32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

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Sunday, 17 April 2016

2:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 17 April 2016

Registration

Location: Horizonte room (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 17 April 2016

Sunday Evening Welcome Reception and Opening Session

Location: Ponce Foyer (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Plenary Session 1

Opening Session

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Patrick Harr, Jupiter Technologies; Christopher Velden, CIMSS

5:00 PM

Welcome To San Juan Entertainment and Reception

Recorded Presentation

6:00 PM

Recent Events in Review

Recorded Presentation

6:15 PM

PL1.1

Hurricane PATRICIA in Jalisco, Mexico

Josh Morgerman, iCyclone.com, West Hollywood, CA

Recorded Presentation

6:30 PM

PL1.2

National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam and the University of Guam Water and Environmental Research Institute Typhoon Soudelor Wind Assessment for Saipan

Mark A. Lander, University of Guam (WERI), Mangilao, Guam, Guam; and C. Guard

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.9 MB)

6:45 PM

PL1.3

The Tropical-Storms List

William Thorson, WeatherFlow, Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

Handout (508.6 kB)

Monday, 18 April 2016

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Coffee Break

Location: Ponce Foyer (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Session 1A

Convection I

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Larissa E. Back, Univ. of Wisconsin

8:30 AM

1A.1

The natural horizontal scale of convective self-aggregation

Da Yang, Univ. of California, Davis, CA

8:45 AM

1A.2

Mechanisms for convective aggregation in idealized and realistic simulations

Christopher E. Holloway, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and S. J. Woolnough

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1A.3

Convective Cold Pools: Properties and Sea-Surface Temperature Dependence

Aryeh J. Drager, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. C. van den Heever

9:15 AM

1A.4

Investigating Cold Pool Dynamics with a Lagrangian Perspective

Giuseppe Torri, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1A.5

Understanding convective organization in a changing climate

Stipo Sentic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. L. Sessions

Recorded Presentation

1A.6

Impacts of Shallow Convection on the Simulation of the Tropical Precipitation Diurnal Cycle

Session 1B

African Weather and Climate I

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher Thorncroft, SUNY, University at Albany

1B.1

Large scale Environment of Extreme Precipitation Events over West Africa

8:45 AM

1B.2

How El-Nino affects Ethiopian summer rainfall

Stephanie Gleixner, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; and N. Keenlyside and E. Viste

9:00 AM

1B.3

Saharan Dust and the Nonlinear Evolution of the African Easterly Jet–African Easterly Wave System

Dustin Grogan, SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. Nathan and S. H. Chen

9:15 AM

1B.4

Influence of Mesoscale Convective Systems on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over Central Sub-Saharan Northern Africa

Edward Vizy, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook, W. Liu, and X. Sun

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1B.5

Three-Dimensional Structure of African Easterly Waves based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions

Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

1B.6

Clarifying the role of hydrodynamic instability in the evolution of african easterly waves

Session 1C

HS3 I

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jason Sippel, EMC

8:30 AM

1C.1

Observations of the structure and evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during intensity change: Relationship between the thermodynamic structure and precipitation

Jonathan Zawislak, NOAA, Miami, FL; and G. R. Alvey III, R. F. Rogers, J. A. Zhang, E. J. Zipser, and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1C.2

Observations of the structure and evolution of Hurricane Edouard (2014) during intensity change: Kinematic structure and the distribution of deep convection

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang, J. Zawislak, G. R. Alvey III, E. J. Zipser, and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1C.3

Edouard's (2014) Precipitation Symmetry – An investigation using WRF-ARW

George R. Alvey III, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1C.4

Convection-permitting Ensemble Forecasts of the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014): Predictability, Dynamics and Thermodynamic Structure

Erin B. Munsell, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (461.0 kB)

9:30 AM

1C.5

The impacts of Saharan dust on cloud microphysical and radiative processes in Hurricane Nadine (2012) during HS3

Jainn J. Shi, NASA/GSFC, Morgan State University/GESTAR, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun, W. K. Tao, Z. Tao, T. Matsui, and C. Peters-Lidard

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1C.6

The impact of Saharan dust on the intensity of Hurricane Nadine (2012) during HS3

Scott A. Braun, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and J. J. Shi and J. Sippel

Recorded Presentation

Session 1D

TC Genesis I

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

8:30 AM

1D.1

Cloud Evolution during Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation as Revealed by TRMM PR

Cody L. Fritz, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, S. W. Nesbitt, and T. J. Dunkerton

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1D.2

A satellite analysis of mid-tropopsheric humidity and its impact on tropical cyclone genesis and intensification

Brian J. Soden, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Yeomans, E. S. Chung, and J. Cossuth

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1D.3

Convective Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Formation – Revisiting Zehr (1992)

Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1D.4

Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis in a Lagrangian Framework

Carl J. Schreck III,

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.6 MB)

9:30 AM

1D.5

Evolution of Precipitation in Easterly Wave Critical Layers during Tropical Cylogenesis as Observed in TRMM Data

Louis L. Lussier III, NCAR, Broomfield, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, T. J. Dunkerton, and Z. Wang

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1D.6

On the dynamics of the formation of the Kelvin cat's eye in tropical cyclogenesis

Ali Asaadi, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and G. Brunet and P. M. K. Yau

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Morning Break

Location: Ponce Foyer (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Session 2A

Convection II

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria

10:30 AM

2A.1

Entrainment and Dilution in Tropical Deep Convection

Walter Hannah, North Carolina State Univesity, Raleigh, NC; and E. D. Maloney

Recorded Presentation

2A.2

The Fundamental Global Cooling Influence of Enhanced Cumulonimbus (Cb) Convection

10:45 AM

2A.2A

Instabilities of Radiative Convective Equilibrium with an Interactive Surface

Tom Beucler, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

11:00 AM

2A.3

Exploring the Tropical Land-Ocean Convective Intensity Difference through Surface Bowen Ratio Variations and High Percentiles of the CAPE Distribution

Zachary R. Hansen, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and L. E. Back

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.2 MB)

11:15 AM

2A.4

Dependence of entrainment on vertical velocity and distance to cloud edge

Yang Tian, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2A.5

The Shape of CAPE: Undilute Parcel Buoyancy in the Tropics

Jacob T. Seeley, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2A.6

Analytical models for tropical CAPE

David M. Romps, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA

12:00 PM

2A.7

Effective Buoyancy, at the Surface and Aloft

Nadir Jeevanjee, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (419.4 kB)

Session 2B

African Weather and Climate II

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Edward K. Vizy, Univ. of Texas

10:30 AM

2B.1

Diabatic Rossby Waves as a Model for Convectively Coupled African Easterly Waves

James O. H. Russell, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and A. Aiyyer

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (774.2 kB)

10:45 AM

2B.2

Investigating The Origin of African Easterly Waves

Joshua Dylan White, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2B.3

About the influence of the African Easterly Waves in northern South America

Sara C. Vieira, Univ. de Antioquia, Medellin, Colombia; and S. Giraldo and P. A. Arias

Handout (8.2 MB)

11:15 AM

2B.4

On the Influence of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on African Easterly waves

Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY, University at Albany, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2B.5

Representation of African Easterly Waves in CMIP5 Models

Elinor Martin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. Thorncroft

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2B.6

Assessing the Predictability of African Easterly Waves in ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts

Travis J. Elless, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

Session 2C

HS3 II

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Scott A. Braun, NASA

10:30 AM

2C.1

Impact of Environmental Moisture for TC Genesis from AEWs

Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2C.2

Dry Air, Midlevel Flow, and the Establishment of Persistent Deep Convection prior to Tropical Cyclogenesis

Charles N. Helms, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and L. Bosart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

2C.3

The Impact of HS3 Data Upon HWRF Forecasts

11:00 AM

2C3.A

A NU-WRF Simulation of Saharan Air Layer Structure and Its Impact on Radiation

Zhining Tao, USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun, J. J. Shi, and M. Chin

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2C.4

Airborne Radar Observations of Eyewall Replacement Cycles in Hurricane Gonzalo

Anthony C. Didlake Jr., Penn State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and G. Heymsfield, P. Reasor, and S. Guimond

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2C.5

Hurricane Outflow Jet Features Documented by Global Hawk Dropsondes and Satellite AMVs During HS3 as Targets for Future SHOUT Operations

Peter G. Black, SAIC/NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Dunion, S. A. Braun, and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2C.6

An Analysis of the Tropical Cyclone Cirrus Canopy Using HS3 and TCI Observations

Patrick Duran, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (756.7 kB)

12:00 PM

2C.7

How do Moist Entropy and Moisture Budgets Relate to Tropical Cyclone Development?

