF Ensemble Hurricane Track Forecast Variability

Travis J. Elless, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13A.2

NCEP Global Ensemble System Forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby, 2012

Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13A.3

Sudden Track Changes of Typhoon Megi (2010) and its Effects on Precipitation over Taiwan - Evaluation of Uncertainty Based on Ensemble Simulations

Ting-Chen Chen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13A.4

Sudden Track Changes of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres: Idealized Numerical Experiments

Jia Liang, NUIST, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and L. Wu

Recorded Presentation

13A.5

Effects of Environmental Wind and Thermodynamic Profiles on the Interaction of Binary Tropical Cyclones

11:30 AM

13A.5A

Coupled HWRF-HYCOM Modeling System for Typhoon Forecasts

Hyun-Sook Kim, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and C. Kieu, V. Tallapragada, S. Trahan, and D. Iredell

11:45 AM

13A.6

Forced and internal variability of tropical cyclone track density in the western North Pacific

Wei Mei, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and S. P. Xie, M. Zhao, and Y. Wang

Handout (8.0 MB)

12:00 PM

13A.7

Effect of Topography on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Chi Kit Tang, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

Climate III

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL; Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy

10:30 AM

13B.1

Transient Aspects of the Hadley Circulation

Gabriela Mora Rojas, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and A. O. Gonzalez, W. H. Schubert, R. K. Taft, and P. E. Ciesielski

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13B.2

Interhemispheric teleconnections from Atlantic Warm Pool heat source in intermediate and simple models

Xuan Ji, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin, S. K. Lee, and C. R. Mechoso

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13B.3

Origin of Seasonal Predictability for Summer Climate over the Northwestern Pacific

Yu Kosaka, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and S. P. Xie, N. C. Lau, and G. Vecchi

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.1 MB)

11:15 AM

13B.4

Climate Variability of Extreme Weather Events Observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)

Sun wong, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. Teixeira

11:30 AM

13B.5

A Climatology of Surface Radiation, Cloud Cover, and Cloud Radiative Effects for the ARM Tropical Western Pacific

Charles N. Long, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. Flaherty and S. A. McFarlane

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

13B.6

Boundary layer shock-like dynamics of the ITCZ

Alex Omar Gonzalez, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

13B.7

The Trade Wind Regime of eastern Australia

Michael J. Murphy Jr., Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and S. T. Siems

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.7 MB)

Session 13C

Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Heather Archambault, NPS; Michael J. Brennan, NHC

10:30 AM

13C.1

Climatology of extra tropical transitioning duration in the North Western Pacific

Emilie Scherer, Risk Management Solutions, London, England; and J. Imbers, T. Loridan, M. Dixon, E. Bellone, and S. Khare

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13C.2

An Evaluation of Advanced Dvorak Technique-Derived Intensity Estimate Errors and Biases During Extratropical Transition Utilizing Synthetic Satellite Imagery

Alex Manion, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, T. L. Olander, and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

13C.3

Mechanisms responsible for structural changes during the extratropical transition of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008): a model study

11:00 AM

13C.3A

Large-scale moisture and thermodynamic properties associated with rapid weakening in the eastern North Pacific

Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

11:15 AM

13C.4

The impact of tropical cyclones on midlatitude Rossby wave packets: a climatological perspective

Julian F. Quinting, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

11:30 AM

13C.5

The Impacts of Recurving Tropical Cyclones on Extended-Range Predictability of Midlatitude Weather Patterns

Patrick Harr, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and H. Archambault

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

13C.6

Quantification of the impact of extratropical transition on the midlatitude flow: From case studies to a composite view

Christian M. Grams, ETH, Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; and H. M. Archambault

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

13C.7

Investigating the downstream impact of tropical cyclones using ensemble sensitivity analysis

J. H. Keller, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany; and S. C. Jones

Recorded Presentation

Session 13D

Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability IV

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Samuel N. Stechmann, University of Wisconsin-Madison

10:30 AM

13D.1

Phase-dependent perturbation kinetic energy of the Madden-Julian oscillation

Matthew C. Bowers, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13D.2

Applications, Sensitivities, and Development of an RMM-like Index for the MJO Skeleton Model

Justin P. Stachnik, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and D. E. Waliser, A. J. Majda, and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13D.3

Clouds and Winds Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation: A New Perspective from MISR and the Use of Fused Datasets to Study MJO Initiation

Michael Garay, NASA / California Institute of Technology Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA; and K. J. Mueller

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13D.4

Convective lifecycles and convective self-amplification via below-threshhold gross moist stability

Larissa E. Back, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and K. Inoue

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13D.5

Weak temperature gradient simulations; sensitivity to the thermodynamic environment

Stipo Sentic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. L. Sessions and Z. Fuchs

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

13D.6

Intraseasonal variability in easterly wave kinetic energy budgets in west Africa and the east Pacific

Eric Maloney, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. J. Alaka Jr. and A. V. Rydbeck

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

13D.7

Inter-model comparison of tropical intraseasonal variability and convectively coupled wave activity in aquaplanet experiments with an idealized warm pool

Stephanie Leroux, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and G. Bellon

Recorded Presentation

Lunch

Session 14A

Numerical Modeling IV

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD

1:30 PM

14A.1

A framework for studying the inner core of tropical cyclones using large eddy simulation

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. P. Stern and R. Rotunno

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14A.2

The Structure and Dynamics of Coherent Vortices in the Eyewall Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclones

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and G. H. Bryan

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14A.3

Effects of resolved turbulence in a large eddy simulation of a hurricane

Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. H. Bryan

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14A.4

The Impacts of Effective Diffusion on the Axisymmetrization Process

Stephen Guimond, NASA / GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. M. Reisner

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14A.5

Evaluating Different Methods for Determining the Vertical Structure of Tropical Cyclones in Mesoscale Models

David R. Ryglicki, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and R. E. Hart

2:45 PM

14A.6

Effects of surface exchange coefficients on the intensity and structure of axisymmetric hurricanes

Tristan J. Shepherd, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh and J. D. Kepert

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (444.6 kB)

3:00 PM

14A.7

Is Von-Karman constant really a universal constant?

Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and J. Furst

Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

Monsoon I

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Philippe Peyrillé, Météo-France; Hanh Nguyen, Bureau of Meteorology

1:30 PM

14B.1

Monsoons and their Response to Climate Change in Idealized GCM Experiments

Anne Laraia, Caltech, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14B.2

Mechanisms of 20th and 21st Century Asian Monsoon Changes in CMIP5 Models and Observations

Xiaoqiong Li, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and M. Ting and C. Li

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (8.0 MB)

2:00 PM

14B.3

Climate Variability and Change in High Asia Mountains: the interplay between the Indian Monsoon and the Westerly disturbances

Leila Carvalho, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and F. Cannon and C. Jones

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14B.4

The Role of African topography in the South Asian Monsoon

Ho-Hsuan Wei, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14B.5

Comparison of “cloudbursts “ in Nepal and Indian Himalayas: from tropical-extratropical interaction perspective

Archana Shrestha, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison,, WI; and G. J. Tripoli and L. Back

Handout (13.7 MB)

2:45 PM

14B.6

Orographic Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

Jinqiang Chen, California Institute of Technology, PASADENA, CA; and S. Bordoni

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.1 MB)

3:00 PM

14B.7

Thermal Controls on the South Asian Monsoon through Boundary Layer Equivalent Potential Temperature

Ding Ma, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang and W. Boos

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

14B.8

Interannual variability in the large scale dynamics of the South Asian summer monsoon

Jennifer M. Walker, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni and T. Schneider

Recorded Presentation

Session 14C

Tropical Cyclone Structure I

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kevin J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology

1:30 PM

14C.1

The spatial contribution of translation speed to tropical cyclone wind structure

Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and Y. Lau

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14C.2

An Improved Method to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Fields from Routine Satellite Reconnaissance

John Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and S. Longmore and R. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14C.3

Climatological depiction of hurricane structure from passive microwave and scatterometer observations: Using the 12-year JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) to create composites and establish reliable statistics

Svetla Hristova-Veleva, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and B. Stiles, T. P. Shen, F. J. Turk, Z. Haddad, S. Gopalakrishnan, T. Vukicevic, Z. Wang, P. P. Li, B. W. Knosp, Q. A. Vu, and B. H. Lambrigtsen

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.1 MB)

Handout (9.3 MB)

2:15 PM

14C.4

Investigation of the atmospheric environments associated with TC size changes

Diana R. Stovern, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (954.8 kB)

2:30 PM

14C.5

Do Gulf of Mexico Hurricanes Tend to be Larger Than Those Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin?

Andrew Hagen, ImpactWeather, Inc. (A StormGeo Company), Houston, TX

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14C.6

Beyond the wind radius: a complete, observationally-constrained tropical cyclone radial wind profile

Daniel R. Chavas, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and K. Emanuel and N. Lin

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (153.9 kB)

3:00 PM

14C.7

The analysis of 15m/s wind radius of Typhoon in NMSC/KMA

Ok Hee Kim, Korea Meteorelogical Administration, Jincheon-gun, Chungcheongbuk-d, Korea, Republic of (South)

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

14C.8

Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Michael E. Kozar, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and V. Misra

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (394.1 kB)

Session 14D

HFIP I

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NHC

1:30 PM

14D.1

Significant Advances to the NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System for Improved Hurricane Forecasts

Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Trahan, Y. C. Kwon, Z. Zhang, C. Kieu, S. Liu, W. Wang, M. Tong, D. Sheinin, E. Liu, B. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, L. R. Bernardet, R. M. Yablonsky, J. W. Bao, R. J. Pasch, J. L. Franklin, D. A. Zelinsky, B. Strahl, W. Lapenta, R. L. Gall, and F. Toepfer

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14D.2

Improved Telescopic Nesting and Accurate Storm Tracking in the NCEP Operational HWRF Model

Samuel Trahan, NCEP EMC (IMSG), College Park, MD; and Z. Zhang, Y. C. Kwon, H. Y. Chuang, V. Tallapragada, T. Marchok, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, and G. Thompson

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14D.3

Representing Multi-Scale Interactions in HWRF Modeling System

Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. Quirino, S. Liu, R. St. Fleur, Z. Zhang, and S. Gopalakrishnan

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14D.4

Assimilation of Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations with HWRF Hybrid Data Assimilation System

Mingjing Tong, IMSG, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, E. Liu, B. Zhang, W. Wang, C. Kieu, and S. Liu

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14D.5

Retrospective and real-time tests of GSI-based EnKF-Var hybrid data assimilation system for HWRF using high resolution ensemble

Xuguang Wang, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, Norman, OK; and X. Lu

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14D.6

Impact of Assimilating Airborne Reconnaissance Observations on Hurricane Intensity Prediction with the PSU Cycling WRF-EnKF system and its Real-time Forecast Performance during 2013 in support of NOAA HFIP and NASA HS3

Yonghui Weng, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

14D.7

Recent Developments to the COAMPS-TC Dynamic Initialization Schemes

Eric A. Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Peng, R. M. Hodur, J. D. Doyle, Y. Jin, and J. R. Moskaitis

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

14D.8

MPIPOM-TC: A new ocean modeling system with flexible initialization for improved coupled hurricane-ocean model forecasts

Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and B. Thomas

Recorded Presentation

Handout (23.5 MB)

3:30 PM

14D.9

Rapid Intensification in Tropical Cyclones: Understanding Physical Processes and Forecast Uncertainly Using High-resolution Stochastic Ensembles

Falko Judt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.7 MB)

Coffee Break

Poster Session P2

Poster Session II

Location: Golden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

106

Impact of the tropopause temperature on the intensity of tropical cyclones

Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, and L. M. Polvani

107

The Role of Boundary Layer Dynamics on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Yuan-Ming Cheng, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

108

A Novel Approach to Modeling Tropical Cyclone Structure Change

Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Fiorino

Handout (3.0 MB)

109

Effects of Ice Microphysics on Hurricane Intensity

Casey Peirano, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Straka, C. P. Riedel, and O. Kintigh

110

Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. M. Rozoff, C. R. Sampson, J. P. Kossin, C. S. Velden, and M. DeMaria

Handout (3.7 MB)

Poster 111 will now be presented as 5C.1A

111A

Understanding the sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone limiting intensity to sea surface temperature: Observations versus climate simulations

Sarah E. Strazzo, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Elsner

112

Adopting Model Uncertainties for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and T. Vukicevic and B. Tang

113

Extreme Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Vicente (2012) in the South China Sea

Owen H. Shieh, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. Fiorino, M. E. Kucas, and B. Wang

114

Doppler radar observation of Typhoon Vicente (1208) during its Rapid Intensification near landfall

Dan Wu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and X. Chen and K. Zhao

115

Shorter Time Scale Definitions for the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

Greg M. McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. J. Silver

116

A triggering mechanism of the axisymmetric spontaneous intensification of tropical cyclones

Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and T. Takemi

117

Effects of Observed Conditions on Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity

Jenni L. Evans, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. Kowaleski

Handout (1.5 MB)

118

Investigation of Ocean's Barrier Layer and Warm Ocean Feature on Tropical Cyclone's Intensity Change

Poster 119 will now be presented as 15A.8A

120

Numerical experiments for tropical cyclone intensity to the ocean around the warm strong currents

Mayumi K. Yoshioka, Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan; and H. Aiki and K. Tsuboki

Poster 121 will now be presented as 13C.3A

122

Tropical Cyclone - Ocean Interaction in Typhoon Fanapi (2010) - A Synergy Study Based on ITOP Observations, EnKF Data Assimilation, and Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Models

Shao-Liang Sung, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, I. I. Lin, S. S. Chen, and C. Y. Lee

123

Tropical Upper-Ocean Thermal Structure Variability during the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ellen K. Deckinga, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and W. J. Schulz Jr., E. R. Sanabia, and B. S. Barrett

124

What is the sea-surface temperature threshold for tropical cyclone formation?

Kevin J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and R. A. Dare

Handout (335.0 kB)

125

Computing Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Analyses for Tropical Cyclone Applications: The Methodology Matters!

Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Sears

126

Hurricane Eyewall Evolution in a Forced Shallow Water Model

Eric A. Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. H. Schubert, Y. H. Chen, H. C. Kuo, and M. Peng

127

Boundary layer dynamical structure during secondary eyewall formation

Sergio F. Abarca, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery and J. C. McWilliams

128

Tertiary eyewalls: observations and boundary layer response

Sergio F. Abarca, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and Y. T. Yang, H. C. Kuo, B. D. McNoldy, and M. T. Montgomery

129

The Role of Convective Heating in the Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Ring Evolution - Sawyer-Eliassen Model Diagnosis

Shun-Nan Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

130

Highly idealized three-dimensional nonlinear simulations and some aspects of the problem of the secondary eyewall formation

Konstantinos Menelaou, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and P. M. K. Yau

131

What convective properties are most critical for tropical cyclogenesis? Evidence from a multi-satellite investigation of developing and nondeveloping disturbances

Jonathan Zawislak, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser

132

Electric Hurricanes: Review of Recent Advances Supporting Electromagnetic Cyclogenesis

Arnold Benn, IEEE, Newport Beach, CA

133

The Role of Moisture and the Saharan Air Layer in the Tropical Wave to Cyclone Transition of Hurricane Ernesto (2006)

Andrew Stieneke, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. Aiyyer

134

Midlatitude Influence on the Genesis of an Early Season Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone

Andrew S. Levine, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL

135

Evaluation of tropical cyclogenesis in operational global models and their ensembles

136

Characteristics of Convective Processes and Vertical Vorticity from the Tropical Wave to the Tropical Cyclone Stage in a High-Resolution Numerical Model Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Fay (2008)

Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL

137

Characteristics of Tropical Easterly Wave Pouches during Tropical Cyclone Formation

Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and I. E. Hankes, S. M. Hristova-Veleva, T. J. Dunkerton, and S. W. Nesbitt

138

Comparison of developing and non-developing African Easterly Waves in high resolution numerical simulations

Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany,, NY; and C. Thorncroft

139

Sensitivity of simulated Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves to physics schemes and resolution with an idealized tropical channel

Joaquin Esteban Blanco, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Nolan and S. N. Tulich

Manuscript (759.2 kB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

140

North Atlantic Hurricanes Contributed by African Easterly Waves North and South of the African Easterly Jet

Joshua J. Alland, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. C. Chen

Handout (7.2 MB)

141

Climatological probabilities of tropical cyclogenesis based on Joint Typhoon Warning Center Dvorak analyses

Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. E. Kucas and C. Velden

142

Interaction of African Easterly Waves and Moist Convection

143

Development of a Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI) for the North Atlantic

Jason Dunion, University of Miami/CIMAS-NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Kaplan, A. B. Schumacher, J. Cossuth, and M. DeMaria

Poster 144 will now be presented as 2B.6A

145

Tropical Cyclone Trains

Cristina A. Carrasco, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

146

Verification of TC genesis forecasts from global models: Updates and real-time applications

Daniel J. Halperin, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and H. E. Fuelberg, R. E. Hart, and J. Cossuth

147

An analysis of tropical storm formation using ensemble data assimilation and high-resolution numerical simulations

Andrew B. Penny, Systems Research Group / National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Hacker, P. A. Harr, and R. Creasey

148

Impacts of the Upper-tropospheric Processes on Tropical Cyclone Formation

Cody L. Fritz, University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang and S. A. Braun

149

The Contribution of Environmental Mid-Level Cyclonic Vorticity to the Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012)

150

Multi-Scale Predictability Aspects of Superstorm Sandy

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, P. A. Reinecke, C. M. Amerault, and R. H. Langland

151

A Computational Study of Binary Mesoscale Vortex Interactions on the Tropical Oceanic F-Plane: The Consequences on Hurricane Formation

David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO

152

Objective, Automatic Tracking of Pre-Genesis Tropical Disturbances within the Deviation Angle Variance Method

Oscar G. Rodriguez-Herrera, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and K. M. Wood, K. Dolling, W. Black, E. A. Ritchie, and J. S. Tyo

Manuscript (2.4 MB)

153

Using Ensemble Analysis to Investigate the Genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010)

Ashford D'Arcy Reyes, Howard University, Washington, DC

154

The Effects of SST Gradients on Tropical Convective Systems and Implications for Tropical Cyclogenesis

Russell Henderson Glazer, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart and M. A. Bourassa

155

Landfall intensity of tropical cyclones and ENSO

Doo-Sun R. Park, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. S. Kim

156

Relationship between Typhoon Activities and ENSO Evolution in 2009/2010

Jiyoung Kim, Korea Meteorological Administration, Dongjak-gu, Korea, Republic of (South); and M. S. Lim and D. S. Shin

Handout (478.7 kB)

157

Interannual Variability of the Atlantic Hadley Circulation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Activity

Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, M. Peng, J. H. Chen, and S. J. Lin

158

A Dynamic Relationship between Typhoon Activity, the North Pacific High and the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation in Boreal Summer

Hidetaka Hirata, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; and R. Kawamura

159

Interaction of Tropical Convective Systems and Madden Julian Oscillation in Formation of Tropical Cyclone Mekkhala (2008)

Hyeong-Seog Kim, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and M. S. Park

Poster 160 will now be presented as 1A.6A

161

Outlook for Seasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Events in Atlantic and Western North Pacific

Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University Taiwan, New Taipei City,, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry and M. S. Jordan

162

RPI2.0 2013 Seasonal Landfall Competition Results

Mark P. Guishard, Risk Prediction Initiative, BIOS, St. George's, Bermuda; and C. King, F. Niehoerster, and R. Murnane

163

On the role of vertical wind shear in AGCM-simulated tropical cyclones: Intensity change, Vertical structure and Precipitation distribution

Fei He, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. J. Posselt

Poster 164 wiill now be presented as 7C.5A

164A

Intense Tropical Cyclone Occurrences in Mindanao (Philippines)

Nikos Viktor B. Penaranda, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

165

How is the impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone development affected by varying initial conditions in AGCMs?

Fei He, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. J. Posselt

166

Intercomparison of global tropical cyclone activity using four cumulus parameterizations in tropical channel climate simulations

Atsushi Hashimoto, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Chiba, Japan; and J. M. Done and H. Hirakuchi

167

Evaluating the Inverse Relationship Between Aggregate Tropical Cyclone Activity and Subsequent Winter Climate within Uncoupled ECHAM Simulations

Henry Winterbottom, EMC, Boulder, CO; and P. Pegion and R. Hart

168

A Diagnosis of the Poorly Forecast Interaction between Recurving Tropical Cyclone Malakas (2010) and the Extratropical Flow

Heather M. Archambault, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr and R. W. Moore

169

Recurving Tropical Cyclones as Precursors to Blocking

Heather M. Archambault, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr

170

Investigating the impact of Typhoon Choi-Wan (2009) on the mid-latitude flow using eddy kinetic energy analysis

Julia H. Keller, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany; and C. M. Grams

171

The influence of ET on poleward Rossby Wave Breaking

Lisa-Ann Quandt, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; and J. H. Keller, A. Schneidereit, S. C. Jones, and D. Peters

172

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall to Idealized Global Scale Forcings

Gabriele Villarini, IIHR HYDROSCIENCE & ENGINEERING, IOWA CITY, IA; and D. A. Lavers, E. Scoccimarro, M. Zhao, M. F. Wehner, G. A. Vecchi, and T. R. Knutson

173

Evaluation of ACCESS-TC Precipitation Forecasts using CRA

Yingjun Chen, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and E. Ebert, N. E. Davidson, and K. J. E. Walsh

