Upgrades to the Operational GFDL Model Planned for 2014

Major upgrades are planned for the GFDL operational hurricane model for the 2014 season. These changes include increase of the horizonatl resolution of the inner nest from 1/12th to 1/18th degree, which is the highest resolution that can be achieved for a hydrostatic model. In collaboration with the University of Rhode Island and the HWRF group at EMC/NCEP, the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) used for the coupling both for GFDL and HWRF, is being replaced with an upgraded version, with double resolution, improved ocean physics, and larger ocean domain that spans the entire Atlantic, or East and Central Pacific.

Additional improvements are being planned for the model atmospheric physics, including improvements to the Planetary Boundary layer, the Ferrier micro-physics, and more accurate specification of the initial storm intensity.

Preliminary results are showing significantly improved track and intensity forecasts in both the Atlantic and East Pacific, particularly with reduced negative bias for the most of the intense storms, and reduced positive bias, for some of the slower moving storms where the ocean response is being better predicted. Examples will be shown. To evaluate the impact of the improved model on multiple seasons, reruns are currently underway, for the entire 2008 through 2013 Atlantic and East Pacific seasons. Summary of these results will be presented and compared to the current GFDL and HWRF operational model as well as the new upgraded HWRF model that is also planned for operational implementation in 2014. ~