Ana Juracic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

Recorded Presentation

Session 2D

TC Genesis II

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.

10:30 AM

2D.1

The Influence of an Upper Tropospheric Potential Vorticity Anomaly on Rapid Tropical Cyclogenesis

Michael S. Fischer, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. Tang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (7.6 MB)

10:45 AM

2D.2

The Influence of a Precursor Central American Gyre and a Northerly Surge into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Formation of Hurricane Patricia in October 2015

Lance F. Bosart, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY; and P. P. Papin, A. S. Levine, and A. M. Bentley

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2D.3

Western North Pacific Monsoon Depressions: Transitions to Pre-tropical Cyclone Seedlings

Jodi Beattie, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and R. L. Elsberry

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2D.4

A Climatology of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events

Benjamin A. Schenkel, University of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2D.5

Climate Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Number Change in Mid-1990s over North Western Pacific

Ziniu Xiao, Institute of Atmospheric Physics/CAS Beijing China, beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.9 MB) Handout (1.6 MB)

11:45 AM

2D.6

Five Major Environmental Circulation Patterns for Tropical Cloud Cluster Developments in the Western North Pacific

Hsu-Feng Teng, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee and H. H. Hsu

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

2D.7

Effects of Tropical North Atlantic SST on Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the western North Pacific

Jinhua Yu, NUIST, Nanjing, China; and T. Li and Z. Tan

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.3 MB)

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Lunch

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Session 3A

Convection III

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher E. Holloway, University of Reading

1:30 PM

3A.1

Precipitation over tropical islands

Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel

1:45 PM

3A.2

Gross moist stability variations, the vertical structure of convection and growth of moisture anomalies

Larissa E. Back, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and K. Inoue and Z. R. Hansen

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

3A.3

Gross Moist Stability Assessment: Convective Amplification and Decay

Kuniaki Inoue, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and L. E. Back

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (595.9 kB)

2:15 PM

3A.4

Convective and Large-scale Mass Fluxes Determined from a Combined Analysis of Satellite Observations

Hirohiko Masunaga, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and Z. J. Luo

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3A.5

Stability and Instability criteria for Idealized Precipitating Hydrodynamics

Gerardo Hernandez-Duenas, National University of Mexico, Juriquilla, Queretaro, Mexico; and L. M. Smith and S. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3A.6

Balanced Tropical Dynamics and Convection

David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3A.7

The seasonal variation of Tibetan convective systems observed by satellite

Liang Hu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China, China; and X. Xu Sr., S. Gao, and D. Deng

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3A.8

Modeling the Interaction between Quasi-Geostrophic Vertical Motion and Convection in a Single Column

Ji Nie, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Air-Sea Interaction I

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide

1:30 PM

3B.1

Factors that impact air-sea structure in hurricanes

Joseph J. Cione, NOAA, Miami, FL; and E. A. Kalina

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3B.2

Modeling Interaction of a Tropical Cyclone with Its Cold Wake

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and P. A. Harr

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

3B.3

Glider Observations of Upper Ocean Temperature and Dynamics During Three Hurricane Passages Through the Western Atlantic

Ruth Curry, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, St. George's, Bermuda; and M. P. Guishard

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3B.4

Variability in Upper-Ocean Thermal Structure beneath Tropical Cyclones as Observed by Air-Deployed Profiling Floats

Elizabeth R. Sanabia, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and S. R. Jayne, W. Swick, S. Chen, and J. Cummings

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3B.5

Thermal and Momentum Response of the Loop Current Complex to Hurricanes

Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Jaimes and E. W. Uhlhorn

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3B.6

A Positive Feedback Mechanism for Tropical Cyclone Intensification Over Warm Oceanic Mesoscale Features

Benjamin Jaimes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay and J. K. Brewster

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3B.7

The Air-sea Interface under Tropical Cyclones and Rapid Intensification of Some Storms to Major Tropical Cyclones

Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern Univ., Dania Beach, FL; and R. Lukas, M. A. Donelan, B. K. Haus, and I. Ginis

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3B.8

Mechanical Effect of Sea Spray on Tropical Cyclone Intensity under Idealized Conditions

Gian A. Villamil-Otero, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. Rastigejev, J. M. García-Rivera, and Y. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation

Session 3C

Seasonal Prediction and Interannual Variability I

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ.

