Verification of TC genesis forecasts from global models: Updates and real-time applications

Recent research by Halperin et al. (2013) verified TC genesis forecasts in five global models (CMC, ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET) out to four days over the North Atlantic (NATL) basin during 2004-2011. This poster applies their methodology to update and expand their results. Genesis forecasts out to five days are verified and the 2012-2013 seasons are included. Genesis forecasts over the eastern North Pacific (EPAC) basin are also included in this analysis.

Standard statistical metrics are calculated. Results show noticeable year-to-year and basin differences among each of the models. Probability of detection is generally greater over the EPAC basin; on average, the models are improving over time over both basins; and, the "best performing" model varies each year.

This poster also will show how results from these historical genesis forecasts are applied in real-time. Spatial and temporal differences in model performance are leveraged to provide refined genesis probabilities based on the historical model performance.