174

Environmnetal Discourses in Borana Oromo: A Focus on Narratives

Teshome Tafesse, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, n/a, Ethiopia

175

Analysis of Miniature Supercells Observed in the Outer Rainbands of Hurricane Gustav (2008)

Adam Joseph Picard, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC

176

A tropical cyclone tornado parameter for use in situational awareness forecasting

Matthew Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and B. M. Hays and M. C. Link

177

Sounding-based prediction of supercell motions in tropical cyclones

Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and C. Self

178

Spiral Rainbands in Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones in Uniform and Vertically Sheared Flows

Yumin Moon, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. H. Bryan

179

Statistical Characteristics of Typhoon-Induced Rainfall in Taiwan

Tzu-Hsiung Yen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and Y. F. Lin

180

Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon Quantitatively Precipitation in Taiwan

Lung-Yao Chang, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, NARL, Taipei, Taiwan; and D. Y. C. Chen, L. F. Hsiao, C. C. Tsai, L. Feng, C. S. Lee, H. C. Kuo, and M. J. Yang

181

Kinematic Structure and Maintenance of the Long-lasting Rainband in the Outer Region of Typhoon Fengshen (2008)

Buo-Fu Chen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee

182

Formation of Tropical Cyclone Spiral Rainbands in a 3-D Cloud-Resolving Model

Diamilet Perez-Betancourt, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

183

Preliminary Investigation of Selected Radar Patterns Associated with Local Maximum Wind Gusts in Rainbands of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Keith G. Blackwell, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL

Handout (2.2 MB)

184

Radar and Thermodynamic Properties of Isolated Convective Cells in the Rainband Region

Wesley D. Terwey, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and C. Baird, K. Crooks, and C. M. Rozoff

185

The Impact of Typhoon Danas on the Typhoon Fitow Flood Event in East China

Anna M. Trevino, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis and A. Chen

186

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and U.S. Flooding

Gabriele Villarini, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and R. Goska, J. A. Smith, and G. Vecchi

187

Spatial and Temporal Distributions of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Using Data from the Global Forecast System and Stage IV Precipitation

Ryan Walsh, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg and R. E. Hart

188

Objectbased verification of tropical precipitation forecasts during the YOTC period

Marlon Maranan, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and J. F. Quinting, J. H. Keller, and S. C. Jones

189

Tropical Convection Observed During the Hawaiian Educational Radar Opportunity (HERO)

Michael M. Bell, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and R. Ballard, A. M. Foerster, A. Frambach, K. A. Kosiba, W. C. Lee, S. L. McElhinney, and J. M. Wurman

190

Leading modes of synoptic scale convective activity over the central Pacific

Juliana Dias, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis

191

Mechanisms for convection initiation over North-East Australia

Cathryn E. Birch, UK Met Office, Leeds, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom; and M. J. Reeder and M. J. Roberts

192

The Waves to Weather challenge: Do large-scale equatorial waves significantly modulate regional rainfall in southern Vietnam?

Roderick van der Linden, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany; and A. H. Fink and T. van Phan

193

Response of Atmospheric Convection to Vertical Wind Shear: Cloud-Radiation Interaction

Usama M. Anber, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, NY; and S. Wang and A. H. Sobel

194

Dynamical Environments of Organised Deep Convection in Climate Models

Jackson Tan, NASA, Wallops Island, VA; and C. Jakob

Manuscript (714.6 kB)

Handout (2.6 MB)

195

Threshold Models for Rainfall and Convection: Deterministic versus Stochastic Triggers

Scott Hottovy, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Stechmann

Handout (2.3 MB)

196

Verification and Optimization method for the Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX)

Delia Yen-Chu Chen, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and M. C. Wu, C. C. Chiang, L. R. Huang, L. Y. Chang, L. F. Hsiao, L. Feng, and C. S. Lee

Poster 197 wiill now be presented as 6B.7A

198

Explaining low convective echo top heights during a strong DYNAMO westerly wind burst

Elizabeth J. Thompson, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. M. Peters, R. S. Schumacher, and S. Rutledge

199

Climate Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Simulated by GFDL CM2.5

Hyeong-Seog Kim, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and G. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, T. L. Delworth, and M. Zhao

200

Variability in mixed layer top and transition layer top elevations during CINDY2011/DYNAMO/AMIE

Jennifer L. Davison, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY

201

A three-layer model of ocean sea surface skin temperature, warm layer and mixed layer (SWaM) for improved representation of the upper ocean warm layer in modeling and data assimilation

Dariusz B. Baranowski, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and P. J. Flatau, M. Flatau, A. J. Matthews, and S. Chen

202

Sensitivity to planetary boundary layer parameterizations in realistic hurricane simulations

Julio C. Marin, Universidad de Valparaiso, Valparaiso, Chile; and S. F. Abarca, L. M. Farfan, and G. B. Raga

203

Super Typhoon Haiyan in Tacloban City, Philippines

Josh Morgerman, iCyclone.com, West Hollywood, CA

Session 15A

Numerical Modeling V

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML

8:00 AM

15A.1

Moist Convective Instability, Rainfall Rate, and Gross Moist Stability

David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and S. Gjorgjievska and S. L. Sessions

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

15A.2

A multicloud model for meso-scale convective systems

Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and M. W. Moncrieff

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.7 MB)

8:30 AM

15A.3

Understanding Precipitating-Cloud Structures: A New Convective-Stratiform Rainfall Separation Scheme

Xiaofan Li, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

8:45 AM

15A.4

Deterministic Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones Using a Variable-Resolution Global Model

Colin M. Zarzycki, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

15A.5

Model Sensitivity to Perturbations of Environment, Structure, and Model Parameters in Idealized, Ocean-Coupled Tropical Cyclone Simulations

Altug Aksoy, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and B. W. Klotz, J. Zhang, E. Uhlhorn, and J. J. Cione

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

15A.6

How the different analyses forcing fields affect the tropical cyclone simulation?

