An Overview of Recent COAMPS-TC Advancements

The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) has been developed specifically for forecasting tropical cyclone track, structure and intensity. In the presentation, we will provide an overview on the recent development and performance of COAMPS-TC, as well as the transition of the system to Navy operations at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center. The COAMPS-TC has been tested in real time in both coupled and uncoupled modes over the past several tropical cyclone seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic basins at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. The real-time testing has been motivated by several recent multi-agency programs and efforts: i) the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which is focused on the W. Atlantic and E. Pacific basins, ii) the recent NASA HS3 program, and iii) pre-operational testing of COAMPS-TC in W. Atlantic and W. Pacific basin. An evaluation of a large sample of real time forecasts for 2010-2013 in the Atlantic basin reveals that the COAMPS-TC intensity predictions have intensity errors on par or better than many of the established real-time dynamical forecast models.

As an example, real-time forecasts for Hurricane Sandy (2012) illustrate the capability of COAMPS-TC to capture the track, intensity and the fine-scale features in close agreement with observations. Observation impact experiments highlight the importance of satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors for accurate forecasts of Hurricane Sandy. Additionally, evaluation of real-time COAMPS-TC forecasts will be presented with a focus on challenges and successes related to tropical cyclone intensity prediction. Recent results for a high-resolution (3 km) COAMPS-TC ensemble that was run over the W. Atlantic basins will be discussed as well. The results of this research highlight the promise of high-resolution deterministic and ensemble-based approaches for tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC.