Development of a Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI) for the North Atlantic

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is perhaps one of the more difficult stages of the tropical cyclone lifecycle to diagnose and predict. Tropical disturbances are vastly under sampled phenomenon in the North Atlantic and account for <10% of all NOAA aircraft missions that have been conducted since the middle 1970s. Unfortunately, there are also limited resources available to forecasters to objectively identify and predict TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin. A new scheme for forecasting TC genesis has been developed under NOAA's Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) program to help address these deficiencies. The main goal of this project was to develop a storm-centric TC Genesis Index (TCGI) to provide forecasters with an objective tool for identifying the probability of TC genesis (0-48 hr and 0-120 hr) in the North Atlantic basin. Discussion will highlight the TCGI scheme, its skill at predicting TC genesis, and results from real-time testing during the 2013 hurricane season.