Update on the SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) Algorithm for Estimating TC Intensity

The SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) algorithm developed at CIMSS objectively combines TC intensity estimates analyzed from satellite infrared and microwave-based methods to produce a consensus estimate which is more skillful than the individual members. Current members of SATCON include the CIMSS ADT along with the CIMSS and CIRA microwave sounder-based algorithms. SATCON provides the TC forecaster with the ability to quickly reconcile differences in objective intensity methods, thus decreasing the amount of time spent on the analysis of current intensity. Real-time SATCON estimates are made available to interested global TC analysis and forecast centers during the respective TC seasons. Each individual member of SATCON has strengths and weaknesses in terms of its intensity estimation proficiency. For example, the ADT method tends to perform best when there is a clear eye present in the IR imagery. However, the performance can be degraded when the TC encounters strong wind shear. The sounder-based methods suffer from varying degrees of sub-sampling and perform best when the TC eye is greater than 50 km in diameter. SATCON makes use of this situational performance information to optimally combine the estimates into a single estimate that attempts to maximize the strengths while minimizing the weaknesses. The actual weights used in the SATCON algorithm are derived from the RMSE errors for the individual members in given situations. The latest SATCON science upgrades, new input data sources, and performance statistics will be shown in this poster.