Session 1A Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction and Interannual Variability

Monday, 31 March 2014: 8:15 AM-10:00 AM
Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Host: 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair:
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

Papers:
8:15 AM
1A.1
Thirty Years of Making Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts - Lessons Learned, Certitudes Abandoned
William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.4 MB)

8:30 AM
1A.2
New Challenges and Expectations of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones
Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL; UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
1A.3
Predicting Tropical Cyclone Landfall Risk Through Genesis and Steering Climatology
Ryan Truchelut, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

9:00 AM
1A.4
Correlation Between Named Storm Genesis Locations and Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity: A Possible Link to Seasonal SAL Frequency
Evan B. Forde, NOAA/AOML/CSND, Miami, FL; and M. Black and J. Dunion

9:15 AM
1A.5
Impacts of Extratropical Forcing on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang
Recorded Presentation

1A.6
Climate Dynamics of Easterly Waves in the North Atlantic and East Pacific

9:30 AM
1A.6A
Beyond Two-week Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Events in Western North Pacific and Atlantic
Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and H. C. Tsai and M. S. Jordan
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1A.7
Modulation of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Using an Extended MJO Index (1905-2011)
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
Recorded Presentation

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