Correlation Between Named Storm Genesis Locations and Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity: A Possible Link to Seasonal SAL Frequency

Studies of the eastern portion of the Atlantic basin MDR (East of 42 degrees West) from 1987-2008 reveal a strong correlation between the number of storms that formed in that region and seasonal TC activity. During the 12 years when three or fewer named storms developed in that area, an average of 10.1 named storms formed basin-wide during those hurricane seasons. For the 10 seasons when four or more named storms developed in the eastern area, there was a seasonal average of 15.8 named storms. Most, if not all, of the seasons when 3 or fewer storms formed in the eastern portion of the MDR, coincided with the same years high Saharan Air Layer (SAL) activity was noted in the region during June, July, August and early September. Preliminary analysis suggests SALs play an undetermined, yet possibly significant, role in the yearly modulation of Atlantic Basin TC activity. Further analysis using microwave derived total precipitable water (TPW) is currently underway to quantify SAL activity during this study period.