1:30 PM

3C.1

Preliminary Evaluation of Variable-Resolution GCM Coupled 1-D Ocean Model for Seasonal Prediction

Chia-Ying Tu, Academic Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

1:45 PM

3C.2

Seasonal prediction of Australian region tropical cyclones: the respective influences of the subtropical Indian Ocean and ENSO

Hamish A. Ramsay, Monash Univesity, Clayton, Australia; and M. Richman and L. Leslie

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

3C.3

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in a New Non-hydrostatic GFDL HiRAM

Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

3C.4

15-day and 32-day super typhoon forecast in South China Sea and operational hazard warning to off-shore construction

2:15 PM

3C.4A

Relationship between Periodic Meridional Fluctuations and Summertime Wave Patterns associated with Tropical-cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific

Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and J. H. Liu

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3C.5

Subseasonal hurricane prediction using Nested-Grid HiRAM

Lucas M. Harris, NOAA/OAR/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3C.6

Deterministic and Stochastic Aspects of ENSO's Impact on Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Christina M. Patricola, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. Saravanan and P. Chang

3:00 PM

3C.7

Understanding the Climatological Connection of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the Tropopause Variability

Madison Ferrara, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and F. Groff, Z. Moon, S. Robeson, and C. Kieu

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3C.8

Impacts of the Central Pacific El Niño on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean

Kevin K. W. Cheung, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and M. A. Sattar

Session 3D

Numerical Modeling I: Idealized Dynamics

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Stephen Guimond, University of Maryland

3D.1

On the Dynamics of Complexly Sheared Tropical Cyclone Convection

1:45 PM

3D.2

Nonlinear Response of a Tropical Cyclone Vortex to Prescribed Eyewall Heating with and without surface friction in TCM4: Implications for Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Junyao Heng, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

3D.3

Secondary eyewalls in idealized HWRF simulations

Lin Zhu, IMSG NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Abarca, W. Wang, Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3D.4

A new method to simulate tropical cyclone boundary layers

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3D.5

The impact of gradient wind imbalance on tropical cyclone intensification

Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and M. Lee

Handout (1.1 MB)

2:45 PM

3D.6

Dry and Semi-Dry Tropical Cyclones

Timothy W. Cronin, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and D. R. Chavas

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3D.7

Vortex Rossby wave propagation and wave-mean-flow interaction in 3D baroclinic TC-like vortices

Cen Gao, Florida International University, MIAMI, FL; and P. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3D.8

Barotropic and Baroclinic Processes Associated with Convective Development in the Deep Tropical Convective Regime

Xiaofan Li, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; and G. Zhai

Recorded Presentation

Handout (914.0 kB)

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Afternoon Break

Location: Ponce Foyer (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016

Session 4A

Convection IV

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ.

4A.1

Modeling the Coupling between Large-Scale Dynamics and Convection in the 2010 Pakistan Flood

4:15 PM

4A.2

A Stochastic Model for the Background Spectrum of Tropical Convection

Scott Hottovy, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4A.3

Stochasticity of Convection in Giga-LES Data

Boualem Khouider, Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and M. De La Chevrotière and A. J. Majda

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4A.4

Stochasticity and Organization of Tropical Convection through a Multicloud Lattice Model

Elsa Cardoso-Bihlo, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4A.5

A new Framework for Cumulus Parametrization - Ideas, Observations and first Results

Benjamin Moebis, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, VIC, Australia; and C. Jakob and K. Peters

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4A.6

Representing coastal tropical convection in global climate models using stochastic models

Martin Bergemann, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and C. Jakob

Recorded Presentation

Handout (13.6 MB)

5:30 PM

4A.7

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Convective Cloud Systems to Changes in Microphysics and the Environment

Derek J. Posselt, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

4A.8

Disentangling dynamical and microphysical causes of tropical convective precipitation biases in high-resolution simulations

Adam C. Varble, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. W. Stanford, E. J. Zipser, J. W. Strapp, J. Delanoë, D. Leroy, A. V. Korolev, R. J. Potts, A. Protat, and A. Schwarzenboeck

Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

Air-Sea Interaction II

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

4:00 PM

4B.1

The South Pacific Ocean Climatology (SPOC)

Jodi K. Brewster, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4B.2

Dynamic Potential Intensity: An Improved Representation of the Ocean's Impact on Tropical Cyclones

Karthik Balaguru, PNNL, Seattle, WA; and G. R. Foltz, L. R. Leung, E. A. D'Asaro, K. A. Emanuel, H. Liu, and S. E. Zedler

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4B.3

Air-sea Interactions with an Eddy-resolving Coupled Climate Model

Malcolm J. Roberts, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and H. Hewitt, A. Shelly, C. Guiavarc'h, P. Hyder, and M. Mizielinski

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4B.4

The Role of High Frequency Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction In Modulating Tropical Cyclone Activity

Enrico Scoccimarro, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia/Centro euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; and P. Fogli, S. Gualdi, S. Masina, and A. Navarra

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4B.5

Ocean Surface Current Effects on the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation in DYNAMO Hindcasts with the Navy Earth System Model

James A. Ridout, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. F. Shriver, J. G. Richman, A. J. Wallcraft, M. K. Flatau, C. A. Reynolds, T. Shinoda, P. J. Hogan, T. G. Jensen, C. Chen, and N. P. Barton

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4B.6

Estimating Biases in Tropical Cyclone Climatology Due to the Lack of Two-Way Air-Sea Coupling in High-Resolution Prescribed SST Experiments

Colin M. Zarzycki, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

4B.7

Effect of Air-Sea Coupling on Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model

5:45 PM

4B.8

L-band GNSS-R Retrieval Algorithms for Tropical Cyclones Based on Wind-Wave Growth Similarity

David D. Chen, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and P. A. Hwang

Recorded Presentation

Session 4C

Seasonal Prediction and Interannual Variability II

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC

4:00 PM

4C.1

Causes of Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of the Pacific-Japan Pattern in northern Summer

Li Tao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4C.2

The interdecadal change of ENSO impact on wintertime East Asian climate

XiaoJing Jia, ZheJiang University, HangZhou, China

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4C.3

The Early-1990s Climate Shift and the ENSO Diversity

Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and H. Paek

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4C.4

The Climatological Effect of Saharan Dust on Global Tropical Cyclones in a Fully Coupled GCM

Jeffrey D. O. Strong, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (9.3 MB)

5:00 PM

4C.5

The Record-Breaking 2015 North Central Pacific Hurricane Season

Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. S. Blake and R. Maue

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4C.6

Tropical cyclone landfall in Japan during 1900-2014

Hisayuki Kubota, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and R. Kumazawa and H. Fudeyasu

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4C.7

Contributions of Scale-interaction to the Decadal Change in Tropical Cyclone in Autumn over the western North Pacific

Pang-chi Hsu, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and T. H. Lee and C. H. Tsou

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

4C.8

An Introduction to the NASA East Pacific Origins and Characteristics of Hurricanes (EPOCH) Field Campaign

Amber E. Emory, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. McLinden, M. Schreier, and G. A. Wick

Recorded Presentation

Session 4D

Numerical Modeling II: Microphysics and Evaluation

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: James Doyle, NRL

4:00 PM

4D.1

Explicit electrification and lightning in a 350 m WRF-ARW simulation of Hurricane Isaac (2012): Comparisons with observations and relationships with microphysics and kinematics

Alexandre Fierro, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and E. R. Mansell, D. R. MacGorman, and C. Ziegler

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4D.2

Uncertainty in model climate sensitivity traced to representations of cumulus precipitation microphysics

Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and J. C. Golaz, I. M. Held, V. Ramaswamy, S. J. Lin, Y. Ming, P. Ginoux, B. Wyman, L. Donner, D. Paynter, and H. Guo

4:30 PM

4D.3

An Evaluation of Alternative Species-Advecting Microphyiscs Schemes in Hurricane WRF

Christina Holt, NOAA ESRL, CIRES, Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, Z. Zhang, S. Trahan, L. R. Bernardet, G. Thompson, and K. M. Newman

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4D.4

Evaluation of microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes in the HWRF model using satellite observations