Shih-How Lo, National Taiwan Normal University, TAIPEI, Taiwan; and C. T. Chen and C. C. Wang

9:30 AM

15A.7

Time-Lagged High-Resolution Typhoon Ensemble Forecasts for Taiwan by the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS)

Chung-Chieh Wang, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan

Recorded Presentation

15A.8

The dynamic feature of Mixed Rossby-Gravity Waves on Barotropic Vortices with Eigen-frequency Analysis

9:45 AM

15A.8A

Idealized Study of Land Surface Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Predictions Using the HWRF Modeling System

Subashini Subramanian, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and S. Gopalakrishnan, G. R. Halliwell Jr., and D. Niyogi

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B

Monsoon II

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Larissa E. Back, Univ. of Wisconsin

8:00 AM

15B.1

Response of aquaplanet monsoons to changes in longwave radiation

Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and T. M. Merlis

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

15B.2

Cloud-Radiation Interaction in the West African Monsoon: An Idealized Study

Philippe Peyrillé, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and D. Bouniol and F. Guichard

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

15B.3

Evaluation of cloud properties over the Maritime Continent in ACCESS using CloudSat and CALIPSO simulators

Hanh Nguyen, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and C. N. Franklin and A. Protat

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

15B.4

Extended-Range (~1-35 day) Forecasts of Convective Variability for the North Australian Monsoon region

Matthew C. Wheeler, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and W. Drosdowsky and H. Nguyen

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

15B.5

Extended range forecast of intraseasonal variability of western north Pacific monsoon and typhoons in 2004 using a global nonhydrostatic model

Masuo Nakano, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Sawada, T. Nasuno, and M. Satoh

9:15 AM

15B.6

Intensive observation PALAU2013 and data rescue study for Philippine summer monsoon onset

Hisayuki Kubota, Research Institute for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and R. Shirooka, J. Matsumoto, E. O. Cayanan, and F. D. Hilario

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

15B.7

Case Studies from the 2013 North American Monsoon Transect Experiment

James M. Moker Jr., University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and Y. Serra, C. Castro, and A. Avelino

Recorded Presentation

Session 15C

Tropical Cyclone Structure II

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Daniel P. Stern, UCAR

8:00 AM

15C.1

Tropical cyclone outflow layer structure and dynamics using G-IV dropsondes

John Molinari, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

15C.2

Observations of Low Richardson Number in the Tropical Cyclone Outflow Layer

Patrick T. Duran, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (692.4 kB)

8:30 AM

15C.3

Outflow layer influences on tropical cyclone structure and intensity

Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY

8:45 AM

15C.4

The Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle

Jason Dunion, University of Miami/CIMAS-NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. D. Thorncroft and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

15C.5

Diurnal Variability of an Axisymmetric Hurricane in Statistical Equilibrium

Erika L. Navarro, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

15C.6

HEDAS Analyses of a Rapidly Evolving Eyewall of a Major Hurricane – Fabian (2003)

Sim Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. D. Ditchek, A. Aksoy, and K. J. Sellwood

Recorded Presentation

15C.7

Observations by the NOAA WP-3D of a persistent mesoscale convectively generated vortex well displaced from the center of Tropical Storm Karen (2013)

9:45 AM

15C.8

Fronts and gravity waves in a hurricane: Hurricane Ida (2009)

Sytske Kimball, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL

Recorded Presentation

Session 15D

HFIP II

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: David A. Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center, NCEP/NWS, Miami, FL

8:00 AM

15D.1

Further Development of a Statistical-Dynamical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

15D.2

The University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Model (UW-NMS) in 2013: Development, Performance and Future Plans

William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

15D.3

Results From The 2013 HFIP Realtime Demo GFS Ensemble

Philip Pegion, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and T. Hamill

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

15D.4

Multiple Model Ensemble Forecasts for Tropical Cyclone Track and Genesis

Jiayi Peng, EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and R. Wobus

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

15D.5

Verification of tropical cyclone genesis prediction in a suite of operational global numerical weather prediction models

Mike Fiorino, CIRES, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.2 MB)

9:15 AM

15D.6

Evaluation of GFDL hurricane ensemble wind speed probability guidance

Matthew J. Morin, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok and M. Bender

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

15D.7

Forecast verification methods for tropical cyclone forecasts

Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Ebert, E. Gilleland, and L. J. Wilson

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

15D.8

Experimental Model Evaluations for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, B. G. Brown, T. Fowler, P. A. Kucera, K. M. Newman, J. L. Vigh, and C. Williams

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Session 16A

Tropical Cyclone Landfall and Operational Issues I

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NHC

10:30 AM

16A.1

Predicting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Error

Kieran Bhatia, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (226.4 kB)

10:45 AM

16A.2

On the limits of measuring the maximum wind speeds in hurricanes

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang and E. W. Uhlhorn

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

16A.3

Operational Implications for NEXRAD WSR-88D Wind Speed Reduction Factors

Richard J. Krupar III, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (430.1 kB)

11:15 AM

16A.4

A Study of the Constraints of the Dvorak Technique

John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and J. Cangialosi and T. B. Kimberlain

