14C.8 Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Thursday, 3 April 2014: 3:15 PM
Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Michael E. Kozar, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and V. Misra
Manuscript (394.1 kB)

Integrated Kinetic Energy is a useful quantity that measures the size and strength of a tropical cyclone's wind field. As a result, it is inherently related to the destructive potential of these powerful storms. In most current operational settings, there are limited resources designed to assess the kinetic energy of a tropical cyclone, as forecasting storm track and maximum intensity are typically prioritized. Therefore, to complement existing forecasting tools, a statistical scheme is created to predict integrated kinetic energy for North Atlantic tropical cyclones 72-hours into the future. The resulting forecast scheme, named Statistical Prediction of Integrated Kinetic Energy (SPIKE), utilizes multivariate regression models trained on a combination of environmental and storm-related predictors outputted from dynamical models. The scheme is developed and cross-validated using a combination of National Hurricane Center best-track data and developmental data from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for all tropical cyclones occurring from 1988 through 2011. Further validation of SPIKE's forecast skill is performed using archived numerical forecasts from specific hurricanes in the subsequent seasons outside of the training interval to create multiple kinetic energy hindcasts. These validation tests reveal that SPIKE is capable of explaining more than 80% of observed integrated kinetic energy variance 12 hours into the future, trailing down to still above 50% explained variance at t+72 hours. The resulting forecasts of kinetic energy from SPIKE would be valuable not only for assessing future TC damage potential, but also for estimating operational wind radii and analyzing TC life cycles in real time via IKE-Vmax diagrams.
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