An Update on the Performance of Real-time COAMPS-TC Forecasts and Recent Advances in COAMPS-TC Testing and Evaluation

Here we provide the latest performance statistics for COAMPS-TC, focusing on the extremely active 2015 Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season. COAMPS-TC is run for all TC basins worldwide, including the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific, Central North Pacific, Western North Pacific, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal in the Northern Hemisphere. Results compare the performance of the COAMPS-TC real-time NRL demonstration forecasts (CTCX) and operational COAMPS-TC forecasts (COTC) with those of HWRF, GFDL, GFDN, GFS, and NAVGEM. The results clearly indicate that regional model track performance is strongly dependent on the choice of parent global model (GFS or NAVGEM), which influences the regional model forecast via the initial state and lateral boundary conditions. To complement the overall summary statistics, we will highlight results for specific TCs of interest such as Joaquin, Patricia, and Soudelor.

In addition to the aforementioned performance statistics, we will present some recent work regarding COAMPS-TC testing and evaluation, including strategies for defining a retrospective case sample for model testing, assessment of rapid intensification prediction, and preliminary results for the new atmosphere-ocean coupled version of COAMPS-TC.