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

16A.5

Current Methods of Tropical Cyclone Analysis using Microwave Imagery and Data

Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam

Recorded Presentation

Handout (8.4 MB)

11:45 AM

16A.6

Recent forecast operations and outreach activities at the Canadian Hurricane Center

Chris Fogarty, EC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.1 MB)

12:00 PM

16A.7

An Introduction of Typhoon Forecast Operation at CTFC

Lin Dong, National Meteorological Center, Beijing, China; and C. Qian

Session 16B

U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes and Climate I

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kevin Walsh, University of Melbourne

10:30 AM

16B.1

Overview of the characteristics of tropical cyclones in the US CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Models

Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and D. Shaevitz, Y. Lu, A. S. Daloz, J. G. Dwyer, K. Emanuel, J. P. Kossin, A. H. Sobel, G. A. Vecchi, K. Walsh, M. Zhao, J. Jonas, D. Kim, T. LaRow, Y. K. Lim, C. M. Patricola, M. J. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, P. L. Vidale, H. Wang, and M. F. Wehner

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

16B.2

Robust direct effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on global tropical cyclone frequency - A multi-model inter-comparison

Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and I. Held, G. A. Vecchi, E. Scoccimarro, H. Wang, M. F. Wehner, Y. K. Lim, T. E. LaRow, S. J. Camargo, K. J. E. Walsh, S. gualdi, A. Kumar, S. Schubert, and K. A. Reed

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

16B.3

Cluster analysis of explicitly and downscaled simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks

Anne Sophie Daloz, UW-Madison Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, and K. A. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

16B.4

Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-Based Scenarios

11:15 AM

17B.7

The tracking scheme dependence of simulated future tropical cyclone activity trends

Michael Horn, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and K. Walsh, M. Zhao, S. A. Camargo, J. A. Jonas, D. Shaevitz, E. Scoccimarro, H. Wang, H. Murakami, K. Oouchi, and A. Kumar

11:30 AM

16B.5

Projected changes in the length of the tropical cyclone season

John G. Dwyer, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, M. Biasutti, K. A. Emanuel, G. A. Vecchi, and M. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

16B.6

Fine resolution simulation of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones in the South Pacific

Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and S. T. Garner, T. R. Knutson, C. Kerr, J. J. Sirutis, and J. Katzfey

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

16B.7

Intense precipitation events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones in a warmer climate

Enrico Scoccimarro, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia/Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; and S. gualdi, G. Villarini, M. Zhao, G. A. Vecchi, K. Walsh, and A. Navarra

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

The dependence of simulated future tropical cyclone activity on tracking methods: Presented by Michael Horn

Recorded Presentation

Session 16C

Tropical Cyclone Structure III

Location: Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Brian Strahl, Joint Typhoon Warning Center

10:30 AM

16C.1

Dropsonde composites of asymmetric hurricane boundary layer structure in relation to environmental vertical wind shear

Jun Zhang, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and R. Rogers, P. Reasor, E. Uhlhorn, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

16C.2

An Observational Study of Hurricane Georges (1998) as a Mature Tropical Cyclone

Neil Thomas Sanger, Air Force Weather, Barksdale Air Force Base, LA; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

16C.3

Observations of Supergradient Winds in the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer

Shannon L. McElhinney, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (474.2 kB)

11:15 AM

16C.4

Tropical cyclone boundary layer shocks and shock-like structures

Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (841.9 kB)

Handout (1.9 MB)

11:30 AM

16C.5

Simulation of the turbulent transport associated with large eddy circulations in the hurricane boundary layer for Irene (2011)

Bryce Paul Tyner, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and A. Aiyyer

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

16C.6

Interactions between Roll Vortices and Large-scale Flow in the Hurricane Boundary Layer

Kun Gao, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

12:00 PM

16C.7

Structure and Maintenance of Concentric Eyewalls in Simulated Typhoon Bolaven (2012)

Satoki Tsujino, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and K. Tsuboki

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

Session 16D

HFIP III

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.

16D.1

Tropical Cyclone Predictions over Indian Seas: Super Storm Phailin and beyond

10:45 AM

16D.2

Analysis of Hurricane Rita (2005) Track Forecasts using Ensemble Reforecast Data

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

16D.3

Diagnosis of GFS Height, Wind and TC Motion Errors during 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ying-Hwa Kuo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, T. J. Galarneau Jr., and X. Fang

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

16D.4

Evaluating HWRF Modeling of Landfallling Tropical Cyclones over Florida

Dany Tran, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and S. Chiao

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.5 MB)

11:30 AM

16D.5

Influence of cloud-radiative forcing on tropical cyclone structure

Yizhe Peggy Bu, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Fovell and K. L. Corbosiero

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

16D.6

Use of Synthetic Profiles to Diagnose Simulated Tropical Cyclones in Regional Hurricane Models

Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Kieu, V. Tallapragada, L. R. Bernardet, and E. W. Uhlhorn

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (727.7 kB)

Handout (7.0 MB)

12:00 PM

16D.7

Hurricane WRF model sensitivity to microphysics and radiation parameterizations

Mrinal K. Biswas, DTC/NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, T. Brown, G. Thompson, A. Chakraborty, S. Trahan, Y. Kwon, V. Tallapragada, J. H. Gotway, M. Harrold, and T. Jensen

Recorded Presentation

Lunch

Session 17A

Tropical Cyclone Landfall and Operational Issues II

Location: Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kieran Bhatia, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

