Relationships Between Convective Asymmetry, Imbalance and Intensity in Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclones on the F-Plane

This paper examines the relationships between convective asymmetry, imbalance and intensity in tropical cyclones (TCs) that emerge from random winds on the periodic f-plane in a cloud-system-resolving numerical model. The model is configured with warm-rain microphysics and includes a basic parameterization of longwave radiation. Within the simulation set, the sea-surface temperature ranges from 26 to 32 ^oC, and the Coriolis parameter f ranges from 10^-5 to 10^-4 s^-1. The number of TCs that develop in a simulation increases rapidly with f and ranges from 1 to 18. Taken together, the simulations provide a diverse spectrum of vortices that can be used for a meaningful statistical study.

Consistent with earlier studies, mature TCs with minimal asymmetry are found to have maximum wind speeds greater than the classic theoretical value derived by Emanuel under the assumptions of gradient-wind and hydrostatic balance. In a statistical sense, it is found that the degree of superintensity with respect to balance theory reliably decays with an increasing level of inner-core convective asymmetry (CA). It is verified that a more recent version of axisymmetric steady-state theory, revised to incorporate imbalance, provides a good approximation for the maximum (azimuthally averaged) azimuthal wind speed V_max when CA is relatively weak. More notably, this theory for axisymmetric vortices maintains less than 10% error as CA becomes comparable in magnitude to the symmetric component of inner-core convection. Above a large but well defined threshold of CA, axisymmetric steady-state theory generally overpredicts V_max. The underachievement of TCs in this parameter regime is shown to coincide with substantial violation of the theoretical assumption of slantwise convective neutrality in the main updraft of the basic state. Of further interest, a reliable curve-fit is obtained for the anticorrelation between a simple measure of CA and V_max normalized to an estimate of its balanced potential intensity that is based solely on environmental conditions and air-sea interaction parameters.

One notable caveat regarding the anticorrelation between CA and the degree of superintensity found here is that another anticorrelation exists between CA and the dimensional value of V_max. Sensitivity of results to the surface-flux formulas that depend on dimensional wind speed will be discussed. This work was supported by NSF grant AGS-1101713, and has been published under a similar title in Tellus A, 65, 20168 (2013).