Multiple Model Ensemble Forecasts for Tropical Cyclone Track and Genesis

NOAA established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) to develop a 10-year strategy to improve hurricane forecasts. The goal will be achieved through the multi-model ensemble based numerical prediction system. This study will focus on tropical cyclone (TC) track and genesis ensemble forecasts.

For TC track forecast, we use five global ensemble forecast systems, which are being run in National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), Canadian Meteorology Center (CMC), European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and UK Met Office. The global TC track and probabilistic forecasts are produced by the combination of the TC-ensemble forecasts in these five centers. The results show remarkable improvements for hurricane /typhoon track prediction through this multiple global-model ensemble forecast system. This system was run in real time in last three years for providing the guidance to National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

TC genesis prediction is another challenge work for the forecasters in operational centers. Based on the characteristic features of the vortices and their environmental flows in the ensemble forecast systems, we develop the new product for 48 hours TC genesis probability forecasts. The verifications indicate this product could be a good guidance for TC genesis forecasts.