Forecast verification methods for tropical cyclone forecasts

Verification methods for tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts have traditionally focused on evaluation of TC track and intensity predictions, as a measure of the level of forecasting success. While this approach to evaluating tropical cyclone predictions appears to be rather straightforward, many nuances are associated with determining the “goodness” of TC predictions (e.g., related to the observations and analyses used for the evaluation). Moreover, in recent years, the focus of TC evaluation has expanded to consideration of other aspects of the forecasts, including impact-related variables such as precipitation and storm surge, and new types of forecasts, including ensemble predictions. Recently, the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) of the WMO's World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and Working group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) published a document that summarizes verification approaches for TC predictions and makes recommendations on approaches that should be applied for different purposes. This document (available at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/Forecast_Verification.html) considers the range of types of verification methods that are applied around the world in the evaluation of TC predictions. This presentation will provide an overview of the document, with a focus on new aspects of the verification methods applied internationally, and attention to novel approaches that are applied for particular types of forecasts. Consideration of the direction that TC forecast evaluation should evolve in the future will also be considered.