162 RPI2.0 2013 Seasonal Landfall Competition Results

Thursday, 3 April 2014
Golden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Mark P. Guishard, Risk Prediction Initiative, BIOS, St. George's, Bermuda; and C. King, F. Niehoerster, and R. Murnane

RPI2.0 has calculated climatologies for landfalls in each of 6 regions (Entire Atlantic/Gulf US Coastline, Gulf of Mexico, Southeast, Central East Coast, Northeast, and Florida) for the periods 1900-2011 and 2007-2011 to provide context for seasonal forecasts. The climatologies of landfall are based on the assumption that the landfall rate can be approximated using a Poisson distribution, using the landfall with the highest wind speed in the region for each storm. Forecasts of the probability of landfall for each region during the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season were then invited for submission in 4 separate rounds (in December 2012, March, May and August 2013), to a competition administered by RPI2.0. Scoring to determine skill against climatological landfall probabilities was undertaken following the end of the 2013 season, and the winners were those who achieved the most skill above climatology, at the region of landfall, intensity at landfall and counts of total numbers of landfalls. Additionally, scores were calculated of the ‘crowd' forecast (median and mean of the group of submissions) for each round, to determine the value of crowd intelligence in this effort.
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner