32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Program Chairs: Paul E. Roundy , SUNY ; Jason P. Dunion , AOML

Program Committee: Larissa E. Back, William R. Boos, Scott Braun, Michael J. Brennan, Lisa Bucci, Daniel J. Cecil, James Doyle, S.G. Gopalakrishnan, Stephen Guimond, Patrick A. Harr, Greg Holland, Christopher E. Holloway, Boualem Khouider, George N. Kiladis, Phil Klotzbach, Timothy Marchok, Timothy Olander, Pallav Ray, Rosimar, Rios-Berrios, Robert F. Rogers, Naoko Sakaeda, Andrea Schumacher, Peter Sousounis, Vijay Tallapragada, Eric Uhlhorn, Allison Wing, Kimberly Wood, Jonathan Zawislak

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Sunday, 17 April 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 17 April 2016

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
Opening Session
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Patrick Harr, Jupiter Technologies; Christopher Velden, CIMSS
5:00 PM
Welcome To San Juan Entertainment and Reception
Recorded Presentation

6:00 PM
Recent Events in Review
Recorded Presentation

6:15 PM
PL1.1
Hurricane PATRICIA in Jalisco, Mexico
Josh Morgerman, iCyclone.com, West Hollywood, CA
Recorded Presentation

6:30 PM
PL1.2
National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam and the University of Guam Water and Environmental Research Institute Typhoon Soudelor Wind Assessment for Saipan
Mark A. Lander, University of Guam (WERI), Mangilao, Guam, Guam; and C. Guard
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.9 MB)

6:45 PM
PL1.3
The Tropical-Storms List
William Thorson, WeatherFlow, Fort Collins, CO
Recorded Presentation

Handout (508.6 kB)

Monday, 18 April 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 1A
Convection I
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Larissa E. Back, Univ. of Wisconsin
8:30 AM
1A.1
The natural horizontal scale of convective self-aggregation
Da Yang, Univ. of California, Davis, CA

8:45 AM
1A.2
Mechanisms for convective aggregation in idealized and realistic simulations
Christopher E. Holloway, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and S. J. Woolnough
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1A.3
Convective Cold Pools: Properties and Sea-Surface Temperature Dependence
Aryeh J. Drager, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever

9:15 AM
1A.4
Investigating Cold Pool Dynamics with a Lagrangian Perspective
Giuseppe Torri, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1A.5
Understanding convective organization in a changing climate
Stipo Sentic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. L. Sessions
Recorded Presentation

1A.6
Impacts of Shallow Convection on the Simulation of the Tropical Precipitation Diurnal Cycle

Recording files available
Session 1B
African Weather and Climate I
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher Thorncroft, SUNY, University at Albany
1B.1
Large scale Environment of Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa

8:45 AM
1B.2
How El-Nino affects Ethiopian summer rainfall
Stephanie Gleixner, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; and N. Keenlyside and E. Viste

9:00 AM
1B.3
Saharan Dust and the Nonlinear Evolution of the African Easterly Jet–African Easterly Wave System
Dustin Grogan, SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. Nathan and S. H. Chen

9:15 AM
1B.4
Influence of Mesoscale Convective Systems on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over Central Sub-Saharan Northern Africa
Edward Vizy, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook, W. Liu, and X. Sun
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
1B.5
Three-Dimensional Structure of African Easterly Waves based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions
Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

1B.6
Clarifying the role of hydrodynamic instability in the evolution of african easterly waves

Recording files available
Session 1C
HS3 I
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jason Sippel, EMC
8:30 AM
1C.1
Observations of the structure and evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during intensity change: Relationship between the thermodynamic structure and precipitation
Jonathan Zawislak, NOAA, Miami, FL; and G. R. Alvey III, R. F. Rogers, J. A. Zhang, E. J. Zipser, and H. Jiang
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
1C.2
Observations of the structure and evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during intensity change: Kinematic structure and the distribution of deep convection
Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, J. Zawislak, G. R. Alvey III, E. J. Zipser, and H. Jiang
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1C.3
Edouard's (2014) Precipitation Symmetry – An investigation using WRF-ARW
George R. Alvey III, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1C.4
Convection-permitting Ensemble Forecasts of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014): Predictability, Dynamics and Thermodynamic Structure
Erin B. Munsell, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (461.0 kB)

9:30 AM
1C.5
The impacts of Saharan dust on cloud microphysical and radiative processes in Hurricane Nadine (2012) during HS3
Jainn J. Shi, NASA/GSFC, Morgan State University/GESTAR, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun, W. K. Tao, Z. Tao, T. Matsui, and C. Peters-Lidard
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1C.6
The impact of Saharan dust on the intensity of Hurricane Nadine (2012) during HS3
Scott A. Braun, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and J. J. Shi and J. Sippel
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 1D
TC Genesis I
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
8:30 AM
1D.1
Cloud Evolution during Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation as Revealed by TRMM PR
Cody L. Fritz, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, S. W. Nesbitt, and T. J. Dunkerton
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
1D.2
A satellite analysis of mid-tropopsheric humidity and its impact on tropical cyclone genesis and intensification
Brian J. Soden, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Yeomans, E. S. Chung, and J. Cossuth
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1D.3
Convective Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Formation – Revisiting Zehr (1992)
Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1D.4
Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis in a Lagrangian Framework
Carl J. Schreck III,
Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.6 MB)

9:30 AM
1D.5
Evolution of Precipitation in Easterly Wave Critical Layers during Tropical Cylogenesis as Observed in TRMM Data
Louis L. Lussier III, NCAR, Broomfield, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, T. J. Dunkerton, and Z. Wang
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
1D.6
On the dynamics of the formation of the Kelvin cat's eye in tropical cyclogenesis
Ali Asaadi, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and G. Brunet and P. M. K. Yau
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 18 April 2016


Morning Break
Location: Ponce Foyer (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 2A
Convection II
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria
10:30 AM
2A.1
Entrainment and Dilution in Tropical Deep Convection
Walter Hannah, North Carolina State Univesity, Raleigh, NC; and E. D. Maloney
Recorded Presentation

2A.2
The Fundamental Global Cooling Influence of Enhanced Cumulonimbus (Cb) Convection

10:45 AM
2A.2A
Instabilities of Radiative Convective Equilibrium with an Interactive Surface
Tom Beucler, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

11:00 AM
2A.3
Exploring the Tropical Land-Ocean Convective Intensity Difference through Surface Bowen Ratio Variations and High Percentiles of the CAPE Distribution
Zachary R. Hansen, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and L. E. Back
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.2 MB)

11:15 AM
2A.4
Dependence of entrainment on vertical velocity and distance to cloud edge
Yang Tian, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2A.5
The Shape of CAPE: Undilute Parcel Buoyancy in the Tropics
Jacob T. Seeley, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2A.6
Analytical models for tropical CAPE
David M. Romps, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA

12:00 PM
2A.7
Effective Buoyancy, at the Surface and Aloft
Nadir Jeevanjee, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (419.4 kB)

Recording files available
Session 2B
African Weather and Climate II
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Edward K. Vizy, Univ. of Texas
10:30 AM
2B.1
Diabatic Rossby Waves as a Model for Convectively Coupled African Easterly Waves
James O. H. Russell, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. Aiyyer
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (774.2 kB)

10:45 AM
2B.2
Investigating The Origin of African Easterly Waves
Joshua Dylan White, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2B.3
About the influence of the African Easterly Waves in northern South America
Sara C. Vieira, Univ. de Antioquia, Medellin, Colombia; and S. Giraldo and P. A. Arias

Handout (8.2 MB)

11:15 AM
2B.4
On the Influence of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on African Easterly waves
Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY, University at Albany, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2B.5
Representation of African Easterly Waves in CMIP5 Models
Elinor Martin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. Thorncroft
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2B.6
Assessing the Predictability of African Easterly Waves in ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts
Travis J. Elless, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 2C
HS3 II
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Scott A. Braun, NASA
10:30 AM
2C.1
Impact of Environmental Moisture for TC Genesis from AEWs
Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
2C.2
Dry Air, Midlevel Flow, and the Establishment of Persistent Deep Convection prior to Tropical Cyclogenesis
Charles N. Helms, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and L. Bosart
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

2C.3
The Impact of HS3 Data Upon HWRF Forecasts

11:00 AM
2C3.A
A NU-WRF Simulation of Saharan Air Layer Structure and Its Impact on Radiation
Zhining Tao, USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun, J. J. Shi, and M. Chin
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2C.4
Airborne Radar Observations of Eyewall Replacement Cycles in Hurricane Gonzalo
Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Penn State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and G. Heymsfield, P. Reasor, and S. Guimond
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2C.5
Hurricane Outflow Jet Features Documented by Global Hawk Dropsondes and Satellite AMVs During HS3 as Targets for Future SHOUT Operations
Peter G. Black, SAIC/NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Dunion, S. A. Braun, and C. S. Velden
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
2C.6
An Analysis of the Tropical Cyclone Cirrus Canopy Using HS3 and TCI Observations
Patrick Duran, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (756.7 kB)

12:00 PM
2C.7
How do Moist Entropy and Moisture Budgets Relate to Tropical Cyclone Development?
Ana Juracic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 2D
TC Genesis II
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.
10:30 AM
2D.1
The Influence of an Upper Tropospheric Potential Vorticity Anomaly on Rapid Tropical Cyclogenesis
Michael S. Fischer, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. Tang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (7.6 MB)

10:45 AM
2D.2
The Influence of a Precursor Central American Gyre and a Northerly Surge into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Formation of Hurricane Patricia in October 2015
Lance F. Bosart, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY; and P. P. Papin, A. S. Levine, and A. M. Bentley
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
2D.3
Western North Pacific Monsoon Depressions: Transitions to Pre-tropical Cyclone Seedlings
Jodi Beattie, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and R. L. Elsberry
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
2D.4
A Climatology of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events
Benjamin A. Schenkel, University of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
2D.5
Climate Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Number Change in Mid-1990s over North Western Pacific
Ziniu Xiao, Institute of Atmospheric Physics/CAS Beijing China, beijing, China
Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.9 MB) Handout (1.6 MB)

11:45 AM
2D.6
Five Major Environmental Circulation Patterns for Tropical Cloud Cluster Developments in the Western North Pacific
Hsu-Feng Teng, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee and H. H. Hsu
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
2D.7
Effects of Tropical North Atlantic SST on Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the western North Pacific
Jinhua Yu, NUIST, Nanjing, China; and T. Li and Z. Tan
Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.3 MB)

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016


Lunch

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 3A
Convection III
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher E. Holloway, University of Reading
1:30 PM
3A.1
Precipitation over tropical islands
Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel

1:45 PM
3A.2
Gross moist stability variations, the vertical structure of convection and growth of moisture anomalies
Larissa E. Back, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and K. Inoue and Z. R. Hansen
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3A.3
Gross Moist Stability Assessment: Convective Amplification and Decay
Kuniaki Inoue, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and L. E. Back
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (595.9 kB)

2:15 PM
3A.4
Convective and Large-scale Mass Fluxes Determined from a Combined Analysis of Satellite Observations
Hirohiko Masunaga, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and Z. J. Luo
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3A.5
Stability and Instability criteria for Idealized Precipitating Hydrodynamics
Gerardo Hernandez-Duenas, National University of Mexico, Juriquilla, Queretaro, Mexico; and L. M. Smith and S. Stechmann
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3A.6
Balanced Tropical Dynamics and Convection
David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3A.7
The seasonal variation of Tibetan convective systems observed by satellite
Liang Hu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China, China; and X. Xu Sr., S. Gao, and D. Deng
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3A.8
Modeling the Interaction between Quasi-Geostrophic Vertical Motion and Convection in a Single Column
Ji Nie, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 3B
Air-Sea Interaction I
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide
1:30 PM
3B.1
Factors that impact air-sea structure in hurricanes
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA, Miami, FL; and E. A. Kalina
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
3B.2
Modeling Interaction of a Tropical Cyclone with Its Cold Wake
Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and P. A. Harr
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3B.3
Glider Observations of Upper Ocean Temperature and Dynamics During Three Hurricane Passages Through the Western Atlantic
Ruth Curry, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, St. George's, Bermuda; and M. P. Guishard
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3B.4
Variability in Upper-Ocean Thermal Structure beneath Tropical Cyclones as Observed by Air-Deployed Profiling Floats
Elizabeth R. Sanabia, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and S. R. Jayne, W. Swick, S. Chen, and J. Cummings
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3B.5
Thermal and Momentum Response of the Loop Current Complex to Hurricanes
Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Jaimes and E. W. Uhlhorn
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3B.6
A Positive Feedback Mechanism for Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over Warm Oceanic Mesoscale Features
Benjamin Jaimes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay and J. K. Brewster
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3B.7
The Air-sea Interface under Tropical Cyclones and Rapid Intensification of Some Storms to Major Tropical Cyclones
Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern Univ., Dania Beach, FL; and R. Lukas, M. A. Donelan, B. K. Haus, and I. Ginis
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3B.8
Mechanical Effect of Sea Spray on Tropical Cyclone Intensity under Idealized Conditions
Gian A. Villamil-Otero, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. Rastigejev, J. M. García-Rivera, and Y. L. Lin
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 3C
Seasonal Prediction and Interannual Variability I
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ.
1:30 PM
3C.1
Preliminary Evaluation of Variable-Resolution GCM Coupled 1-D Ocean Model for Seasonal Prediction
Chia-Ying Tu, Academic Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

1:45 PM
3C.2
Seasonal prediction of Australian region tropical cyclones: the respective influences of the subtropical Indian Ocean and ENSO
Hamish A. Ramsay, Monash Univesity, Clayton, Australia; and M. Richman and L. Leslie
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3C.3
Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in a New Non-hydrostatic GFDL HiRAM
Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

3C.4
15-day and 32-day super typhoon forecast in South China Sea and operational hazard warning to off-shore construction

2:15 PM
3C.4A
Relationship between Periodic Meridional Fluctuations and Summertime Wave Patterns associated with Tropical-cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and J. H. Liu
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3C.5
Subseasonal hurricane prediction using Nested-Grid HiRAM
Lucas M. Harris, NOAA/OAR/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
3C.6
Deterministic and Stochastic Aspects of ENSO's Impact on Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Christina M. Patricola, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. Saravanan and P. Chang

3:00 PM
3C.7
Understanding the Climatological Connection of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the Tropopause Variability
Madison Ferrara, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and F. Groff, Z. Moon, S. Robeson, and C. Kieu
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3C.8
Impacts of the Central Pacific El Niño on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean
Kevin K. W. Cheung, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and M. A. Sattar

Recording files available
Session 3D
Numerical Modeling I: Idealized Dynamics
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Stephen Guimond, University of Maryland
3D.1
On the Dynamics of Complexly Sheared Tropical Cyclone Convection

1:45 PM
3D.2
Nonlinear Response of a Tropical Cyclone Vortex to Prescribed Eyewall Heating with and without surface friction in TCM4: Implications for Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Junyao Heng, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
3D.3
Secondary eyewalls in idealized HWRF simulations
Lin Zhu, IMSG NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, W. Wang, Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
3D.4
A new method to simulate tropical cyclone boundary layers
George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
3D.5
The impact of gradient wind imbalance on tropical cyclone intensification
Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and M. Lee

Handout (1.1 MB)

2:45 PM
3D.6
Dry and Semi-Dry Tropical Cyclones
Timothy W. Cronin, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and D. R. Chavas
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
3D.7
Vortex Rossby wave propagation and wave-mean-flow interaction in 3D baroclinic TC-like vortices
Cen Gao, Florida International University, MIAMI, FL; and P. Zhu
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
3D.8
Barotropic and Baroclinic Processes Associated with Convective Development in the Deep Tropical Convective Regime
Xiaofan Li, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; and G. Zhai
Recorded Presentation

Handout (914.0 kB)

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016


Afternoon Break
Location: Ponce Foyer (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 4A
Convection IV
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ.
4A.1
Modeling the Coupling between Large-Scale Dynamics and Convection in the 2010 Pakistan Flood

4:15 PM
4A.2
A Stochastic Model for the Background Spectrum of Tropical Convection
Scott Hottovy, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. N. Stechmann
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
4A.3
Stochasticity of Convection in Giga-LES Data
Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and M. De La Chevrotière and A. J. Majda
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
4A.4
Stochasticity and Organization of Tropical Convection through a Multicloud Lattice Model
Elsa Cardoso-Bihlo, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
4A.5
A new Framework for Cumulus Parametrization - Ideas, Observations and first Results
Benjamin Moebis, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, VIC, Australia; and C. Jakob and K. Peters
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
4A.6
Representing coastal tropical convection in global climate models using stochastic models
Martin Bergemann, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and C. Jakob
Recorded Presentation

Handout (13.6 MB)

5:30 PM
4A.7
Sensitivity of Mesoscale Convective Cloud Systems to Changes in Microphysics and the Environment
Derek J. Posselt, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
4A.8
Disentangling dynamical and microphysical causes of tropical convective precipitation biases in high-resolution simulations
Adam C. Varble, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. W. Stanford, E. J. Zipser, J. W. Strapp, J. Delanoë, D. Leroy, A. V. Korolev, R. J. Potts, A. Protat, and A. Schwarzenboeck
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 4B
Air-Sea Interaction II
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
4:00 PM
4B.1
The South Pacific Ocean Climatology (SPOC)
Jodi K. Brewster, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
4B.2
Dynamic Potential Intensity: An Improved Representation of the Ocean's Impact on Tropical Cyclones
Karthik Balaguru, PNNL, Seattle, WA; and G. R. Foltz, L. R. Leung, E. A. D'Asaro, K. A. Emanuel, H. Liu, and S. E. Zedler
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
4B.3
Air-sea Interactions with an Eddy-resolving Coupled Climate Model
Malcolm J. Roberts, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and H. Hewitt, A. Shelly, C. Guiavarc'h, P. Hyder, and M. Mizielinski
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
4B.4
The Role of High Frequency Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction In Modulating Tropical Cyclone Activity
Enrico Scoccimarro, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia/Centro euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; and P. Fogli, S. Gualdi, S. Masina, and A. Navarra
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
4B.5
Ocean Surface Current Effects on the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation in DYNAMO Hindcasts with the Navy Earth System Model
James A. Ridout, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. F. Shriver, J. G. Richman, A. J. Wallcraft, M. K. Flatau, C. A. Reynolds, T. Shinoda, P. J. Hogan, T. G. Jensen, C. Chen, and N. P. Barton
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
4B.6
Estimating Biases in Tropical Cyclone Climatology Due to the Lack of Two-Way Air-Sea Coupling in High-Resolution Prescribed SST Experiments
Colin M. Zarzycki, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

4B.7
Effect of Air-Sea Coupling on Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model

5:45 PM
4B.8
L-band GNSS-R Retrieval Algorithms for Tropical Cyclones Based on Wind-Wave Growth Similarity
David D. Chen, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and P. A. Hwang
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 4C
Seasonal Prediction and Interannual Variability II
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC
4:00 PM
4C.1
Causes of Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of the Pacific-Japan Pattern in northern Summer
Li Tao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
4C.2
The interdecadal change of ENSO impact on wintertime East Asian climate
XiaoJing Jia, ZheJiang University, HangZhou, China
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
4C.3
The Early-1990s Climate Shift and the ENSO Diversity
Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and H. Paek
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
4C.4
The Climatological Effect of Saharan Dust on Global Tropical Cyclones in a Fully Coupled GCM
Jeffrey D. O. Strong, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (9.3 MB)

5:00 PM
4C.5
The Record-Breaking 2015 North Central Pacific Hurricane Season
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. S. Blake and R. Maue
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
4C.6
Tropical cyclone landfall in Japan during 1900-2014
Hisayuki Kubota, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and R. Kumazawa and H. Fudeyasu
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM
4C.7
Contributions of Scale-interaction to the Decadal Change in Tropical Cyclone in Autumn over the western North Pacific
Pang-chi Hsu, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and T. H. Lee and C. H. Tsou
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
4C.8
An Introduction to the NASA East Pacific Origins and Characteristics of Hurricanes (EPOCH) Field Campaign
Amber E. Emory, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. McLinden, M. Schreier, and G. A. Wick
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 4D
Numerical Modeling II: Microphysics and Evaluation
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: James Doyle, NRL
4:00 PM
4D.1
Explicit electrification and lightning in a 350 m WRF-ARW simulation of Hurricane Isaac (2012): Comparisons with observations and relationships with microphysics and kinematics
Alexandre Fierro, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and E. R. Mansell, D. R. MacGorman, and C. Ziegler
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
4D.2
Uncertainty in model climate sensitivity traced to representations of cumulus precipitation microphysics
Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and J. C. Golaz, I. M. Held, V. Ramaswamy, S. J. Lin, Y. Ming, P. Ginoux, B. Wyman, L. Donner, D. Paynter, and H. Guo

4:30 PM
4D.3
An Evaluation of Alternative Species-Advecting Microphyiscs Schemes in Hurricane WRF
Christina Holt, NOAA ESRL, CIRES, Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, Z. Zhang, S. Trahan, L. R. Bernardet, G. Thompson, and K. M. Newman
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
4D.4
Evaluation of microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes in the HWRF model using satellite observations
Jason Otkin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis, A. L. Lenzen, B. McNoldy, and S. J. Majumdar
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
4D.5
Toward Identifying and Understanding Errors in Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Benjamin W. Green, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and H. Winterbottom, E. A. Kalina, and J. J. Cione
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
4D.6
The Impact of Microphysics, Resolution, and Domain Size on Tropical Convection Systems
Wei-Kuo Tao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. D. Chern, S. E. Lang, D. Wu, K. I. Mohr, X. Li, M. I. Lee, and S. Y. Kim
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM
4D.7
A Comparison between Hurricane WRF and TWRF in Typhoon Track and Rainfall Forecast over the western North Pacific
Chin-Cheng Tsai, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, Taipei City, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, D. S. Chen, J. W. Bao, and C. S. Lee
Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.4 MB) Handout (2.2 MB)

5:45 PM
4D.8
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Spinup Time and Convection to the Initial Entropy Deficit
Joshua J. Alland, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. Tang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.5 MB)

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016


AMS Icebreaker
Location: Royal Room (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 5A
DA and Observing Systems I
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael M. Bell, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa
8:00 AM
5A.1
SHOUT – Assessing the Utility of Unmanned Aircraft for Improving Operational Forecasts of Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones
Gary A. Wick, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Hood, J. P. Dunion, M. L. Black, P. M. Kenul, and J. J. Coffey
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
5A.2
Initial assessment of NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft remote sensing observations
Hui Christophersen, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and J. Dunion, A. Aksoy, and B. Dahl
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
5A.3
The Impact of NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft Observations on HEDAS Surface Wind Analyses
Kathryn Sellwood, University of Miami CIMAS and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and B. W. Klotz, B. Annane, A. Aksoy, J. Dunion, H. Christopherson, and B. Dahl
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
5A.4
Improving the prediction and understanding of hurricane rapid intensity change through assimilating TCI and IFEX field campaign data using the hybrid EnVar system
Xuguang Wang, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, Norman, OK; and X. Lu
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
5A.5
Underwater Glider Observations in the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic Ocean in Support of Tropical Cyclone Studies
Gustavo Goni, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. Domingues, F. Bringas, J. Morell, G. R. Halliwell Jr., S. K. Lee, H. S. Kim, L. Pomales, and J. Dong

9:15 AM
5A.6
Preliminary Evaluation of the First Rocket-Deployed Dropsonde Observations in a Tropical Cyclone: A Project EXOTICCA Case Study in STY Mujigae (2015)
jie tang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration, PRC,Shanghai, shanghai, Shanghai, China; and X. Lei, B. zhao, and P. G. Black
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
5A.7
Impacts of an Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts
Lisa Bucci, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and G. D. Emmitt, J. A. Zhang, H. Christophersen, K. Ryan, C. O'Handley, A. Aksoy, B. Dahl, and R. Atlas
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
5A.8
Assessing the Value of the Coyote UAS Platform and Observations from the Perspective of Tropical Cyclone Data Assimilation and Prediction
Altug Aksoy, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione, H. Christophersen, and B. Dahl
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 5B
Monsoons I
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Hanh Nguyen, Bureau of Meteorology
8:00 AM
5B.1
Understanding the Asian Summer Monsoon Response to Greenhouse Warming: The Relative Roles of Direct Radiative Forcing and SST Change
Xiaoqiong Li, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and M. Ting
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.1 MB)

8:15 AM
5B.2
Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under a high emission climate change scenario using CMIP5 climate models
S. Sharmila, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; and A. Sahai, S. Joseph, S. Abhilash, and R. Chattopadhyay
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.9 MB)

8:30 AM
5B.3
Near-Linear Response of Mean Monsoon Strength to a Broad Range of Radiative Forcings
William R. Boos, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and T. Storelvmo
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
5B.4
Role of stratiform heating on the organization of convection over the monsoon trough
Ajayamohan Ravindran, New York University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and B. Khouider, A. J. Majda, and Q. Deng
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
5B.5
Monsoons over an Idealized Zonally-Symmetric Continent
Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and A. Laraia
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
5B.6
The Influence of Idealized Topography on Zonally Asymmetric ITCZ Migrations
Ho-Hsuan Wei, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
5B.7
The atmosphere-ocean interaction and development of the 2015 Asian monsoon in coupled NAVGEM/HYCOM Simulations
Maria Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Ridout, N. P. Barton, C. Reynolds, and M. Janiga

9:45 AM
5B.8
High Resolution Soil Moisture and Temperature assimilation over Indian Monsoon region under National Monsoon Mission (NMM) Project: Impact study on Monsoon Depressions
U. C. Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, India; and K. K. Osuri, M. Rajeevan, and D. Niyogi
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 5C
Hazard Communication
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS/Univ. of Miami)
8:00 AM
5C.1
Dissemination of forecast products through the NHC website: today and moving forward
David A. Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center, NCEP/NWS, Miami, FL, Miami, FL; and M. Sardi
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
5C.2
Tailoring Hurricane-related Decision Support for Varying Risk Tolerances
Pablo Santos, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and D. Sharp
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
5C.3
Educating Students about Hurricane Hazards and Preparedness
John P. Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, C. W. Knowlton, H. Morin, A. B. Damiano, and R. G. Henning
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
5C.4
The Effective Hurricane Messaging Course: Preparing NWS Decision Support Specialists for Hurricane Emergencies
David Sharp, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and P. Santos, A. Devanas, M. J. Moreland, D. P. Brown, J. McNatt, J. Koch, and S. White
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
5C.5
Improving Communication of Hurricane and Storm Surge Risks in the Modern Information Environment
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Watts, C. M. Barton, J. L. Demuth, H. Lazrus, O. Wilhelmi, C. A. Davis, C. Snyder, L. Palen, and K. M. Anderson
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
5C.6
Coastal Flooding Decision Support Tool for Forecast Operations in Alaska
Andrew David Moore, Student, Norman, OK
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
5C.7
Modeling Hurricane Impacts On Gulf Of Mexico Offshore Structures. Why Size Matters
Jill F. Hasling, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.3 MB)

9:45 AM
5C.8
An Index for Cyclone Damage Potential
Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Done, M. Ge, and R. Douglas
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 5D
Tropical Cyclone Intensity I: Observations of Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Derrick C. Herndon, CIMSS
8:00 AM
5D.1
Western Hemisphere Record Reconnaissance Observations in Hurricane Patricia
Richard G. Henning, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, Lakeland, FL; and M. Holmes, P. Flaherty, I. Sears, J. Parrish, and A. B. Damiano
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (856.8 kB)

8:15 AM
5D.2
Analysis of Hurricanes Using Long-Range Lightning Detection Networks
Benjamin Christopher Trabing, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Knaff
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (582.3 kB)

8:30 AM
5D.3
Understanding the Relationship Between Lightning Outbreaks and Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change
Stephanie N. Stevenson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. Corbosiero
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

8:45 AM
5D.4
Radial and Azimuthal Variations in Convective Burst Structure in Tropical Cyclones from Airborne Doppler Observations
Joshua B. Wadler, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. F. Rogers
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (433.7 kB)

9:00 AM
5D.5
Examination of Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensification with the Extended Flight Level Dataset (FLIGHT+) from 1999 to 2012
Jonathan Martinez, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and M. M. Bell
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (329.0 kB)

9:15 AM
5D.6
The Intensity-dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate in Observations and in a Simple Energetic Model
Yuqing Wang, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, HI; and J. Xu, Z. Tan, and D. Schonemann
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
5D.7
Investigation of the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones using infrared and microwave imagery
Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia; and K. M. Wood
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
5D.8
The signal of future TC intensification in the Cloudsat measurements
Shun-Nan Wu, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (456.6 kB)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016


Morning Break
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 6A
DA and Observing Systems II
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
10:30 AM
6A.1
Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Vital Record for Typhoon Forecasts based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter Algorithm
Tien Duc Du, National hydro-meteorological service, Ha Noi, Vietnam; and T. Ngo-Duc and C. Kieu
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

10:45 AM
6A.2
Exploring the impact of tropical cyclone relocation for the operational NCEP GFS/GDAS
Daryl T. Kleist, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and K. L. Howard, R. Mahajan, and M. J. Brennan
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
6A.3
Standardization and Assimilation of Surface Wind Observations During Land-falling Tropical Cyclones
Marty Bell, WeatherFlow, Ft. Collins, CO; and F. Masters
Recorded Presentation

6A.4
IAU alike Initialization Applied to HWRF for Hurricane Forecast

11:30 AM
6A.5
A mesoscale hybrid data assimilation system based on the JMA nonhydrostatic model
Kosuke Ito, University of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and M. Kunii, T. Kawabata, K. Saito, and L. Duc
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
6A.6
OSSE Evaluation of Potential Aircraft Reconnaissance Flight Patterns and their Impact on Hurricane Forecasts
Kelly Ryan, CIMAS/Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
6A.7
Impact of Global Hawk Observing Strategies on Vortex-Scale Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in an OSSE Framework
Brittany Dahl, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and H. Christophersen, A. Aksoy, and J. Dunion
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 6B
Monsoons II
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology
10:30 AM
6B.1
Analysis of Gulf of California Moisture Surges in a Suite of Coupled Global Models of varying spatial Resolution
Salvatore Pascale, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Bordoni, S. Kapnick, G. Vecchi, T. L. Delworth, A. Rosati, L. Jia, and F. Zeng
Recorded Presentation

6B.2
Characterization of the Rainy Season of Mesoamerica
Manuscript (326.1 kB)

11:00 AM
6B.3
Probing the Spatiotemporal Structure of Hydrometeors in Indian Monsoon Depressions
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Univeristy of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and A. G. Turner
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.6 MB)

11:15 AM
6B.4
Perspectives on moist baroclinic instability: implications for the growth of monsoon depressions
Naftali Y. Cohen, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and W. R. Boos
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
6B.5
Synoptic-Dynamic Analysis of Early Dry-Season Rainfall Events in the Vietnamese Central Highlands
Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and R. van der Linden, T. Phan-Van, and L. Trinh-Tuan
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
6B.6
Interactions between tropical cyclones and near-by monsoon gyres
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA
Recorded Presentation

6B.7
Mapping information pathways of the Asian monsoon with pacemaker simulations

Recording files available
Session 6C
Historical Perspectives on TCs
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robert Hart, Florida State University
10:30 AM
6C.1
On the Scientific Accomplishments of Dr. José Angel Colón Pérez, the First Hurricane Researcher from Puerto Rico
Daniel Melendez, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and T. N. Krishnamurti, N. Dorst, H. A. Friedman, W. M. Gray, I. Matos, R. mendez, R. Mojica, A. Monzón, J. Morales, and E. J. Zipser
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
6C.2
The Atlantic Hurricane Seasons of 1837 and 1838
Cary J. Mock, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC; and C. W. Landsea and S. Delgado
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
6C.3
Reanalysis of the late 1950s and early 1960s Atlantic Hurricane Seasons
Sandy Delgado, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Miami, FL
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
6C.4
Hurricanes of Extraordinary Size: 1956's Greta, 1962's Ella, and 2012's Sandy
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and S. Delgado
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
6C.5
Historical Hurricanes in MERRA-2
Marangelly Fuentes, SSAI/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; and O. Reale

11:45 AM
6C.6
Cape Verde's First Hurricane in Modern Times: Preparation, Observations, WRF Model Forecasts and Recommendations
Gregory S. Jenkins, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and E. Brito, E. Soares, S. Chiao, J. P. Lima, F. Evora, B. Tavares, A. Cardoso, and M. R. Monteiro
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
6C.7
A Global Investigation of the Impacts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones on Societies
Denise L. Balukas, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie and K. M. Wood
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 6D
Tropical Cyclone Intensity II: Rapid Intensification
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John A. Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS
10:30 AM
6D.1
The Evolution of Rainfall and Convection in Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones based on 16 years of TRMM Data
Cheng Tao, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (859.5 kB)

10:45 AM
6D.2
Impact of Storm structure and the Environmental Conditions in the the Rapid Intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Patricia
Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. J. Morin, K. Emanuel, J. A. Knaff, C. Sampson, I. Ginis, and B. Thomas
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
6D.3
Possible predictors for the rapid intensification and evolution of hurricanes from near-coincident satellite observations of the structure of precipitation and surface winds: Hurricane Joaquin
Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and Z. S. Haddad, B. W. Stiles, T. P. J. Shen, N. Niamsuwan, F. J. Turk, P. P. Li, B. W. Knosp, Q. A. Vu, B. H. Lambrigtsen, and W. L. Poulsen
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
6D.4
Environmental Thresholds of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the South China Sea
Hao Hu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, beijing, China; and Y. Duan

11:30 AM
6D.5
Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean
Ke Peng, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and J. Fang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (2.2 MB)

11:45 AM
6D.6
A Statistical Analysis of Steady Eyewall Sizes Associated with Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes
Nannan Qin, Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China; and D. L. Zhang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (136.4 kB)

12:00 PM
6D.7
High Resolution Simulation of Super Typhoon Ramonsoon(2014): Inner Core Structure, Convective Burst and Validation of a Simple Energetic Model
Zhang Xinghai, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and D. Yihong and Y. Wang

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016


Lunch

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 7A
DA and Observing Systems III
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Altug Aksoy, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML
1:30 PM
7A.1
Impact of Having Realistic Tropical Cyclone Frequency on Ocean Heat Content & Transport Forecasts
Shaoqing N. Zhang, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
7A.2
Pilot Study in 2015 for the Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) in 2017-2019
Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and M. Katsumata, S. Mori, F. Syamsudin, and N. Nurhayati
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
7A.3
Ship-based in-situ observation of precipitating systems and accompanying atmosphere-ocean variations at the western end of the maritime continent: A contribution to Pre-YMC 2015 field campaign
Masaki Katsumata, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan; and B. Geng, K. Taniguchi, Q. Moteki, I. Matsui, Y. Kaneko, T. Suematsu, P. K. Putra, D. S. Banurea, M. Yokota, M. Hattori, M. Fujita, A. Yanase, S. Matsugishi, F. Syamsudin, and K. Yoneyama
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
7A.4
Using Dropsondes to Estimate Surface Fluxes in Tropical Cyclones: Uncertainty and Reliability
David H. Richter, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN; and R. Bohac and D. P. Stern
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
7A.5
The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation Tropical Cyclone Mission
Christopher S. Ruf, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and M. P. Clarizia, S. Gleason, A. Ridley, and D. J. Posselt
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
7A.6
Assessing the impact of assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface winds on tropical cyclone analyses and forecasts with regional OSSEs
Shixuan Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

3:00 PM
7A.7
Assimilating Himawari-8 Brightness Temperature: A Case Study on Typhoon Soudelor (2015)
Takumi Honda, RIKEN, Kobe, Japan; and G. Y. Lien, S. Nishizawa, R. Yoshida, S. A. Adachi, K. Terasaki, K. Okamoto, H. Tomita, K. Bessho, and T. Miyoshi
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
7A.8
Assimilation of All-sky Infrared Brightness Temperatures and Atmospheric Motion Vectors in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Masashi Minamide, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.6 MB)

Recording files available
Session 7B
Tropical Extratropical Interactions I
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: George N. Kiladis, NOAA/ESRL
1:30 PM
7B.1
A triggering factor of the eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation observed in late October during CINDY2011
Qoosaku Moteki, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka city, Japan
Recorded Presentation

Handout (21.7 MB)

1:45 PM
7B.2
Tropical-Extratropical Interactions with the MJO Skeleton and Climatological Mean Flow
Shengqian Chen, University of Wisconsin at Madison, Madison, WI; and A. J. Majda and S. N. Stechmann
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
7B.8
Tropical Cyclone Activity and Extratropical Rossby Wave Breaking: A See-Saw Relationship in the Atlantic Basin
Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.5 MB)

2:15 PM
7B.4
The Variability of the Tropical Diurnal Cycle Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Naoko Sakaeda, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
7B.5
An Analysis of Tropical Moisture Transport During Agricultural Drought Transition Periods Over the United States Corn Belt Region
Nicholas Joseph Schiraldi, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
7B.6
The Cloud-Radiative Forcing of the US landfalling Atmospheric Rivers
Qianwen Luo, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
7B.7
Influence of Cloud-Radiative Processes on Predecessor Rain Events
Omar A. Nava, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and R. G. Fovell
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.7 MB)

3:15 PM
7B.3
Intraseasonal Variability in the Tropics-Extratropics System: Internal Dynamics versus External Influences
Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and M. N. Morgan II

Recording files available
Session 7C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity III: Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY
1:30 PM
7C.1
Exceptional Surface Wind Gusts in a Tropical Cyclone Large Eddy Simulation
Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. H. Bryan and D. P. Stern
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
7C.2
The Tropical Cyclone Intensification Ratio: HWRF and Observations
Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
7C.3
What is the Role of Deep Convection in the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones?
John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
7C.4
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensification to Axisymmetric Heat Sources Part I: The Role of Inertial Stability
Georgina Paull, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
7C.5
Forced, balanced model of tropical cyclone intensification
Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (484.9 kB)

2:45 PM
7C.6
Revisiting the WISHE mechanism of hurricane intensification
Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and K. Emanuel
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
7C.7
Boundary Layer Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich, Germany; and G. Kilroy, C. Schmidt, N. Crnivec, and M. T. Montgomery
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
7C.8
The dynamics of intensification in an HWRF simulation of Hurricane Earl (2010)
Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. K. Smith and J. A. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 7D
TC Outflow & Structure: Early Results from TCI
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Patrick A. Harr, NSF
1:30 PM
7D.1
Overview of the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment: Unique Observations of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, J. Feldmeier, R. Ferek, M. Beaubien, D. J. Cecil, L. Harrison, and P. Harr
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
7D.2
Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Patricia Observed During TCI-2015
Michael M. Bell, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and J. Martinez, J. D. Doyle, and R. F. Rogers
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
7D.3
Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Observations in Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty (2015)
Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. Biswas
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
7D.4
Observational Evidence of Hurricane Outflow Layer Richardson Number Criticality
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
7D.5
Interactions between the Outflow of Tropical Cyclones Marty and Joaquin as revealed by outflow variability observed by HDSS soundings during the 2015 TCI Experiment
Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
7D.6
Analysis of High Temporal and Spatial Observations of Hurricane Joaquin during TCI-15
Russell L. Elsberry, University Colorado--Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, CO; and C. S. Velden, D. J. Cecil, M. M. Bell, and E. A. Hendricks
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
7D.7
Ensemble-based Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclone Outflow
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. R. Moskaitis, J. Doyle, and C. S. Velden
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
7D.8
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Outflow to the Environmental Flow
Yi Dai, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and D. Nolan
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016


Afternoon Break
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016


Formal Poster Viewing
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Poster Session
Air-Sea Interaction
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
1
Novel measurements of Sea Surface Temperature in Tropical Cyclones obtained from GPS dropsonde
Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione, E. A. Kalina, E. Uhlhorn, T. Hock, and J. A. Smith

2
Role of SST in Triggering the Summer WAM
Lander R. Crespo, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; and N. Keenlyside and S. Koseki

Handout (6.8 MB)

3
Influence of Amazonian vegetation on moisture transport toward equatorial America: a modeling perspective
Jhoana Agudelo, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellin, Colombia; and P. A. Arias, S. C. Vieira, J. F. Salazar, and J. A. Martinez

Handout (4.2 MB)

4
Sea Surface Cooling due to Precipitation in the Tropics
Camila G. M. Ramos, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray
Manuscript (319.0 kB)

Handout (3.0 MB)


Poster Session
Convection
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
5
A Case Study of the Effects of Saharan Mineral Dust Aerosols on the Structure of the African Easterly Jet–African Easterly Wave System
Emily Bercos-Hickey, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and T. R. Nathan and S. H. Chen

6
Evaluation of Simulated Tropical Convective Updraft Properties using HAIC-HIWC Aircraft Observations
McKenna W. Stanford, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. C. Varble

7
Sensitivity of the ACCESS forecast model statistical rainfall properties to resolution
Hanh Nguyen, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and A. Protat, M. Whimpey, and L. J. Rikus

8
Detecting Saharan Air Layer Influence on Organized Convective Systems in northern Africa
Karen I. Mohr, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Nicholls

9
The influence of the cloud radiative effect on the double ITCZ bias
Benjamin Moebis, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, VIC, Australia; and B. Stevens

10
Capturing Convergence Lines in the Tropics and Associated Rainfall
Evan Weller, Monash University, Clayton, Australia; and M. Reeder and C. Jakob

11
Characteristics and Moistening Effects of Shallow Clouds in the Tropical Western Pacific
David Zermeno, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

11A
Clouds, Circulation, and Climate Sensitivity in a Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Channel Model
Timothy W. Cronin, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and A. A. Wing

12
Comparing diabatic heating: conventional versus superparameterized climate model - related to the stochastic parameterization problem
Gino Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

13
Investigating Potential Biases in TRMM Measurements of Precipitation Systems with Extreme Rain Rates and Extreme Intensities
Alexandria C. Gingrey, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser, A. C. Varble, and S. Bang

14
Differences in the Evolution of Convection and Lightning between Land and Ocean: A Study Using TRMM and Ground-based Data
Sarah Bang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Zipser

15
Latent Heating Profiles over the Amazon in relation to the Atlantic Walker Circulation
Emily Monroe, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher

16
The effects of overshooting convection on mixing within the tropical tropical tropopause layer in idealised climate states
Hamish A. Ramsay, Monash Univesity, Clayton, Australia; and S. C. Sherwood and M. S. Singh

17
Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Shallow Convection in Hawaii during HERO
Michael M. Bell, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and A. Frambach


Poster Session
DA and Observing Systems
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
18
The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde Observations in the NCEP GSI/GFS System for Hurricane Joaquin (2015)
Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL; and K. L. Howard, S. J. Majumdar, and D. T. Kleist

19
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution ACCESS Model
Xingbao Wang, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and J. D. Kepert, N. E. Davidson, and Y. Xiao

20
Mitigating Aviation Weather Threats in the Upper Troposphere of Hurricanes
Vanessa M. Przybylo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Queensbury, NY; and M. Holmes, I. Sears, R. G. Henning, P. Flaherty, A. B. Damiano, and J. Parrish


Poster Session
Extratropical Transition
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
21
A Comparison of the Downstream Predictability Associated with Extratropical Transition and Baroclinic Cyclones
Ryan D. Torn, SUNY, Albany, NY

22
Investigating High Impact Weather Events over the Western United States Downstream of Extratropically Transitioning Tropical Cyclones using the GEFS/R
W. R. Strickler, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie and K. M. Wood

23
Ventilation Pathways and Air Stream Evolution during the Extratropical Transition of Typhoon Malakas (2010)
Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany; and T. Kremer, C. Euler, E. Schömer, C. M. Grams, and A. Miltenberger

24
A Climatology of Atmospheric Rivers


Poster Session
HFIP
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
27
Simulated Secondary Eyewall in Operational HWRF
Federico DiCatarina, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Abarca, W. Wang, Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada

28
Streamlining Transition of New Developments to the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Ligia R. Bernardet, CIRES/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Holt, J. Frimel, L. Carson, K. M. Newman, and M. K. Biswas

29
Global Expansion of a Statistical-Dynamical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction
Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and B. D. McNoldy

29A
Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Prediction with a High-resolution Regional Model: The COAMPS-TC ensemble
Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Reinecke and J. Doyle

Impact of stochastic model physics on hurricane intensity change forecasts


Poster Session
Hazard Communication
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
25
Understanding Public Hurricane Evacuation Decisions and Responses to Forecast and Warning Messages
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Demuth, J. K. Lazo, H. Lazrus, K. Dickinson, B. H. Morrow, and C. W. Trumbo

Handout (2.3 MB)

26
An Examination of Situation-Specific Uncertainty Statements in Tropical Cyclone Forecast Products
Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. L. Dagg


Poster Session
Intraseasonal Variability
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
32
Model Fidelity of Multi-scale Variability over the Maritime Continent
Dariusz B. Baranowski, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and X. Jiang

33
Subtropical PV Streamer Variability and Impact in the Subtropical North Atlantic Basin
Philippe P. Papin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

34
Predictability of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation based on Statistical Models: Sensitivity to ISO Indices
Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, IPRC, Honolulu, HI; and G. N. Kiladis

36
The Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of African Easterly Wave Activity
Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and G. N. Kiladis

37
Forecast Error Wavepackets in the Midlatitude Stormtrack associated with Recurving Typhoons

38
Improving MJO Forecasts in the Navy's Coupled Global Modeling System
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Ridout, M. K. Flatau, N. P. Barton, S. Yang, M. Janiga, and D. B. Baranowski

39
Convective Cold Pools over the Atlas Mountains and Their Influence on the Saharan Heat Low
Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz and R. Redl

Handout (3.7 MB)

40
Assessment of Gross Moist Stability and its Relationship to the MJO in Reanalysis Data
Naoko Sakaeda, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. E. Roundy

41
Dynamical downscaling of diurnal convection around the Maritime Continent associated with MJO activity
Mikiko Fujita, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

42
IntraSeasonal Variability of the Belg Rains in Ethiopia
Endalkachew Bekele Biratu, UCAR/CPC, College Park, MD; and W. M. Thiaw and D. Korecha

Handout (901.0 kB)

43
Diurnal Cycle of ITCZ Convection during DYNAMO
Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. Johnson


Poster Session
Large-Scale Circulation
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
44
Diurnal and its Impacts on Trade Wind and ITCZ
Wei Huang, Private, Houston, TX

Handout (4.5 MB)

45
What drives the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation?

46
Scale-interactions among Atmospheric Rivers, Mid-latitude Cyclones, and Planetary Waves

47
Climatology of Recurving Tropical Cyclones Interacting with the Extratropical Jet in the North Atlantic
Lauren E. Visin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and L. Brannan and J. M. Chagnon

48
The Global Circulation of TPW at High Temporal Resolution from Microwave Satellites
Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. Gerth, B. Ward, C. Scott, K. Kasper, and X. Zhan

49
The Zonally Resolved Atmospheric Energy Budget: A Predictive Theory For Orbitally Forced Regional Rainfall Changes
William R. Boos, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. Korty

50
Assessing the equatorial long-wave approximation: asymptotics and observational data analysis
H. Reed Ogrosky, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and S. N. Stechmann

51
Revisiting the role of eddies in determining the strength of the Hadley circulation
Martin S. Singh, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

52
Reevaluate Hadley Circulation
Wei Huang, Private, Houston, TX

Handout (4.9 MB)


Poster Session
NASA HS3
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
54
Tropical cyclone outflow and structure as revealed by high-resolution TCI and HS3 dropsonde data
William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle

55
Impact of HS3 Dropsonde Observations on COAMPS-TC Forecasts
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, D. Tyndall, and S. A. Braun

56
Secondary eyewall dynamics as captured by an unprecedented array of GPS dropsondes deployed into Edouard 2014
Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. T. Montgomery, S. A. Braun, and J. P. Dunion

57
Testing proposed mechanisms of outflow control on tropical cyclone intensification
Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and J. Persing, R. K. Smith, and T. J. Dunkerton


Poster Session
Operations and Landfall
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
58
Flood Inundation and Run-Off Modeling in Tropical Cyclones using the WRF-HYDRO Model
Konstantine Louis Pryles, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

59
An Update on the Performance of Real-time COAMPS-TC Forecasts and Recent Advances in COAMPS-TC Testing and Evaluation
Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle and R. M. Hodur

60
2015 Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
Nelsie A. Ramos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and H. D. Cobb III and M. J. Folmer

Handout (18.3 MB)

61
An integrated tool for forecasting tropical cyclone induced floods : the SPICY project
Francois Bonnardot, Meteo-France, Sainte-Clotide, Reunion; and H. Quetelard, O. Bousquet, D. Barbary, C. Barthe, S. Bielli, J. Meister, S. Lecacheux, R. Pedreros, F. Paris, E. Chateauminois, A. Nicolae-Lerma, J. Rohmer, R. Recouvreur, M. C. Germain, S. Sauvagnagues, P. A. Ayral, and F. Tena-Chollet

Handout (1.7 MB)

62
Near Real-time Forecast using a Global Nonhydrostatic Model for a Field Campaign in the Maritime Continent
Tomoe Nasuno, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and F. Vitart

63
Reducing Operational Hurricane Intensity Forecast Errors During Eyewall Replacement Cycles
James P. Kossin, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Madison, WI; and M. DeMaria

64
An evaluation of a real-time statistical-dynamical tropical cyclone genesis guidance tool based on global model output
Daniel J. Halperin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. E. Hart, H. E. Fuelberg, and J. Cossuth

65
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Model Improvement: Better Models or Easier Forecasts?
Kieran Bhatia, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Nolan

Handout (1.1 MB)

66
Bias-correction of Tropical Cyclone Structure in a Global Ensemble Prediction System
Jeffrey D. Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and H. Ye, S. Aijaz, and Z. Huang

67
Wave Modelling under a High Resolution Tropical Cyclone Model
Stefan Zieger, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and D. Greenslade and J. D. Kepert

68
A Forecasters' Handbook for West Africa
Mariane Diop-Kane, Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), Dakar, Senegal; and A. H. Fink, J. P. Lafore, A. Laing, B. L. Lamptey, D. J. Parker, L. Razafindrakoto, W. M. Thiaw, and C. Thorncroft

Handout (6.9 MB)

69
Evaluation of Capability of a Multi-model Ensemble System for Typhoon Forecast in Northwestern Pacific
Chou-Chun Chiang, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and D. Y. C. Chen, C. J. Wang, M. E. Hsieh, and L. Y. Chang

70
A New Interpretation of Global Tropical Cyclone Landfall Risk
N. Joss Matthewman, Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom; and S. R. A. Dey, E. Bellone, and S. Jewson


Poster Session
Recent Field Programs
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
70A
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Awards – An Integral Step Toward Research-to-Operations at the National Weather Service
Daniel Melendez, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer, V. Tallapragada, F. Marks, R. Gall, S. Gopalakrishnan, N. lett, C. Hedge, and M. DeMaria

71
NASA Global Hawk S-HIS Measurements During HS3
William L. Smith Sr., University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and J. K. Taylor, E. Weisz, D. H. DeSlover, R. K. Garcia, D. Hoese, H. E. Revercomb, and C. S. Velden

Handout (3.4 MB)

72
Using Virtual Dropsondes to Estimate the Sensitivity of Dropsonde Analyses to Sampling Errors
Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle

73
Connections Between the Ocean and Outflow in Hurricanes Iselle and Julio (2014)
Zachary Q. Barthelmes, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and L. V. Wilson III, E. R. Sanabia, and B. S. Barrett


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclone Intensity I
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
74
The Role of Monsoon Trough on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Vicente (2012) in South China Sea
Xiaomin Chen, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and Y. Wang, Z. Kun, and D. Wu

75
The Current Status of the UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Handout (7.0 MB)

76
Reprocessing the “Top Ten” Most Intense Historical Tropical Cyclones in the Satellite Era Using the Advanced Dvorak Technique
Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Olander, D. Herndon, and J. Kossin

77
Tropical Cyclone-Relative Environmental Helicity and the Pathways to Intensification in Shear
Matthew Onderlinde, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan
Manuscript (525.7 kB)

78
Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification using Passive Microwave Imagery
Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

79
Estimation of radius of 15m/s on Tropical Cyclone using Microwave Satellite data

80
Comparing CI-number/Pressure Relationships in the Western Pacific using HURSAT-ADT and Historical Reconnaissance
Carl J. Schreck III, J. P. Kossin, and C. Velden

Handout (1.1 MB)

81
A Climatology and Synoptic Composite Analysis of Very Small (a.k.a.: “Midget”) Tropical Cyclones undergoing Rapid Intensity Change
Thomas B. McKenzie III, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

82
A Climatology of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Systems over the Southwest Indian Ocean
Marie-Dominique Emmanuelle Leroux, CNRM, Sainte Clotilde Cedex, Reunion; and J. Meister, D. A. Mékiès, and O. Bousquet

Handout (1.6 MB)

83
Airborne Observation of Vertically-Sheared Hurricane Danny (2015)
Paul Reasor, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

84
The Impacts of Numerical Schemes on Asymmetric Hurricane Intensification
Stephen Guimond, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Reisner, S. Marras, and F. X. Giraldo


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclone Rainbands and Precipitation
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
85
Comparison of GPM and TRMM Satellite-Derived Precipitation Rates in Tropical Cyclones

86
Observation of Tropical Cyclone Self-Induced Barrier Layer
John Daniel Steffen, Florida State University/Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Chen, L. K. Shay, and B. Jaimes

87
The Effect of Precipitable Water on The Amount of Rainfall and The Rain-field Size for Tropical Cyclone Landfalling
Sanghoon Kim, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas

88
Spatial Analysis of Rainfall Patterns of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in Southeast United States
Yao Zhou, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas

89
Precipitation Analysis During Hurricane Landfall Situations Using NARR and UPD Data
Guoqian Yan, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
90
Use of the VIIRS Day-Night Band Imagery for Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting
Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff, R. T. DeMaria, M. DeMaria, and J. L. Beven

Handout (2.9 MB)

91
Influence of Simulated Space-based Doppler Wind Lidar on TC Analyses and Forecasts
Lisa Bucci, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, R. Atlas, G. D. Emmitt, S. Greco, and S. A. Wood

92
Improvement in TC analysis using dual methods of ADT and SDT operationally by COMS data in NMSC/KMA

93
Moisture and Precipitation Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Formation as Revealed by SSMI/SSMIS
Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and I. E. Hankes

94
Performance of the Revised SFMR Algorithm: 2015 Season in Review
Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/HRD, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, A. S. Goldstein, and I. PopStefanija

Handout (2.4 MB)

95
Examples of an Integrated Method of Tropical Cyclone Analysis Technique using Microwave Imagery and Data with Current Analysis Procedures in the Western North Pacific
Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam

Handout (4.0 MB)

96
A Study of the Constraints of the Dvorak Technique, Part 2: Examining Changes in the Cloud Patterns
John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi, T. B. Kimberlain, and M. Huffman


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclone Structure I
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
97
Representative and composite passive microwave satellite images of tropical cyclones as they lie on an eye size-intensity phase space
Joshua Cossuth, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. E. Hart

98
The response of tropical cyclone to transient symmetric and asymmetric inner-core heating
Guanghua Chen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China; and C. C. Wu

99
The impact of the diurnal insolation cycle on the tropical cyclone heat engine
Morgan E. O'Neill, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel; and D. Perez-Betancourt and A. A. Wing

100
Satellite Views of the Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle
John Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and T. Birner, G. Chirokova, L. Rivoire, and R. DeMaria

101
Secondary eyewall formation fueled by outer convective instability
Kosuke Ito, University of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and C. C. Wu

102
Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Size Change and Precipitation Distribution
Hiroki Tsuji, Kyushu University, Fukuoka-shi, Fukuoka-ken, Japan; and K. Nakajima

103
A different perspective on the influence of the outflow layer on tropical cyclone structure and intensity
Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY

104
Why is the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer not Well-Mixed?
Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and J. Schwendike and H. A. Ramsay

105
Annual Variability in the Force Balance at the Outflow Layer of Tropical Cyclones from NAM12-Reanalysis
Yair Cohen, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; and N. Harnik and E. Heifetz

5:45 PM-6:45 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 1
Town Hall: The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation Tropical Cyclone Mission
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher Ruf, University of Michigan
5:45 PM
CYGNSS Mission and Science Pverview - Randy Rose
Recorded Presentation

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016


Session 8
Bob and Joanne Simpson Commemorative Session: Planning for Tropical Cyclone Impacts
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Panelists: Jan Klein, Twelve Capital Zurich; Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ.; James Done, NCAR; Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ.
Chair: Greg J. Holland, NCAR

Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 9A
HFIP I
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ryan Torn, SUNY / Univ. at Albany
8:00 AM
9A.1
Role of HFIP in Advancing Operational Hurricane Modeling at NCEP/EMC: Current Status and Future Plans in the Context of NGGPS
Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
9A.2
HWRF 2014-2016: Advancing the State of the Art in Hurricane Numerical Guidance
Samuel Trahan, NCEP EMC (IMSG), College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, M. Tong, W. Wang, Q. Liu, B. Zhang, B. Liu, S. Abarca, H. S. Kim, D. Iredell, C. Kieu, Y. Kwon, J. Sippel, L. Zhu, T. Marchok, M. A. Bender, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, R. M. Yablonsky, G. Thompson, L. R. Bernardet, C. Holt, H. Tolman, and B. Lapenta
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
9A.3
Hook-Shaped Features in Hurricane Inner Core Region by Vertical Wind Shear and Dry Intrusion
Bin Liu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Sippel, S. Abarca, S. Trahan, Z. Zhang, L. Zhu, Q. Liu, W. Wang, K. Wu, H. S. Kim, M. Tong, and V. Tallapragada

8:45 AM
9A.4
An Evaluation of HWRF based Ensemble Prediction System for 2015 Atlantic Basin Real Time Parallel Experiment
Zhan Zhang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, R. Torn, S. Trahan, and K. Wu
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
9A.5
Diagnosing Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Large Short-Term Intensity Forecast Errors in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model
Daniel J. Halperin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
9A.6
Global Ensemble Forecasts for Tropical Cyclone Track and Genesis
Jiayi Peng, EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and R. Wobus
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
9A.7
HNMMB: Weaving the Proven Successes of HWRF into the NEMS Framework
Steven W. Diaz, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. Quirino, S. Gopalakrishnan, V. Tallapragada, W. Wang, Q. Liu, L. Zhu, T. Black, M. Pyle, X. Zhang, J. Delgado, B. Liu, and S. Trahan
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
9A.8
Transitioning Research to the Operational Hurricane WRF model: Overview of the Developmental Testbed Center Support and Testing Activities
Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Holt, M. K. Biswas, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, J. Frimel, J. Halley Gotway, S. Trahan, Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 9B
Intraseasonal Variability I
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Paul Roundy, SUNY; Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy
8:00 AM
9B.1
Observations of Convective Organization by the MJO
George N. Kiladis, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias and K. Kikuchi
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
9B.2
Convection Organization by the MJO during CINDY/DYNAMO Revealed by the Spatio-Temporal Wavelet Transform
Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, IPRC, Honolulu, HI; and G. N. Kiladis, J. Dias, and T. Nasuno
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
9B.3
Effect of Stratiform Heating on the Planetary-Scale Organization of Tropical Convection}
Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and Q. Deng, A. J. Majda, and A. M. Ravindran
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
9B.4
How the Occurrence of a Low-Level Moisture Anomaly Drives MJO Precipitation
Michael J. Herman, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
9B.5
Cloud and Rainfall Statistics from the MJO and the ITCZ over the Indian Ocean
Rachel C. Sodowsky, RSMAS, Miami, FL
Manuscript (587.3 kB)

9:15 AM
9B.6
The Emerging States of Madden-Julian Oscillation Convection Initiation
Matthew C. Bowers, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
9B.7
Examining Tropical Cyclone – Kelvin Wave Interactions using Adjoint Diagnostics
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle and X. Hong
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
9B.8
Large Scale Precipitation Tracking and the MJO Over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool
Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 9C
TC Remote Sensing I
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jason Dunion, AOML
8:00 AM
9C.1
Impact Of CYGNSS Data On Hurricane Analyses And Forecasts In A Regional OSSE Framework
Bachir Annane, Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and B. D. McNoldy, J. Delgado, L. Bucci, R. Atlas, and S. J. Majumdar

8:15 AM
9C.2
Evaluation of the Impact of CYGNSS Wind Speed Data on Tropical Cyclone Structure Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE
Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Annane, J. Delgado, L. Bucci, R. Atlas, and S. Majumdar
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
9C.3
Improvements In Wind Speed Retrieval for the CYGNSS Mission
Maria-Paola Clarizia, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Ruf
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
9C.4
A CYGNSS Tropical Cyclone Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) Science Data Product
Mary Morris, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. S. Ruf
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (415.1 kB)

9:00 AM
9C.5
The GNSS Reflectometry Response to the Ocean Surface Winds
P. S. Chang, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Jelenak, S. Soisuvarn, and F. Said
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
9C.6
Wave and Wind Direction Effects on Ocean Surface Emissivity Measurements
Heather M. Holbach, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn and M. A. Bourassa
Recorded Presentation

9C.7
A new generation of extreme wind speed measurements from space

9C.8
Extreme Surface Wind Observations in Hurricane Patricia

9:45 AM
9C.8A
The TROPICS smallsat tropical cyclone mission: High Temporal Resolution Microwave Imagery as Part of NASA’s Third Earth Venture-Instrument (EV-I3) Program
William Blackwell, Lexington, MA; and S. Braun, R. Bennartz, C. Velden, M. DeMaria, J. Dunion, R. Rogers, R. Atlas, and F. Marks
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 9D
Tropical Cyclone Intensity IV: Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Shear
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY
8:00 AM
9D.1
Using a Scatterometer-based, Low-wavenumber Analysis Tool to Evaluate Surface Wind Asymmetries in Tropical Cyclones
Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/HRD, UM/CIMAS, FIU, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
9D.2
Quantification of Shear-relative Precipitation Asymmetries of Tropical Cyclones in Different Intensity Change Stages
Yongxian Pei, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

8:30 AM
9D.3
Lagrangian Diagnostic of Ventilation Pathways: Case Study of an Idealized Tropical Cyclones in Vertical Wind Shear
Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany; and F. Laliberte
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
9D.4
Climatological Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear
Rosimar Rios-Berrios, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

9:00 AM
9D.5
Development and Application of a Tropical Cyclone Environmental Wind Climatology
Peter M. Finocchio, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