Jason Otkin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis, A. L. Lenzen, B. McNoldy, and S. J. Majumdar

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4D.5

Toward Identifying and Understanding Errors in Numerically Simulated Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Benjamin W. Green, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and H. Winterbottom, E. A. Kalina, and J. J. Cione

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4D.6

The Impact of Microphysics, Resolution, and Domain Size on Tropical Convection Systems

Wei-Kuo Tao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. D. Chern, S. E. Lang, D. Wu, K. I. Mohr, X. Li, M. I. Lee, and S. Y. Kim

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4D.7

A Comparison between Hurricane WRF and TWRF in Typhoon Track and Rainfall Forecast over the western North Pacific

Chin-Cheng Tsai, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, Taipei City, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, D. S. Chen, J. W. Bao, and C. S. Lee

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.4 MB) Handout (2.2 MB)

5:45 PM

4D.8

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Spinup Time and Convection to the Initial Entropy Deficit

Joshua J. Alland, SUNY, Albany, NY; and B. Tang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.5 MB)

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 18 April 2016

AMS Icebreaker

Location: Royal Room (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Tuesday, 19 April 2016

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Coffee Break

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Session 5A

DA and Observing Systems I

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Michael M. Bell, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa

8:00 AM

5A.1

SHOUT – Assessing the Utility of Unmanned Aircraft for Improving Operational Forecasts of Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Gary A. Wick, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Hood, J. P. Dunion, M. L. Black, P. M. Kenul, and J. J. Coffey

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5A.2

Initial assessment of NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft remote sensing observations

Hui Christophersen, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and J. Dunion, A. Aksoy, and B. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5A.3

The Impact of NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft Observations on HEDAS Surface Wind Analyses

Kathryn Sellwood, University of Miami CIMAS and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and B. W. Klotz, B. Annane, A. Aksoy, J. Dunion, H. Christopherson, and B. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5A.4

Improving the prediction and understanding of hurricane rapid intensity change through assimilating TCI and IFEX field campaign data using the hybrid EnVar system

Xuguang Wang, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, Norman, OK; and X. Lu

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5A.5

Underwater Glider Observations in the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic Ocean in Support of Tropical Cyclone Studies

Gustavo Goni, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. Domingues, F. Bringas, J. Morell, G. R. Halliwell Jr., S. K. Lee, H. S. Kim, L. Pomales, and J. Dong

9:15 AM

5A.6

Preliminary Evaluation of the First Rocket-Deployed Dropsonde Observations in a Tropical Cyclone: A Project EXOTICCA Case Study in STY Mujigae (2015)

jie tang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration, PRC,Shanghai, shanghai, Shanghai, China; and X. Lei, B. zhao, and P. G. Black

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5A.7

Impacts of an Airborne Doppler Wind Lidar on Tropical Cyclone Analyses and Forecasts

Lisa Bucci, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and G. D. Emmitt, J. A. Zhang, H. Christophersen, K. Ryan, C. O'Handley, A. Aksoy, B. Dahl, and R. Atlas

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5A.8

Assessing the Value of the Coyote UAS Platform and Observations from the Perspective of Tropical Cyclone Data Assimilation and Prediction

Altug Aksoy, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione, H. Christophersen, and B. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

Monsoons I

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Hanh Nguyen, Bureau of Meteorology

8:00 AM

5B.1

Understanding the Asian Summer Monsoon Response to Greenhouse Warming: The Relative Roles of Direct Radiative Forcing and SST Change

Xiaoqiong Li, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and M. Ting

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.1 MB)

8:15 AM

5B.2

Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under a high emission climate change scenario using CMIP5 climate models

S. Sharmila, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; and A. Sahai, S. Joseph, S. Abhilash, and R. Chattopadhyay

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.9 MB)

8:30 AM

5B.3

Near-Linear Response of Mean Monsoon Strength to a Broad Range of Radiative Forcings

William R. Boos, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and T. Storelvmo

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5B.4

Role of stratiform heating on the organization of convection over the monsoon trough

Ajayamohan Ravindran, New York University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and B. Khouider, A. J. Majda, and Q. Deng

