Previous analysis has categorised all developing waves and all non-developing waves. This masks a lot of the detail with regard to non-developing waves that were seemingly favourable for development. Using the statistical model generated, this research is able to categorise waves into favourable and unfavourable for development. The favourable category includes most of the developing waves, but also a large number of non-developing waves. The research will then analyse the evolution and environmental impacts of the favourable but still non-developing waves. This analysis will reveal much more detail in why waves that are all initially favourable for development experience different outcomes downstream. Revealing the importance of wave scale processes and interactions with the environment.
While the research will be largely conducted using a reanalysis dataset for the temporal and spatial continuity. Results will be confirmed with in situ observations taken from the NASA HS3 field campaign. Dropsondes were dropped across both the developing pre-Nadine wave and through a saharan air layer outbreak near a non-developing wave. These in situ observations will confirm the structure and characteristics of the environmental air around the systems.