9:15 AM
9D.6
The Effect of Shallow-Layer Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the western North Pacific
Yunjie Rao, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, HI; and Y. Wang

9:30 AM
9D.7
The Tropical Cyclone Response to Smoothly Changing Wind Shear Using the Method of Time-Varying Point-Downscaling
Matthew Onderlinde, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (489.7 kB)

9:45 AM
9D.8
Quadrant-dependent Evolution of Low-level Tangential Wind of Tropical Cyclone in the Shear Flow
Jian-Feng Gu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Z. M. Tan and X. Qiu
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016


Morning Break
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 10A
HFIP II
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD
10:30 AM
10A.1
Evaluation Of The HWRF Radius Of Maximum Wind Using Doppler Radar Analyses
Frank Marks, AOML, Miami, FL; and K. J. Sellwood and S. Abarca
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
10A.2
Model Physics Influences on Tropical Cyclone Size
Yizhe Peggy Bu, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. G. Fovell
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
10A.3
Impact of Sub-Grid Scale Processes on Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones in HWRF System
Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and Z. zhu, S. Gopalakrishnan, R. A. Black, F. Marks, V. Tallapragada, J. A. Zhang, X. Zhang, and C. Gao
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
10A.4
Ensemble Forecast of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Hua Chen, NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and R. F. Rogers and S. Gopalakrishnan
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
10A.5
On the Role of the Tropopause Height in the Development of a Double Warm Core Structure in Intense Tropical Cyclones
Zachary Moon, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and C. Kieu
Recorded Presentation

Handout (7.4 MB)

11:45 AM
10A.6
Automated Quality Control and Analysis Methods for Real-Time and Research Processing of NOAA Airborne Doppler Radar Data
John F. Gamache, AOML, Miami, FL; and P. Reasor, P. P. Dodge, S. Otero, J. W. Hill, and F. Marks
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
10A.7
Towards Improving Explicitly Resolved and Sub-grid-scale Clouds in Hurricane WRF
Gregory Thompson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, K. Newman, M. K. Biswas, and C. Holt
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 10B
Intraseasonal Variability II
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL; Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, IPRC
10:30 AM
10B.1
Roles of Deep and Shallow Convection and Microphysics in MJO Simulations
Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. Pilon and J. Dudhia
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
10B.2
The interaction of diurnal cycle of convection and the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation across the maritime continent
Samson Hagos, PNNL/DOE, Richland, WA; and C. Zhang, Z. Feng, and C. Burleyson
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
10B.3
Kernel Analog Forecasting of Intraseasonal Oscillations
Dimitrios Giannakis, New York University, New York, NY; and R. Alexander, E. Szekely, and Z. Zhao
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
10B.4
Key Physics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Based on Multi-model Simulations
Xianan Jiang, University of California, Los Angeles, Pasadena, CA
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
10B.5
Further Evidence of Two Different MJO Flavors in High-Resolution Coupled Model Simulations
Benjamin W. Green, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, R. Bleck, S. G. Benjamin, G. Grell, and C. W. Fairall
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
10B.6
MJO prediction in a GFDL Coupled Model
Baoqiang Xiang, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and M. Zhao, X. Jiang, S. J. Lin, T. Li, J. X. Fu, and G. Vecchi
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
10B.7
DYNAMO MJO Events Simulated by a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Model: Sensitivity on Surface Fluxes
Xiaowen Li, Morgan State University, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao, T. Iguchi, S. D. Nicholls, and C. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 10C
TC Remote Sensing II
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin
10:30 AM
10C.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation via Passive Microwave Data Features
Richard L. Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cossuth
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
10C.2
SSMIS Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Opportunities
Jeffrey Hawkins, Goldenrod Blue Associates, Carmel, CA; and D. C. Herndon and C. S. Velden

11:00 AM
10C.3
Evaluation of the ATMS-MIRS and NUCAPS Retrievals in the Vicinity of the Tropical Cyclones
Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. F. Dostalek, R. T. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, K. D. Musgrave, and J. L. Beven
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
10C.4
Automated Objective Tropical Cyclone Eye Detection
Robert T. DeMaria, CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Knaff, G. Chirokova, and J. L. Beven
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
10C.5
The Need to Relate Tropical Cyclone Dynamics to Satellite-Observed Cloud Patterns: Why Does the Dvorak Technique Work?
John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
10C.6
The Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Karl (2010): New Remote Sensing Observations of Convective Bursts from the Global Hawk Platform
Stephen Guimond, NASA and UMD/ESSIC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Heymsfield, P. Reasor, and A. C. Didlake Jr.
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
10C.7
Satellite Signatures of Six TCs Which Rapidly Intensified in Shear
David R. Ryglicki, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and J. Cossuth
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 10D
Tropical Cyclone Intensity V: External Influences on Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Rosimar Rios-Berrios, SUNY
10D.1
The Influences of Mesoscale Ocean Eddies on Tropical Cyclone Intensities

10:45 AM
10D.2
Enthalpy Fluxes during Tropical Cyclones in the Caribbean Sea Relative to Ocean Variability
Johna E. Rudzin, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

11:00 AM
10D.3
Effects of Surface Roughness Representation on Hurricane Intensity and Structure Forecasts
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. W. Wang, J. R. Moskaitis, and J. Doyle

11:15 AM
10D.4
A Re-examination of the Relationship between Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclone and Sea Surface Temperature
Kelvin Sai-cheong Ng, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and M. H. Lee and Y. Zong
Recorded Presentation

Handout (7.9 MB)

11:30 AM
10D.5
On the nature of TC and trough-jet interactions
William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
10D.6
REVISITING TROUGH INTERACTIONS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE
Casey M. Peirano, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.0 MB)

12:00 PM
10D.7
The Influence of Saharan Air Layers on Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Intensity (1987-2008)
Evan B. Forde, NOAA/AOML/OD, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr.
Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016


Lunch

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 11A
Tropical Cyclone Structure I: PBL Processes
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: David Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
1:30 PM
11A.1
Time and Space Scales in the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer
Jeffrey D. Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
11A.2
Large Eddy Simulation on Entire Tropical Cyclones
Junshi Ito, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Oizumi and H. Niino
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
11A.3
Extreme Low-Level Downdrafts in Tropical Cyclones Measured by Dropwindsondes
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and K. Hansen
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
11A.4
Using Virtual Dropsondes in Large Eddy Simulations to Better Understand Observations of Extreme Updrafts and Near-Surface Wind Speeds
Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and G. H. Bryan
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
11A.5
The Role of Boundary Layer Dynamics in Secondary Eyewall Formation
Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
11A.6
The Role of the WISHE Mechanism in Secondary Eyewall Formation
Chieh-Jen Cheng, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
11A.7
Effect of Boundary Layer Roll Vortices on the Structure and Intensity of the Hurricane
Kun Gao, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

3:15 PM
11A.8
Influence of Temperature on the Beta Drift of Tropical Cyclones
Carlo Maria Corsaro, Imperial College London, LONDON, United Kingdom; and R. Toumi
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (427.8 kB)

Recording files available
Session 11B
Large Scale Circulation
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: William R. Boos, Yale University
1:30 PM
11B.1
Dynamical constraints on the ITCZ extent in planetary atmospheres
Sean Faulk, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and J. Mitchell and S. Bordoni
Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.2 MB)

1:45 PM
11B.2
Regionalization of the Hadley Circulation and implications for Australian rainfall
Hanh Nguyen, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and H. H. Hendon, E. P. Lim, E. D. Maloney, G. Boschat, B. Timbal, and C. Lucas
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
11B.3
Changes in the Hadley and Walker Circulations over the Maritime Continent
Juliane Schwendike, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and M. Reeder, G. Berry, and C. Jakob
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
11B.4
The Walker circulation, diabatic heating, and outgoing longwave radiation
Samuel N. Stechmann, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and H. R. Ogrosky
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
11B.5
Influence of Topography on the Precipitation and its Diurnal Cycle in the Maritime Continent
Haochen Tan, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray and M. Tewari
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
11B.6
On the nature of the Quasi-biweekly Oscillations of the South Asian Monsoon Anticyclone: Implications of the impermeability theorem on the macro-scale circulation of the atmosphere
Sebastián Ortega, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. Webster, H. R. Chang, and V. E. Toma
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
11B.7
Determining Periodic Behavior of Globally Averaged Tropical Jet Available Potential Energy
Lindsey E. Nytes, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

3:15 PM
11B.8
Analysis of angular momentum loss in weather prediction models
Ernesto W. Findlay, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (947.0 kB)

Recording files available
Session 11C
TC Remote Sensing III
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jeffrey Hawkins, Retired
1:30 PM
11C.1
Hurricane Winds from Synthetic Aperture Radar: Recent Developments
Hui Shen, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Perrie
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
11C.2
Boundary Layer Rolls Derived From SAR Wind Fields in Typhoon Megi
Astrid Alexandra Werkmeister, University of Miami - Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Key Biscayne, FL; and H. C. Graber
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
11C.3
The fall speeds and ice water paths of small and large ice species in Hurricane Arthur (2014)
Evan A. Kalina, NOAA, Miami, FL; and S. Y. Matrosov, F. D. Marks Jr., J. J. Cione, D. E. Kingsmill, M. M. Bell, R. A. Black, J. C. Hubbert, W. C. Lee, J. Vivekanandan, P. P. Dodge, and R. F. Rogers
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
11C.4
Evaluation of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV Tail Doppler Radar in Tropical Cyclones
Paul Reasor, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. F. Gamache, P. P. Dodge, and A. S. Goldstein
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
11C.5
Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Inflow from Satellite Scatterometers
Ralph C. Foster, APL, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. Zhang and P. Black
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
11C.6
Fetch- and Duration-Limited Nature of Surface Wave Growth inside Tropical Cyclones and Microwave Remote Sensing of Hurricane Wind Speed Using Dominant Wave Parameters
Paul A. Hwang, NRL, Washington, DC; and X. Li, B. Zhang, and E. Walsh
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (4.8 MB)

3:00 PM
11C.7
Recent and Future Updates to the Operational, Satellite-Based Tropical Cyclone Products Produced at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
John F. Dostalek, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and G. Chirokova, J. Knaff, S. Longmore, R. T. DeMaria, A. B. Schumacher, and C. Sampson
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
11C.8
Tropical Cyclone Passive Microwave Precipitative-Structure-Based Intensity Estimates
Margaret E. Kieper, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 11D
Tropical Cyclone Intensity VI: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin
1:30 PM
11D.1
Diagnostics of systematic intensity errors for tropical cyclones in ECMWF forecasts
Linus Magnusson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
11D.2
Is NHC Intensity Forecast Skill Increasing?
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. Cangialosi and P. J. Klotzbach
Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.8 MB)

2:00 PM
11D.3
Recent Improvements to NHC's Statistical-Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Models
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Miami, FL; and G. Chirokova, J. Knaff, K. D. Musgrave, and M. L. Bozeman
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
11D.4
Evaluation and Applications of the Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) Forecasting System
Kieran Bhatia, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Nolan, A. B. Schumacher, and M. DeMaria
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
11D.5
Guidance-on-Guidance for Bifurcations in Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and H. C. Tsai
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
11D.6
Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry

3:00 PM
11D.7
Upper Bound on Hurricane Intensity Forecast Errors
Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and Z. Moon
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
11D.8
A Statistical Model for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast in Northwest Pacific Ocean Considering the Land Effect
Qinglan Li, Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China; and Y. Peng, T. Tang, C. Cao, L. Zhang, and W. Xu
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016


Afternoon Break
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 12A
Tropical Cyclone Structure II: Precipitation Processes
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD
4:00 PM
12A.1
Physical interpretation of objectively defined tropical cyclone structural features in passive microwave satellite imagery
Joshua Cossuth, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Bankert and J. Hawkins
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
12A.2
Assessing the Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones with Infrared and Microwave Satellite Imagery
Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
12A.3
Further Evidence of the Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle
Jason Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Thorncroft, C. S. Velden, D. Nolan, B. W. Klotz, and B. A. Dahl
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
12A.4
Impacts of the Diurnal Radiation Cycle on the Formation, Intensity and Structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Xiaodong Tang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and F. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.9 MB)

5:00 PM
12A.5
Characterizing the Structure of Hurricane Karl (2010) Through Analysis of High-Resolution Doppler Radar Data and Numerical Simulations
Jennifer C. DeHart, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
12A.6
Development and Evolution of Convective Bursts in WRF Simulations of TCs Dean (2007) and Bill (2009)
Andrew Todd Hazelton, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (742.4 kB)

5:30 PM
12A.7
Eyewall Buoyancy and Intensity Change in Hurricane Rita (2005)
Annette M. Foerster, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and M. M. Bell
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
12A.8
Wavenumber-2 Deep Convection in Tropical Cyclones
H. C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and W. Y. Cheng, E. A. Hendricks, Y. T. Yang, and M. S. Peng
Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.7 MB)

Recording files available
Session 12B
Climate
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California
4:00 PM
12B.1
Process Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and D. Kim, A. A. Wing, A. H. Sobel, H. Murakami, E. Scoccimarro, M. Zhao, and G. A. Vecchi
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
12B.2
Direct Responses of the Tropical Circulation and Tropical Cyclones to Radiative Forcing Agents
Timothy M. Merlis, McGill Univ., Montreal, Canada; and F. Viale
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
12B.3
Climate Impacts of Historical Land Cover Change in Trinidad W.I
Renée C. Elder, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and M. Georgescu
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
12B.4
Shifts of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough and its Influence on Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific
Liguang Wu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
12B.5
Spatio-temporal Patterns of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity from Reanalyses and Global Climate Models
Sarah E. Strazzo, United States Military Academy, West Point, NY
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
12B.6
Nonlocality of tropical cyclone activity in idealized climate simulations
Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and S. M. A. Abdullah and K. R. Ayadiani

Handout (2.1 MB)

12B.7
Air-Sea Interaction shapes the spurious ‘double ITCZ' in coupled climate models

5:45 PM
12B.8
Evaluation of a Regional Climate Ensemble using Self-Organizing Maps
Abigail Jaye, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Bruyere and M. W. Seefeldt
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 12C
Catastrophe Modeling
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation
4:00 PM
12C.1
Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Risk through the Development of a Landfall Index for the North Atlantic Basin
Ryan Truchelut, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and E. M. Staehling
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
12C.2
A New Historical Database of Tropical Cyclone Position, Intensity, and Size Parameters Optimized for Wind Risk Modeling
Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, C. Williams, D. R. Chavas, N. Dorst, J. M. Done, G. Holland, and B. Brown
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (82.7 kB)

Handout (5.1 MB)

4:30 PM
12C.3
Medium-Term Hurricane Catastrophe Risk Models and Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperatures
Jara Imbers, Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom; and P. S. Wilson and E. Bellone

4:45 PM
12C.4
Blackout Forecast Model for Hurricane Hazards - Wind and Surge
William Ramstrom, Verisk Climate, Lexington, MA; and R. Luo
Recorded Presentation

Handout (17.9 MB)

5:00 PM
12C.5
TRMM Rainfall Estimates and Typhoon Rainfall Risk in the Western North Pacific Basin
Annes V. Haseemkunju, CoreLogic, Oakland, CA; and D. F. Smith and J. Brolley
Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM
12C.6
Quantification and Climatic Attribution of Covariance in Tropical Cyclone Activity across Teleconnected Basins
Susan E. Tolwinski-Ward, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and D. Wang
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM
12C.7
Towards a new tropical cyclone risk assessment system – The stochastic intensity and track models
Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
12C.8
Hybrid Real-Idealized Tropical Cyclones as a New Loss Tool
Cindy L. Bruyere, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Holland, B. W. Buckley, M. Leplastrier, P. Chan, M. Tingley, and A. Dyer
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 12D
Tropical Extratropical Interactions II
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin
4:00 PM
12D.1
A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Upper-Tropospheric Cold Lows and Tropical CycloneTrack and Intensity Changes over Western North Pacific
Na Wei, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Li and D. L. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM
12D.2
Elucidating the Character of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Trough Interactions in the Context of Intensity Change
Levi P. Cowan, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
12D.3
An Analysis of Multiple Steering Influences on the Track of Tropical Cyclone Joaquin (2015)
Philippe P. Papin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
12D.4
A Climatological Perspective on the Role of the “Phasing” of Tropical Cyclones and Midlatitude Flow Features during Extratropical Transition
Jacopo Riboldi, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland; and C. M. Grams and M. Riemer
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM
12D.5
A New Dynamic-based Metric to Explore the Time and Intensity of Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Ajay Raghavendra, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and S. M. Milrad
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (571.8 kB)