1:30 PM

17A.1

Subtropical cyclones: Operational practices and analysis methods applied at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Matthew E. Kucas, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI; and S. J. Barlow and R. C. Ballucanag

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (242.7 kB)

1:45 PM

17A.2

Intensity Guidance and Center Tracking for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones by VORTRAC

Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR/EOL, Boulder, CO; and M. M. Bell, A. M. Foerster, X. Tang, and P. R. Harasti

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

17A.3

Numerical Optimization and Validation of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System across the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Driven by the Official Tropcial Analysis and Forecast Branch/National Hurricane Center Gridded Wind Forecasts

Alex Gibbs, NOAA, Miami, FL; and P. Santos, A. J. van der Westhuysen, R. Padilla, H. D. Cobb III, J. R. Lewitsky, and C. Mattocks

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

2:15 PM

17A.4

Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity at Landfall

Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

17A.5

Interactions between the atmospheric boundary layer and Hurricane Katrina (2005) during its landfall

Hailing Zhang, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

2:45 PM

17A.6

Role of Land Surface Processes on land falling Tropical Cyclones and Monsoon Depressions over the Indian Region

Krishna K. Osuri, Indian Institute of Bhubaneswar, Satya Nagar, Orisha, India; and U. C. Mohanty, S. Pattanayak, S. Gopalakrishnan, and D. Niyogi

3:00 PM

17A.7

A Method for the Verification of Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Forecasts

Derek Ortt, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (301.0 kB)

3:15 PM

17A.8

Radar observation of precipitation asymmetries in tropical cyclones making landfall on the east China coast

Kun Zhao, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and D. Wu, B. J. D. Jou, and W. C. Lee

Session 17B

U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes and Climate II

Location: Pacific Salon 4 & 5 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kevin J.E. Walsh, University of Melbourne

17B.1

Impact of SST Forcing on Atmospheric Temperature Trends and Tropical Cyclone Activity

1:30 PM

17B.8

Mitigation of hurricane potential intensity by the Montreal Protocol

Lorenzo M. Polvani, Columbia University, New York, NY; and S. J. Camargo and R. Garcia

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

17B.2

Resolution dependence of future tropical cyclone projections of CAM5.1 in the US CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group idealized configurations

Michael F. Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; and M. Prabhat, K. A. Reed, D. Stone, W. D. Collins, and J. Bacmeister

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

17B.3

North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity in CMIP5 Models: Anthropogenic Forcing versus Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Mingfang Ting, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory/Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and S. J. Camargo and Y. Kushnir

2:15 PM

17B.4

Environmental control of tropical cyclones in CMIP5: A ventilation perspective

Brian Tang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. J. Camargo

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

17B.5

Model Resolution Dependency of the Maximum Intensity of Tropical cyclones and its development speed

Yohei Yamada, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Satoh

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

17B.6

The Impact of Canonical and Non-canonical El Niño on Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity: High-resolution Tropical Channel Model Simulations

Christina M. Patricola, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and P. Chang and R. Saravanan

Paper 17B.7 will be presented in Session 16B at 11:15

Session 17D

HFIP IV

Location: Regency Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

1:30 PM

17D.1

The Research HWRF system: Looking beyond the 10-m Wind Speed for Improved Storm Predictions

Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (gopal), NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, T. Quirino, V. Tallapragada, F. Marks, and R. Atlas

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

17D.2

Dynamics and Predictability of Secondary Eyewall Formation of Tropical Cyclones Under Vertical Wind Shear

Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and Y. Sun

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

17D.3

Evaluation of shear-relative hurricane structure from the HWRF model

Paul Reasor, NOAA, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang and S. Gopalakrishnan

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

17D.4

On the Development of Double Warm Cores in Intense Tropical Cyclones in the HWRF Model

Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.3 MB)

2:30 PM

17D.5

A Study on the Asymmetric Rapid intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) Using the HWRF system

Hua Chen, NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and S. Gopalakrishnan

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

17D.6

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification: Multivariate Attributes and Rapid Intensity Change

Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, P. A. Kucera, L. B. Nance, and K. M. Newman

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

17D.7

Application of Wind-Pressure Relationships to Global Model Output for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting

David A. Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center, NCEP/NWS, Miami, FL, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

Session 17C

Tropical Cyclone Structure IV

Location: Pacific Salon 6 & 7 (Town and Country Resort )

Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John Molinari, SUNY

1:45 PM

17C.1

Isentropic analysis of hurricane circulation

Agnieszka A. Mrowiec, NASA GISS / Columbia University, New York, NY; and O. Pauluis and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

17C.3

Relationships Between Tropical Cyclone Structure and Convective Cloud Dynamics

Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. D. Terwey

Recorded Presentation

17C.2

Tropical Cyclone Structure Prediction Using a Regional Model

2:15 PM

17C.4

Assessing the relationship between the large-scale and inner-core estimates of vertical shear

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. Reasor and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

Handout (409.3 kB)

2:30 PM

17C.5

The constrained heat engine of a tropical cyclone in vertical wind shear: Lagrangian analysis

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany; and F. Laliberte

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

17C.6

Reexamination of Eyewall Instabilities in Simulated Hurricanes

Jason Naylor, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Schecter

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

17C.7

Analysis of Shear-Relative Asymmetries in Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Slope Using Airborne Doppler Radar Data

Andrew Todd Hazelton, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. F. Rogers and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

3:15 PM

17C.8

Quadrant distribution of tropical cyclone inner-core kinematics in relation to environmental shear

Jennifer C. DeHart, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr. and R. F. Rogers

Recorded Presentation

Meeting Adjourns

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