141 Climatological probabilities of tropical cyclogenesis based on Joint Typhoon Warning Center Dvorak analyses

Thursday, 3 April 2014
Golden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. E. Kucas and C. Velden

This study follows the work of Cossuth et al. (2013), which examined the available historical pre-genesis Dvorak classifications for the Atlantic and east/central Pacific basins to provide climatological probabilistic TC genesis guidance for those basins. Operational Dvorak analyses of invest systems from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center are available since 2010 for the western North Pacific, western South Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and South Indian Ocean basins. The following work uses these pre-genesis Dvorak analyses to develop a similar probabilistic-based genesis scheme and define physically-based genesis regions.

Fortunately for operational forecasting, our findings indicate that probabilities of TC genesis scale well with both lead-time and Dvorak T-number. Pre-genesis disturbances that are analyzed at higher Dvorak intensities are generally found to have a greater likelihood of subsequent genesis into a tropical depression and/or storm. Differences in TC formation definition and potential between basins will be discussed. For example, for a given T-number, systems in the western North Pacific have the greatest likelihood of become a TC. Furthermore, systems in the North Indian Ocean show the longest lead-time before genesis while the Southern Hemisphere basins exhibit the shortest lead-time. Statistics on both pre-genesis and non-genesis systems will be shown, along with comparisons that show the distribution of systems and Dvorak classifications between basins.

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