Handout (9.4 MB)

5:15 PM
12D.6
Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Extratropical Transition and Downstream Flow Effects
Konstantine Louis Pryles, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie
Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM
12D.7
The Impact of Moist Frontogenesis and Tropopause Undulation on the Intensity, Size and Structural Changes of Hurricane Sandy (2012)
Jung Hoon Shin, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
12D.8
An Analysis of the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Arthur (2014) from a JPSS Proving Ground Perspective
Michael J. Folmer, CICS, College Park, MD; and E. B. Berndt, J. B. Halverson, and J. P. Dunion
Recorded Presentation

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016


AMS Banquet
Location: Ocean Garden (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Thursday, 21 April 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 13A
HFIP III
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
8:00 AM
13A.1
Evaluating the Predictability of TC Intensity Using the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System
Ryan D. Torn, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
13A.2
Examination of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Guidance with Multiple Dynamical Model Inputs
Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and J. Kaplan
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
13A.3
Evaluation of a New Ensemble Mean Weighting Technique for the 2015 GFDL Hurricane Ensemble Forecast System
Matthew J. Morin, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. P. Marchok and M. A. Bender
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
13A.4
Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensification with an Analog Ensemble
Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Alessandrini, C. M. Rozoff, and W. E. Lewis
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
13A.5
Incorporating Global Model Uncertainty Information into the Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Model
Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
13A.6
Improving High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Prediction using a GSI-based, Cycled, Dual Resolution Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for HWRF: system description and experiment results
Xu Lu, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (711.5 kB)

9:30 AM
13A.7
Towards Improving Hurricane Vortex Initialization Through Assimilation of Radar and All-sky Satellite Observations
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
13A.8
Direct Assimilation of Satellite-Derived AMVs into HWRF: First Results
William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, V. Tallapragada, and J. M. Daniels
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 13B
Tropical Cyclone Rainbands and Precipitation I
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University
8:00 AM
13B.1
Formation of tropical cyclone spiral rainbands in idealized numerical simulations
Diamilet Perez-Betancourt, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

8:15 AM
13B.2
A Numerical Study of Spiral Rainbands in Typhoon Chanchu (2006)
Yongqing Wang, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, KLME, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; and M. Cai, W. Hogsett, and X. Ge
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
13B.3
Outer Rainband Formation in a Sheared Tropical Cyclone
Qingqing Li, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
13B.4
Mobile Radar Observations of Vortex Rossby Waves in Three Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
A. Addison Alford, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff and D. P. Betten
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
13B.5
Simulated and Observed Gravity Waves Radiating from Tropical Cyclones and Prospects for Remote Monitoring
David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang

9:15 AM
13B.6
Precipitation Microphysics Characteristics of a Typhoon Matmo (2014) Rainband after Landfall over Eastern China based on Polarimetric Radar Observations
Mingjun Wang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and K. Zhao and M. Xue
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
13B.7
Validation of Numerical Hurricane Simulation Microphysical Fingerprints using Polarimetric Radar
Bonnie R. Brown, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. M. Bell and A. Frambach
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
13B.8
Using Shape Metrics to Compare Observed and Simulated Reflectivity During the Landfall of Hurricane Isabel (2003)
Corene J. Matyas, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and S. E. Zick and J. Tang
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (2.9 MB)

Recording files available
Session 13C
Tropical Waves
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC
8:00 AM
13C.1
Identifying convectively coupled equatorial waves using theoretical wave eigenvectors
H. Reed Ogrosky, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and S. N. Stechmann
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
13C.2
Extraction and classification of convectively coupled convective waves through eigendecomposition of Koopman operators
Joanna Maja Slawinska, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and D. Giannakis

8:30 AM
13C.3
Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves: From Linear Theory to Global Models
Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and M. J. Herman, D. Raymond, P. Bechtold, and G. Kiladis
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
13C.4
Dependence of Convectively Coupled Gravity Waves on Convective Representation
I-Kuan Hu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. Song and B. E. Mapes
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
13C.5
Damping of Gravity Waves by Radiation to the Stratosphere
Jacob P. Edman, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps
Recorded Presentation

13C.6
Investigating the convectively coupled MRG and EIG n=0 continuum

9:30 AM
13C.7
Boreal summer synoptic-scale waves over the western North Pacific in multi-model simulations
Haikun Zhao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and X. Jiang and L. Wu
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
13C.8
Decoupling of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves: Super Cloud Clusters versus Moist Kelvin Waves
Joaquin E. Blanco, University of Miami / RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (696.8 kB)

Handout (4.4 MB)

Recording files available
Session 13D
TC Genesis III
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Alan Brammer, SUNY
8:00 AM
13D.1
Development and Nondevelopment of Binary Mesoscale Vortices into Tropical Cyclones in Idealized Numerical Experiments
David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
13D.2
A Coupled Moist Entropy and Angular Momentum Framework for Tropical Cyclogenesis Investigations
Brian Tang, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
13D.3
A Study on the Influences of Low-Frequency Vorticity on Tropical Cyclone Formation Based on Systematic Model Simulations
C-S. Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. H. Hsieh, C. H. Sui, and H. F. Teng
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
13D.4
Spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in rotating radiative-convective equilibrium simulations
Allison A. Wing, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and S. J. Camargo and A. H. Sobel
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
13D.5
Modification of MJO and Genesis of Supercyclone Pam in March 2015 by the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
Masuo Nakano, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and H. Kubota, T. Miyakawa, T. Nasuno, and M. Satoh

13D.6
Roles of Tropical Waves in the Genesis of Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

13D.7
Reinvigoration of moist convection in the early development of Super Typhoon Megi (2010)

9:45 AM
13D.8
Deepening Process of an Incipient Vortex of Tropical Cyclone Simulated in a Global Nonhydrostatic Model
Tomoe Nasuno, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and H. Yamada, M. Nakano, H. Kubota, M. Sawada, and R. Yoshida

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 21 April 2016


Morning Break
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 14A
HFIP IV
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Daniel Melendez, NOAA/NWS; Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
10:30 AM
14A.1
A Multi-Scale Modeling System for Improved Hurricane Prediction
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, T. Quirino, F. Marks, and R. Atlas
Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM
14A.2
Performance of Basin-scale HWRF within the Marsupial Paradigm
Mark A. Boothe, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
14A.3
Investigating Major Hurricane Joaquin Track Forecasts using the Basin-Scale HWRF
Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr.
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
14A.4
A modified vertical diffusion scheme and its impacts on numerical prediction of landfalling hurricanes with HWRF
Feimin Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT ; and Z. Pu
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
14A.5
The Importance of Accurately Representing the Surface Momentum Flux Driving Upper Ocean Currents for Coupled Hurricane Prediction
G. R. Halliwell Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, J. Dong, and H. S. Kim
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
14A.6
Ocean Model Impact Study for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting: An HFIP Initiative
Hyun-Sook Kim, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., V. Tallapragada, P. G. Black, S. Chen, J. J. Cione, I. Ginis, B. Liu, L. Miller, S. Jayne, E. R. Sanabia, L. K. Shay, E. W. Uhlhorn, and L. Zhu
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
14A.7
Tropical cyclone forecast verification: Some new ideas
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, S. Bao, L. R. Bernardet, and K. M. Newman
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 14B
Tropical Cyclone Rainbands and Precipitation II
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ming-Jen Yang, National Taiwan Univ.
10:30 AM
14B.1
Evolving Synoptic-Scale Precipitation Patterns in U.S. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Stephanie E. Zick, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (616.6 kB)

10:45 AM
14B.2
Ensemble Variability in Rainfall Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)
Molly B. Smith, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn, K. L. Corbosiero, and P. Pegion
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
14B.3
The Possible Role of Land Surface in the Rapid Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones
Saiprasanth Bhalachandran, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, India; and S. Subramanian, R. Nadimpalli, S. Gopalakrishnan, K. K. Osuri, F. D. Marks Jr., U. C. Mohanty, and D. Niyogi
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
14B.4
Impact of improved initial land surface conditions on HWRF simulations and HWRF coupled streamflow routing model
Subashini Subramanian, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and Y. Xia, Y. Wu, M. B. Ek, V. Tallapragada, and D. Niyogi
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
14B.5
Extreme Floods and their Relationship with Tropical Cyclones in Puerto Rico
Jose J. Hernandez Ayala, University of Florida, Gainesvillle, FL
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
14B.6
Tropical Storm Erika and the Commonwealth of Dominica
Alison D. Nugent, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
14B.7
Factors Influencing Orographic Precipitation for Uniform Flow over an Idealized Mountain: Variations in Basic Wind Speed and CAPE
Gökhan Sever, ANL, Argonne, IL; and Y. L. Lin
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 14C
MJO and Low Frequency Convection
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
10:30 AM
14C.1
Modeling the MJO in a cloud-resolving model with parameterized large-scale dynamics: vertical structure, radiation, and horizontal advection of dry air
Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and J. Nie

10:45 AM
14C.2
Convective interactions with the large-scale environment: Differences and similarities between the MJO and the Kelvin wave
Fiaz Ahmed, Texas A&M University, Bryan, TX; and C. Schumacher
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
14C.3
Balanced Dynamics in the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Sharon Sessions, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. Sentic, Z. Fuchs, and D. Raymond
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
14C.4
Role of Circumnavigating signal and Mesoscale Waves in the Initiation and Propagation of the October DYNAMO MJO event in a cloud-permitting model
Sourav Taraphdar, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and S. Wang
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
14C.5
Time Scales of the Shallow-to-Deep Convective Transition at MJO Initiation
Weixin Xu, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
14C.6
Thermodynamic Modes of Variability over the Maritime Continent
Jennifer Bukowski, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
14C.7
The Impact of Solar on the Convection dipole over the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean
Ziniu Xiao, Institute of Atmospheric Physics/CAS Beijing China, beijing, China
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.6 MB)

Recording files available
Session 14D
TC Genesis IV
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Daniel J. Halperin, SUNY
10:30 AM
14D.1
Regional Variations in the Rate Tropical Depressions Become Tropical Cyclones
Kevin J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and H. Ye and R. A. Dare
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.9 MB)

10:45 AM
14D.2
Validation of Operational pre/potential Tropical Cyclones (pTCs) Using Model Diagnostics
Michael Natoli, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Fiorino
Recorded Presentation

14D.3
Evaluation of Track Forecast Guidance from Global Models for Pre-genesis Disturbances

11:15 AM
14D.4
Systematic Characterization of Cyclogenesis in High Resolution Climate Model Simulations
Yunjie Liu, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; and K. Kashinath, T. A. O'Brien, and M. Prabhat
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
14D.5
Lagrangian boundaries offer a frame-independent view of vortex closure and an exact measurement of transport
Blake Rutherford, NWRA, Redmond, WA
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
14D.6
Why did the storm Ex-Gaston (2010) fail to redevelop during the PREDICT experiment?
Thomas M. Freismuth, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and B. Rutherford, M. A. Boothe, and M. T. Montgomery
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
14D.7
Tropical low formation and over land and sea as seen in the ECMWF analyses
Gerard Kilroy, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith, M. T. Montgomery, S. Müller, S. Tang, B. Lynch, and C. Earl-Spurr
Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016


Lunch

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 15A
Tropical Cyclone Structure III: Surface Wind Field Structure
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide
1:30 PM
15A.1
20+ Years of HWind: Where it Began and Where it's Going
Mark Powell, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
15A.2
Development of Global Statistical-Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii and MSLP Guidance
John Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and G. Chirokova, C. Sampson, and M. DeMaria
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
15A.3
A Statistical Prediction Scheme for Integrated Kinetic Energy of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Vasu Misra, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. Kozar
Recorded Presentation

15A.4
Impact of ocean warming on the tropical cyclone size and destructive potential

2:30 PM
15A.5
Size Matters: Assessing the Predictive Skill of TC Size Forecasts with a new Hurricane Wind Climatology
Falko Judt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
15A.6
Hurricane Cost is Largely Controlled by the Vertical Wind Shear
Shuai Wang, Imperial College London, LONDON, United Kingdom; and R. Toumi
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (466.0 kB)

3:00 PM
15A.7
Analysis of Environments Associated with TC Size and Structure Changes in the North Atlantic Basin
Diana R. Stovern, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
15A.8
The tropical cyclone wind field and its variability: perspective from the outside in
Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and N. Lin and K. Emanuel
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 15B
Ed Zipser Session: Celebrating 50+ Years In The Field
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC
CoChair: Jonathan Zawislak, NOAA
1:30 PM
15B.1
Legacy of Precipitation Feature Database from Satellite Passive Microwave radiometer and precipitation radar Observations
Chuntao Liu, Texas A&M, Corpus Christi, TX; and D. J. Cecil and S. W. Nesbitt
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
15B.2
From the Mesoscale to the Global Scale: Ed Zipser's Intuition and Its Importance to Tropical Meteorology and Climate
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and F. Ahmed and A. Funk
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
15B.3
What Has Been Inspired by Onions and Diamonds in Soundings? - A review
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kerns
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
15B.4
Entrainment, Mixing and Latent Heating in Tropical Deep Convection
Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. McGee and C. Schumacher
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
15B.5
An Overview of Ed Zipser's Latent Impact on Cloud Modeling Developments at NASA
Karen I. Mohr, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
15B.6
The Importance of Shallow and Moderate Precipitation in the Upshear Quadrants to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification as Derived from 14 Years of TRMM Data
Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and C. Tao
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
15B.7
A Global Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Lightning
Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. Xu and W. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
15B.8
From The Line Islands Experiment To Normal Mode Rossby-Haurwitz Waves
Roland A. Madden, NCAR Emeritus, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (846.2 kB)

Recording files available
Session 15C
Climate Change
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kerry Emanuel, MIT
1:30 PM
15C.1
Change in Ocean Subsurface Environment to Suppress Tropical Cyclone Intensification under Global Warming
Ping Huang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and I. I. Lin, C. Chou, and R. H. Huang
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.3 MB)

1:45 PM
15C.2
Future Changes in Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Wave Climatology
James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Ge, C. L. Bruyere, G. J. Holland, and J. Pappas
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
15C.3
Understanding the Response of the Seasonal Cycle of Temperature and Precipitation to Global Warming
Martin S. Singh, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and M. P. Byrne, J. G. Dwyer, and Z. Kuang
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
15C.4
The future of the low-level jets in northern South America and the Caribbean
Paola A. Arias, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia; and J. P. Sierra and S. C. Vieira
Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.5 MB)

2:30 PM
15C.5
The Response of Land-falling Tropical Cyclone Characteristics to Projected Climate Change in Northeast Australia
Chelsea. L. Parker, Brown University, Providence, RI; and A. H. Lynch and C. Bruyere
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
15C.6
Past and Projected Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Exposure
James P. Kossin, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Madison, WI; and K. Emanuel and S. Camargo
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
15C.7
Tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using high-resolution CAM5
Kevin A. Reed, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. T. Bacmeister and M. F. Wehner
Recorded Presentation

15C.8
What cause the slow-down and speed-up of global warming trend?

