National Hurricane Center Wind Radii Forecast Verification

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides a real-time analysis of the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii of tropical cyclones in four quadrants and forecasts these variables up to 72 h in the future. Although the NHC verifies its track and intensity forecasts, the wind radii forecasts are not officially verified. The reason why a standard verification of the wind radii forecasts has not been performed is largely because of the lack of data to estimate the wind field of tropical cyclones. In an attempt to overcome these data deficiencies, a sample that only includes Atlantic tropical cyclones that were investigated by reconnaissance aircraft between 2008 and 2012 is used. This study provides an analysis of the skillfulness of the NHC wind radii forecasts compared to climatology and the available model guidance.