3A.5 Advancing hurricane prediction models through enhanced physics of the air-sea-wave coupling

Monday, 31 March 2014: 2:30 PM
Pacific Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Reichl, T. Hara, and B. Thomas

A coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling framework has been developed for HWRF and GFDL hurricane predictions systems that is based on a comprehensive, physics-based treatment of the wind-wave-current interaction. In this framework, the surface boundary condition of the atmospheric model incorporates the sea-state dependent air-sea momentum flux. The wave model is forced by the sea-state dependent wind stress and includes the ocean surface current effect. The ocean model is forced by the sea-state dependent momentum flux and includes the ocean surface wave effects such as the Coriolis-Stokes and wave growth/decay effects.

In this presentation we will focus on the sensitivity of the hurricane predictions to the parameterization of the sea state dependence of the momentum flux. We compare two different theories for calculating the wave form induced stress from modeled wave height spectrum. The primary differences include the impact of breaking waves, parameterization of the stress due to momentum flux from the wind into the waves and the feedback of the wave-induced stress on the wind profile. The first theory (Reichl et al. 2013) has no explicit breaking wave calculation, a wind stress parameterized wave-induced stress, and an energy conserving wave boundary layer wind profile. The second theory (Donelan et al. 2012) accounts for breaking waves, parameterizes the wave-induced stress from the wind speed, and attaches a logarithmic wind profile.

We will also discuss the surface wave effect on the ocean model forcing and sea surface temperature prediction. It is shown that the effective wind forcing (momentum flux) on ocean currents may be significantly different from the wind stress under tropical cyclone conditions, where the surface wave field is typically less developed and more complex. The Coriolis-Stokes and wave growth/decay effects can lead to significant changes in SST response and thus the air-sea heat and moisture fluxes.

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