Recording files available
Session 15D
Numerical Modeling III: Probabilistic/Initialization Methods and Evaluation
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric A. Hendricks, NRL
1:30 PM
15D.1
A study of ensemble extend-range TC track forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou and J. Peng
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
15D.3
Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecasting at the Met Office: Upgrades to the MOGREPS Model and TC Products, and an Evaluation of the Benefit of Multi-model Ensembles
Helen A. Titley, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Stretton
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (500.3 kB)

2:00 PM
15D.4
Prediction and predictability of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) revealed through convection-permitting real-time deterministic and ensemble forecasts
Yonghui Weng, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and C. Melhauser
Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.2 MB)

2:15 PM
15D.5
A multivariate Visualization for Uncertainties in Hurricane Model Ensemble
Keqin Wu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. Zhang, W. Wang, and V. Tallapragada
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
15D.6
A novel tropical cyclone dynamic initialization technique using high temporal and spatial density atmospheric motion vectors and airborne field campaign data
Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. M. Bell, R. L. Elsberry, C. S. Velden, and D. J. Cecil

2:45 PM
15D.7
Applications of a New Tropical Cyclone Initialization Scheme on Improving TC Intensity, Structure and Track Forecasts
Yi-leng Chen, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and C. Y. Chen and H. V. Nguyen
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
15D.8
Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust During Hurricane Helene (2006) Using an Adjoint
Daniel Holdaway, NASA, Greenbelt, MD
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016


Afternoon Break
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016


Formal Poster Viewing
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Poster Session
Aerosols
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
106
Saharan Air Layer Dust Loading: Effects on Convective Strength in Tropical Cloud Clusters
Randall J. Hergert, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and J. M. Collins, J. P. Dunion, and C. H. Paxton

107
Aerosol Dynamics and their Contribution to Hurricane Sandy
Andrew T. Fontenot, Lake Charles, LA; and H. EL-Askary
Manuscript (302.1 kB)

Handout (713.5 kB)

108
Ten-year Trends in African Dust Episodes and its Effects on the Bimodal Rainfall Patterns across the Northeast Caribbean
Odalys Martínez-Sánchez, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras Campus, San Juan, PR

109
Modeling the Effects of Dust-Radiative Forcing on the Movement of Hurricane Helene (2006)
Shu-Hua Chen, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and Y. C. Liu, T. Nathan, C. Davis, R. Torn, N. sowa, C. T. Cheng, and J. P. Chen

110
Indirect Effect of African Dust Particles on Cloud Microphysical and Chemical Properties in a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest in the Caribbean
Elvis Torres-Delgado, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR

111
Chemical and Molecular Characterization of Aerosols in the Caribbean During African Dust Events: Focusing on Fungal Content
Gilmarie Santos-Figueroa, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR; and B. Bolaños-Rosero and O. L. Mayol-Bracero

112
A Study of Black Carbon Concentrations over Puerto Rico
Aranxa M. Martínez Cortés, University of Puerto Rico-Río Piedras, San Juan, PR


Poster Session
Climate
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
113
Impact of Central American Gap-Winds on Intrabasin Variability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO
Dan Fu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. Chang and C. M. Patricola

114
Improved Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Responses to ENSO in the Western North Pacific in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model
Wei Zhang, Princeton AOS/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. Vecchi, H. Murakami, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, A. Rosati, S. Underwood, W. Anderson, L. Harris, R. Gudgel, S. J. Lin, G. Villarini, and J. H. Chen

115
Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Regional Hadley Circulation over the Northeastern Pacific
Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

116
How well do Global Climate Models detect tropical cyclones considering cyclone phase?
Sinil Yang, Pukyung National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. H. Oh
Manuscript (104.3 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

117
Tropical precipitation changes in response to thermodynamic forcing
Ji-Jen Sun, Taipei, Taiwan

118
The Role of Atlantic Versus Pacific Variability on Caribbean Drought
Elinor Martin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

119
IBTrACS: Status and planned improvements
Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and H. J. Diamond, J. P. Kossin, C. J. Schreck III, S. Applequist, and M. C. Kruk

120
Thermodynamic Climate Change and its Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

121
Analysis of hurricane variability in downscaled tropical cyclone simulations

123
The Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to Atmospheric Temperature Perturbations
Timothy M. Merlis, McGill Univ., Montreal, Canada; and L. L. Davis

Multidecadal-scale Adjustment of the Ocean Mixed Layer Heat Budget of the Tropical and Subtropical Oceans

124
The climate sensitivity with uniform increased SST
Ping-Gin Chiu, Acadmica Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu and C. Y. Tu

Handout (3.4 MB)


Poster Session
Monsoons
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
126
Spectral-trend estimation using incomplete data: application to Indian monsoon depressions
Naftali Y. Cohen, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and W. R. Boos, M. Gehne, and G. N. Kiladis

127
An Evaluation of the 2015 “Belg” Rains in Ethiopia
Steven J. Fuhrman, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD

Handout (1.5 MB)

128
Comparative assessment of the roles of diabatic processes in the Indian Monsoon System
Samson Hagos, PNNL/DOE, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung, M. Ashfaq, J. Lu, and W. K. M. Lau

129
Implementation of the Stochastic Multicloud Model in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2)
Bidyut B. Goswami, New York Univ., Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and R. Phani, B. Khouider, P. Mukhopadhyay, and A. J. Majda

130
Mechanisms of Delayed Monsoon Onset with Warming
Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and T. M. Merlis and S. Pascale

131
On the Structure and Dynamics of Indian Monsoon Depressions
Kieran M. R. Hunt, Univeristy of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

132
Tracking of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in Climate model Simulations
Praveen Veluthedathekuzhiyil, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and S. Sukumaran and A. Ravindran

133
Tropical and Extratropical Controls of Gulf of California Surges and Summertime Precipitation over the Southwestern U.S
Salvatore Pascale, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Bordoni


Poster Session
Numerical Modeling
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
134
The Upgrade of GRAPES_TYM in 2015 and Its Performance and Problems
Suhong Ma, NWPD/NMC/Beijing, Beijing, China

Handout (5.6 MB)

135
The Impact of Assimilating Enhanced AMVS, Dropsonding Observations, and HIRAD Data on Analyses and Forecasts of Hurricanes Edouard and Gonzalo (2014)
Shixuan Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu, C. S. Velden, and D. J. Cecil

136
Towards Improved Intensity Prediction: An Overview of Recent COAMPS-TC Advancements
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, J. R. Moskaitis, S. Chen, E. A. Hendricks, H. Jin, Y. Jin, P. A. Reinecke, and S. Wang

137
A New High-Resolution Operational NWP system for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in SW Indian Ocean
Olivier Bousquet, Météo-France / LACy, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion; and D. Barbary, S. Bielli, G. Faure, M. D. Leroux, and S. Langlade

138
Telescopic Nesting and its Impact on Hurricane Forecasts

139
Effects of Ice Clouds on Barotropic and Baroclinic Processes during TOGA COARE
Guoqing Zhai, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; and X. Li

Handout (693.4 kB)

140
Validation of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System Forced by Gridded Tropical Cyclone Winds
Alex Gibbs, NOAA, Honolulu, HI

141
New Methods of Evaluating NWP Tropical Cyclone Depiction Using the ARCHER Algorithm
Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, S. Hristova-Veleva, and T. P. Shen

142
Model evaluation of HWRF simulations for Hurricane Edouard (2014)
Lin Zhu, IMSG NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. S. Kim, S. Abarca, and V. Tallapragada

143
Validation of of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System Forced by Gridded Tropical Cyclone Winds
Alex Gibbs, NOAA, Honolulu, HI; and P. Santos, A. Vanderwesthuysen, and R. Padilla

144
FV3 and the Next Generation Global Prediction System
Shannon L. Rees, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Handout (2.2 MB)

145
Orographic Effects on Track Deflection of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone
Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and S. H. Chen and L. Liu

146
Examination of adaptive and static mesh refinement for idealized tropical cyclone simulations in a global shallow water model
Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. Kopera and F. X. Giraldo

Factors Important to Automated Vortex Tracking in Numerical Model Output


Poster Session
Observing Systems and Strategies
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
147
On the use of CYGNSS to observe convectively driven near-surface winds in tropical precipitation systems
Timothy J. Lang, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and T. Castillo, K. Hoover, J. Mecikalski, X. Li, and T. Chronis

Handout (3.6 MB)

148
Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Calibration Methodology
Derek P., Starkenburg, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Ruf

149
The development of a U.S. geostationary microwave sounder
Bjorn Lambrigtsen, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

Handout (18.7 MB)

150
Further Studies of Observational Undersampling in Flight-level and SFMR Observations
Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML, University of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan and E. W. Uhlhorn

Handout (3.2 MB)


Poster Session
Seasonal Prediction and Interannual Variability
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
151
Interannual and intraseasonal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the eastern North Pacific
Haikun Zhao, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and G. B. Raga

152
2015 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season
Jennifer M. Collins, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and C. Mehta, D. Roache, and C. H. Paxton

153
Predictability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in the GFDL HiRAM Model
Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. Zhang, M. S. Peng, J. H. Chen, and S. J. Lin

154
Relating Mid-Level Meridional Water Vapor Transport by Stationary Eddies to Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
Travis J. Elless, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. N. Stevenson, B. Tang, and R. D. Torn

155
The Impacts of Column Water Vapor Variability on Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity
Isaac E. Hankes, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and A. Marinaro

Handout (1.2 MB)

156
Mechanisms Responsible for Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the South Indian Ocean
Kevin K. W. Cheung, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia

157
Dominant Role of Subtropical Pacific Warming on the Extreme 2015 Central Pacific Hurricane Season
Hiroyuki Murakami, Princeton AOS/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, S. Underwood, R. Gudgel, X. Yang, L. Jia, F. Zeng, K. Paffendorf, and W. Zhang


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclone Genesis
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
158
Temporal characteristics of Dvorak analyses for pre-genesis and non-developing disturbances
Joshua Cossuth, NRL, Monterey, CA

159
How does monsoon trough intraseasonal oscillation affect tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific?

160
The Distribution and Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature at Tropical Cyclone Genesis across Ocean Basins
Cécile Defforge, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and T. M. Merlis
Manuscript (106.9 kB)

Handout (149.7 kB)

161
The Development and Breakdown of a Central American Gyre: A Precursor to Hurricane Patricia
Andrew S. Levine, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL; and P. Papin and L. F. Bosart

162
The Genesis of Tropical Storm Matthew (2010) as Observed during the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Field Experiment
Louis L. Lussier III, NCAR, Broomfield, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, T. M. Freismuth, and M. A. Boothe

163
Sumatra Lee Vortices and Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Indian Ocean
Caitlin M. Fine, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson, P. E. Ciesielski, and R. K. Taft

164
Towards Development of a Climate Theory of Tropical Cyclone Genesis
S. Sharmila, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh

Handout (1.6 MB)

165
Examining Trends in Satellite-Detected Overshooting Tops as a Potential Predictor of Tropical Cyclone Genesis
Sarah M. Griffin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. P. Dunion, and A. B. Schumacher

166
The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI)
Jason Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Kaplan, A. B. Schumacher, J. Cossuth, K. D. Musgrave, and P. Leighton

167
An Examination of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Composites of NCEP GFS Deterministic Model Analyses for the Period of 2011-2015
Andrew B. Penny, Systems Research Group / National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi, T. B. Kimberlain, and M. J. Brennan

168
High Resolution Modeling of Lower Tropospheric Subsidence Warming in MCSs and its Role in Tropical Cyclogenesis
Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

169
Idealized Simulations of Monsoon Depressions


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclone Intensity II
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Precipitation Properties Observed during Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

170
Trends in Lifetime Maximum Intensity of North American Tropical Cyclones

171
Diagnosing large-scale tropical cyclone model moisture and exploring impacts on track and intensity
Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

172
The contribution of structure and evolution of potential vorticity tower to the intensity change of Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Wei Zhong, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Liu and H. Lu
Manuscript (69.6 kB)

173
The Impact of Lightning on Intensity Forecasts Using the HWRF model: Idealized Tropical Cyclone
Keren Rosado, GSD, Washington, DC; and V. Tallapragada, G. S. Jenkins, and L. Zhu
Manuscript (406.3 kB)

174
An Expanded Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity Framework
Alex Kowaleski, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

175
Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry

176
Determining Uncertainty in Historical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analyses
Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and M. C. Kruk, K. R. Knapp, C. J. Schreck III, J. P. Kossin, and P. W. Thorne

Handout (598.6 kB)

Analysis of the sudden northward track change and rapid weakening of Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015)


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclone Structure II
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
177
Structure and intensity changes in Hurricanes Ophelia and Katrina (2005): Coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling and RAINEX observations
Manuscript (3.1 MB)

178
Comparing Rainfall of Landfall Tropical Cyclones on Spatial Mixed and Fractional Mixed Landuse Using Natural Run Simulation
Jingyin Tang, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and Y. Wang and C. J. Matyas
Manuscript (1.2 MB)

179
Observed Atlantic Hurricane Boundary Layer Structural Asymmetries with Respect to Environmental Conditions
Kyle Ahern, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and R. E. Hart

180
Sensitivity of Environmental Predictors to Integrated Kinetic Energy Tendency in Atlantic Hurricanes
Michael E. Kozar, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and V. Misra

181
Investigating Size Changes of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic using the GEFS/R
Ethan K. Smith, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie and K. M. Wood

182
Sensitivity of hurricane intensity and structure to planetary boundary layer height in HWRF ensemble forecasts
Hua Chen, NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and J. A. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and Z. Zhang

183
Idealized Modeling of the Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Cyclones
Erika L. Navarro, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim


Poster Session
Tropical Cyclones
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
184
Typhoon Kinematic and Thermodynamic Boundary Layer Structure from Dropsonde Composites
Jie Ming, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and J. A. Zhang and R. F. Rogers

Handout (968.1 kB)

185
Naval Research Laboratory Tropical Cyclone Demonstration Web Page: Plans and Upgrades
Kim A. Richardson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Bankert and J. Cossuth

186
A Composite Analysis of the Environmental Memory of Tropical Cyclones
Benjamin A. Schenkel, University of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK; and R. E. Hart

Handout (8.0 MB)

187
Development of Real-Time Multi-Model Verification Website for Tropical Cyclones
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA

On the spatial patterns of intense tropical cyclones: A case study of Charleston, South Carolina (USA)

188
Moist static energy budget analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in climate models

189
Re-Analysis of the 1964 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Brenden M. Moses, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

190
Extended-Range Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by the ECMWF 32-Day Ensemble and its Reforecast Data for Water Resources Management
Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry

191
Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Motion and Surrounding Flow with Reference to the Maximum Sustained Wind and Longest Radius
Kazuaki Yasunaga, Univ. of Toyama, Toyama, Japan; and T. Miyajima
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (2.0 MB)

192
Effects of Landfall Location and Approach Angle of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone over a Long Mountain Range
Liping Liu, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and S. H. Chen

193
Tropical Storm Kyle (2002) and Cold-Air Damming: Their Interactions and Impacts on Heavy Rainfall in the Carolinas
José M. García-Rivera, I. M. Systems Group, Rockville, MD; and Y. L. Lin and Y. Rastigejev


Poster Session
Tropical Waves
Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
194
Using Composite Analysis and Cloud Type Switching to Describe the Interaction between African Easterly Waves and Convective Activities
Hilawe Semunegus, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and A. Mekonnen and C. J. Schreck III

195
Theoretical Framework for the Destabilization of African Easterly Waves by Saharan Mineral Dust Aerosols
Terry Nathan, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and D. Grogan and S. H. Chen

196
The relationship between the direction of the diurnal rainfall migration and the ambient wind over the Southern Sumatra Island
Atsushi Yanase, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and K. Yasunaga and H. Masunaga

Handout (1.9 MB)

5:45 PM-6:45 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 1
Panel Discussion: "TC: To be or not to be?"
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Moderator: Robert Hart, Florida State University
Panelists: Michael J. Brennan, NHC; Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT; David S Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New South Wales
5:45 PM
90 Second Overview #1 - Robert Hart
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
90 Second Overview #2 - Michael Brennan
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
90 Second Overview #3 - Brian Strahl
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
90 Second Overview #4 - Elizabeth Ritchie
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
90 Second Overview #5 - David Nolan
Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM
90 Second Overview #6 - Kerry Emanuel
Recorded Presentation

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 16
Ed Zipser Session: Celebrating 50+ Years In The Field
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Chuntao Liu, Texas A&M
CoChair: Sarah Bang, University of Utah
7:00 PM
Introduction and Remarks by Ed Zipser
E. J. Zipser, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

7:20 PM
16.1
Zipping Up
Michael Garstang, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
Recorded Presentation

7:40 PM
16.3
Updrafts in Deep Tropical Convection
Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
Recorded Presentation

8:00 PM
16.2
Ed Zipser’s Global Influence on the Direction of Meteorology
Robert A. Houze Jr., PNNL, Seattle, WA
Recorded Presentation

8:20 PM
Remote Contributions and Audience Participation
Recorded Presentation

Friday, 22 April 2016

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 22 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 17A
Tropical Cyclone Structure IV: Secondary Eyewall Formation/Eyewall Replacement Cycles
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
8:00 AM
17A.1
Mechanisms of Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones
Jiahua Guo, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
17A.2
Secondary Eyewall Formation in an Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulation – Further Examination of the Balanced and Unbalanced Dynamics
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. Wang and Y. Wang
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
17A.3
Diagnosis of Secondary Eyewall Formation Mechanisms in Hurricane Igor (2010)
Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

8:45 AM
17A.4
Secondary Eyewall Formation for Idealized and Real Tropical Cyclones in HWRF
Bryce Paul Tyner, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and P. Zhu
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
17A.5
Simulation of Eyewall Replacement Cycles for Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, D. L. Zhang, and J. D. Doyle

9:15 AM
17A.6
Dynamics and predictability of secondary eyewall formation in sheared tropical cyclones
Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and D. Tao, Y. Q. Sun, and J. D. Kepert
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
17A.7
The large outer eyewall of long-lived concentric eyewall tropical cyclones
Yi-Ting Yang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. C. Kuo, T. Y. Hsu, E. A. Hendricks, and M. S. Peng
Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.6 MB)

9:45 AM
17A.8
On the Coupling of Convective Updrafts Prior to Secondary Eyewall Formation in Hurricane Katrina (2005)
José M. García-Rivera, I. M. Systems Group, Rockville, MD; and Y. L. Lin
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM
17A.9
Doppler Radar Analysis of Triple Eyewalls in Typhoon Usagi
Kun Zhao, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Q. lin, W. Lee, Y. Q. Sun, and F. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

17A.10
Inner Core Radar Structures in Hurricane Patricia 2015

Recording files available
Session 17B
Intraseasonal Variability III
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA and JPL/Caltech
8:00 AM
17B.1
Seasonal Onset of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and its Relation to the Southeastern Indian Ocean Cooling
Ayako Seiki, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Nagura, T. Hasegawa, and K. Yoneyama

8:15 AM
17B.2
Destabilization of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Present and Future Climates
Brandon O. Wolding, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
17B.3
Western Hemisphere Extratropical Circulation and the Indian Ocean MJO
Paul E. Roundy, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
17B.4
Intra-seasonal Oscillation and Typhoon Activity during PALAU Intensive Observation around the Tropical Western Pacific
Ryuichi Shirooka, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and B. Geng, J. Suzuki, H. Kubota, M. Katsumata, T. Nasuno, T. Shinoda, and H. Uyeda
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
17B.5
Relative Feedbacks between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclones
Lawrence C. Gloeckler, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy
Recorded Presentation

17B.6
The Emerging and Terminating States of Madden-Julian Oscillation: Kinematics and Thermodynamics

9:30 AM
17B.7
Moistening processes in the observed and simulated MJOs during DYNAMO/CINDY
Kai-Chih Tseng, NTU, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Sui
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
17B.8
Effects of Moisture Feedback in Frictional Coupled Kelvin-Rossby Wave Model and Implication to Madden-Julian Oscillation
Fei Liu, NOAA/ESRL/NESII, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM
17B.9
Diagnosing moistening processes of the November DYNAMO MJO by Cloud Resolving Model Simulations
Emily M. Riley Dellaripa, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney and S. C. van den Heever
Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM
17B.10
ENSO Modulation of MJO Event Variability in Observations, GCMs, and the Skeleton Model
Justin P. Stachnik, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. E. Waliser, A. J. Majda, S. N. Stechmann, S. Thual, and H. R. Ogrosky
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 17C
Operations and Landfall I
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NWS/NHC
8:00 AM
17C.1
The Arbitrary Definition of the Current Atlantic Major Hurricane Landfall Drought
Robert E. Hart, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and D. R. Chavas and M. P. Guishard
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
17C.2
Global Tropical Cyclone Landfall Statistics
Zachary Shaw, Columbia University, New York, NY; and C. Y. Lee, A. H. Sobel, M. K. Tippett, and S. J. Camargo
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
17C.3
A Proposed Adjustment for the Advanced Dvorak Technique during Extratropical Transition
Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and T. L. Olander, C. S. Velden, and R. E. Hart
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
17C.4
Upgrades to the ARCHER TC Center-Fixing Scheme and Real-Time Applications
Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. Kossin, and D. C. Herndon
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
17C.5
Comparison of an Integrated Method of Tropical Cyclone Analysis using Microwave Imagery and Data with Current Methods of Analysis in the Western North Pacific
Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam
Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.1 MB)

9:15 AM
17C.6
Operational Forecasting at the Canadian Hurricane Center
Chris Fogarty, EC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

9:30 AM
17C.7
Storm Surge Predictability
Kate Fossell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, C. A. Davis, C. Snyder, and R. Morss
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
17C.8
Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty
John A. Troutman, California University of Pennsylvania, California, PA
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM
17C.9
Hurricane Storm Surge Risk Assessment for the Yucatan State Coastal Area
Wilmer Rey, National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Sisal, Yucatan, Mexico; and P. Salles, E. T. Mendoza, M. A. Trejo, K. Zhang, Y. C. Teng, C. L. Fritz, and J. R. Rhome
Recorded Presentation

17C.10
Application and Validation of a Coupled Storm Surge plus Waves Modeling System at the National Hurricane Center

Recording files available
Session 17D
Numerical Modeling IV: Operational Forecasts and Evaluation
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Falko Judt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
8:00 AM
17D.1
A Preliminary Study on the Application of High-frequency Cycling Updating Approaches to the GRAPES-TYM Model System
Xiaowei Tan, Numerical Weather Prediction Center of CMA, Beijing, Beijing, China

8:15 AM
17D.2
Evaluation of the NAVGEM analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones and comparison with GFS analyses and WRF high-resolution numerical simulations
Yafan Yu, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City; and Z. Pu and C. A. Reynolds

8:30 AM
17D.3
The Importance of Storm-storm Interactions in the Real-time Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr. and S. G. Gopalakrishnan
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
17D.4
Telescopic Nesting and Impact on Hurricane Forecast Skill
Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. Trahan, Y. C. Kwon, V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, Z. Janjic, Z. Zhang, and D. Jovic

9:00 AM
17D.5
Evaluation of Uniformly High-Resolution Hurricane Forecasts Using NMM-B
Javier Delgado, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. Gopalakrishnan, R. Atlas, T. Quirino, and S. W. Diaz
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
17D.6
The Capability of regional NMMB for Rapid Intensification Forecast: Insights from Hurricane Patricia
Weiguo Wang, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, S. Trahan, T. Black, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, M. Tong, J. Sippel, S. Abarca, D. Sheinin, H. S. Kim, K. Wu, and V. Tallapragada
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
17D.7
Effects of boundary layer vertical diffusion on forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensification
Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers, V. Tallapragada, and W. Wang
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
17D.8
An Analysis of Model Track Forecast Errors in Hurricane Joaquin (2015)
Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL; and A. B. Penny and S. J. Majumdar
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM
17D.9
Met Office Global Model tropical cyclone performance following a major model upgrade and new initialisation technique
Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (546.7 kB)

10:15 AM
17D.10
Convective-Scale Simulations of Tropical Cyclones with the Met Office Unified Model
Christopher Short, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and S. Webster, J. Heming, and J. Petch
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Friday, 22 April 2016


Morning Break
Location: Ponce Foyer (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

11:00 AM-1:30 PM: Friday, 22 April 2016

Recording files available
Session 18A
Tropical Cyclone Structure V: 3-D Structure
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Paul Reasor, NOAA
11:00 AM
18A.1
Tropical Cyclone Warm Core Structures as Observed by Recent High-Altitude Aircraft and Satellites
Derrick Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
18A.2
Evolution of the Vertical Temperature Structure in Tropical Cyclones Inferred from GPS Radio Occultation Measurements
Louis Rivoire, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. Birner
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

11:30 AM
18A.3
The Composited Tropical Cyclone Outflow Layer and the Balanced Vortex Response
Sarah Dunn Ditchek, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (640.2 kB)

11:45 AM
18A.4
Gradient Imbalance at the Outflow of Idealized Tropical Cyclone in a Three Layer Moist Neutral Model
Yair Cohen, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; and N. Harnik and E. Heifetz

12:00 PM
18A.5
Simulation of the Downshear Reformation of a Tropical Cyclone
Leon Nguyen, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari
Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM
18A.6
Relationship between eyewall slopes, inner-core structures, and intensities of TCs
Tomoki Ohno, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; and M. Satoh and Y. Yamada
Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM
18A.7
Eyewall reconstruction of Typhoon Fanapi (2010) after encountering the Taiwan terrain
Ming-Jen Yang, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. C. Wu and Y. C. Liou
Recorded Presentation

12:45 PM
18A.8
Applicability of Conservation Principles to Doubly-Periodic Hurricane Simulations
John Persing, NPS, Wellington, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and J. C. McWilliams
Recorded Presentation

1:00 PM
18A.9
On the relative contribution of inertia-gravity wave radiation to asymmetric instabilities in tropical cyclone-like vortices
Konstantinos Menelaou, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. A. Schecter and P. M. K. Yau

1:15 PM
18A.10
Constraints on Parametric Hurricane Wind Profiles
Israel Gonzalez III, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (316.0 kB)

Recording files available
Session 18B
Intraseasonal Variability IV
Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Cochairs: Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology; Samson Hagos, PNNL/DOE
11:00 AM
18B.1
Pollution in the Tropics: Multi-scale Variability in 30 Years of Ozone and Carbon Monoxide Observations across Mexico City
Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland; and G. B. Raga
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
18B.2
Extratropical Convective Precursors to Initiation of MJO Convection Over the Indian Ocean
Jennifer A. Gahtan, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (781.7 kB)

11:30 AM
18B.3
Evolution of Madden-Julian Oscillation in two types of El Niño
Jian Ling, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Beijing, China
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
18B.4
Moisture Mode Processes and MJO Predictability in Coupled NAVGEM/HYCOM Simulations
Matthew Janiga, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Ridout, M. Flatau, N. Barton, and C. Reynolds
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
18B.5
Dry Signals of the MJO
David Zermeno, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM
18B.6
The Role of Dry Dynamics in the MJO
Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM
18B.7
Relevance of Large-Scale Subsidence and Cumuliform Buoyancy to MJO Convective Onset
Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (931.1 kB)

12:45 PM
18B.8
Changes in the structure and propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with increasing CO2 in the NASA GISS general circulation model
Ángel F. Adames, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, A. H. Sobel, A. D. Del Genio, and J. Wu
Recorded Presentation

1:00 PM
18B.9
The Role of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling in Eastward Propagation of the MJO Convection
Ajda Savarin, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.9 MB)

1:15 PM
18B.10
Rain-formed and diurnal warming-formed near-surface ocean mixed layers: impacts on SST throughout the MJO
Elizabeth J. Thompson, APL/University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. A. Rutledge, J. N. Moum, and C. Fairall
Recorded Presentation

Recording files available
Session 18C
Operations and Landfall II
Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John A. Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS
11:00 AM
18C.1
Evaluation of an Experimental Potential Gale Force Wind Swath Using GPCE to Account For JTWC Forecast Confidence
Brian Strahl, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI
Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.3 MB)

11:15 AM
18C.2
Evaluation of Hurricane Wind Field Forecasts from Global Models Within the TIGGE Archive
Michael E. Kozar, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and M. Powell
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
18C.3
Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Errors in the 2015 NCEP Global Ensemble Model
Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA
Recorded Presentation

18C.4
Insights into Hurricane Track and Intensity Verification Results through Temporally Homogeneous Samples

12:00 PM
18C.5
Investigating the Variability in Skill of Statistical RI Prediction Models
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and C. M. Peirano
Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM
18C.6
Tropical cyclone statistical rainfall climatology and experimental guidance derived from NCEP Stage IV data
Tristan J. Hall, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg and R. Hart
Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM
18C.7
Environmental Interactions during a Sudden Extreme Rain Event, following the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Bilis(2006)
Difei Deng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and N. E. Davidson, K. J. Tory, M. C. N. Hankinson, and S. Gao
Recorded Presentation

12:45 PM
18C.8
Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Genesis Pathways on Tropical Cyclone Predictability in the GEFS Reforecasts Version-2
Weiwei Li, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, M. S. Peng, and R. McTaggart-Cowan

1:00 PM
18C.9
Objective Partitioning of 5-day Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones
Jenni L. Evans, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. Kowaleski
Recorded Presentation

1:15 PM
18C.10
Sensitivity Study of Tropical Cyclone Initial Perturbations for GEFS
Xiaqiong Zhou, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Fu and Y. Zhu

Recording files available
Session 18D
Numerical Modeling V: Operational Forecasts and Evaluation
Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD
11:00 AM
18D.1
Evaluating Medium-Range Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych
Recorded Presentation

Handout (9.1 MB)

11:15 AM
18D.2
COAMPS® Monthly Prediction of the MJO and Tropical Cyclone 05 (2011)
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and J. Doyle
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
18D.3
Assessment of CMIP5 and post-CMIP5 Representation of Tropical Cyclones in Forced Atmosphere Simulations - Understanding Dynamical Constraints
Malcolm J. Roberts, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. L. Vidale, J. Camp, C. Kodama, R. Roehrig, M. Wehner, Y. Yamada, and M. Zhao
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
18D.4
Simulation and prediction of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR coupled climate model
Hiroyuki Murakami, Princeton AOS/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, S. Underwood, W. Anderson, J. H. Chen, R. Gudgel, L. Harris, S. J. Lin, and F. Zeng
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM
18D.5
Evaluation of Hurricane Forecast Skills of NCEP GFS Retrospective Experiments for the FY2016 Implementation
Fanglin Yang, NOAA, College Park, MD
Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.9 MB)

12:15 PM
18D.6
Impact of Parameterized Physical Processes on Simulated Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in Community Atmosphere Model
Fei He, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt
Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM
18D.7
Hybrid Mass Flux Cumulus Scheme (HYMACS) as a Step to Unified Cumulus Parameterization and Its Application to Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction
Hing Ong, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. C. Kuo
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (493.1 kB)

12:45 PM
18D.8
A Numerical Study on the Typhoon Cyclonic Deflection Tracks near the Terrain
Li-Huan Hsu, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. H. Su, H. C. Kuo, and R. G. Fovell
Recorded Presentation

1:00 PM
18D.9
The Impact of Taiwan Terrain on Tropical Cyclone Track
Kuan-Chieh Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu
Recorded Presentation

18D.10
Feedback effect of tropical cyclone on the western Pacific Subtropical high

1:30 PM-1:45 PM: Friday, 22 April 2016


Announcement of Max Eaton Award
Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
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