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5B.5

Monsoons over an Idealized Zonally-Symmetric Continent

Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and A. Laraia

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5B.6

The Influence of Idealized Topography on Zonally Asymmetric ITCZ Migrations

Ho-Hsuan Wei, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5B.7

The atmosphere-ocean interaction and development of the 2015 Asian monsoon in coupled NAVGEM/HYCOM Simulations

Maria Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Ridout, N. P. Barton, C. Reynolds, and M. Janiga

9:45 AM

5B.8

High Resolution Soil Moisture and Temperature assimilation over Indian Monsoon region under National Monsoon Mission (NMM) Project: Impact study on Monsoon Depressions

U. C. Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, India; and K. K. Osuri, M. Rajeevan, and D. Niyogi

Recorded Presentation

Session 5C

Hazard Communication

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS/Univ. of Miami)

8:00 AM

5C.1

Dissemination of forecast products through the NHC website: today and moving forward

David A. Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center, NCEP/NWS, Miami, FL, Miami, FL; and M. Sardi

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5C.2

Tailoring Hurricane-related Decision Support for Varying Risk Tolerances

Pablo Santos, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and D. Sharp

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5C.3

Educating Students about Hurricane Hazards and Preparedness

John P. Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, C. W. Knowlton, H. Morin, A. B. Damiano, and R. G. Henning

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5C.4

The Effective Hurricane Messaging Course: Preparing NWS Decision Support Specialists for Hurricane Emergencies

David Sharp, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and P. Santos, A. Devanas, M. J. Moreland, D. P. Brown, J. McNatt, J. Koch, and S. White

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5C.5

Improving Communication of Hurricane and Storm Surge Risks in the Modern Information Environment

Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Watts, C. M. Barton, J. L. Demuth, H. Lazrus, O. Wilhelmi, C. A. Davis, C. Snyder, L. Palen, and K. M. Anderson

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5C.6

Coastal Flooding Decision Support Tool for Forecast Operations in Alaska

Andrew David Moore, Student, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5C.7

Modeling Hurricane Impacts On Gulf Of Mexico Offshore Structures. Why Size Matters

Jill F. Hasling, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.3 MB)

9:45 AM

5C.8

An Index for Cyclone Damage Potential

Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Done, M. Ge, and R. Douglas

Recorded Presentation

Session 5D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity I: Observations of Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Derrick C. Herndon, CIMSS

8:00 AM

5D.1

Western Hemisphere Record Reconnaissance Observations in Hurricane Patricia

Richard G. Henning, NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, Lakeland, FL; and M. Holmes, P. Flaherty, I. Sears, J. Parrish, and A. B. Damiano

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (856.8 kB)

8:15 AM

5D.2

Analysis of Hurricanes Using Long-Range Lightning Detection Networks

Benjamin Christopher Trabing, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Knaff

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (582.3 kB)

8:30 AM

5D.3

Understanding the Relationship Between Lightning Outbreaks and Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Stephanie N. Stevenson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. Corbosiero

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

8:45 AM

5D.4

Radial and Azimuthal Variations in Convective Burst Structure in Tropical Cyclones from Airborne Doppler Observations

Joshua B. Wadler, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. F. Rogers

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (433.7 kB)

9:00 AM

5D.5

Examination of Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensification with the Extended Flight Level Dataset (FLIGHT+) from 1999 to 2012

Jonathan Martinez, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (329.0 kB)

9:15 AM

5D.6

The Intensity-dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Rate in Observations and in a Simple Energetic Model

Yuqing Wang, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, HI; and J. Xu, Z. Tan, and D. Schonemann

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5D.7

Investigation of the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones using infrared and microwave imagery

Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia; and K. M. Wood

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5D.8

The signal of future TC intensification in the Cloudsat measurements

Shun-Nan Wu, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (456.6 kB)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Morning Break

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Session 6A

DA and Observing Systems II

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

10:30 AM

6A.1

Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Vital Record for Typhoon Forecasts based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter Algorithm

Tien Duc Du, National hydro-meteorological service, Ha Noi, Vietnam; and T. Ngo-Duc and C. Kieu

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

10:45 AM

6A.2

Exploring the impact of tropical cyclone relocation for the operational NCEP GFS/GDAS

Daryl T. Kleist, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and K. L. Howard, R. Mahajan, and M. J. Brennan

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6A.3

Standardization and Assimilation of Surface Wind Observations During Land-falling Tropical Cyclones

Marty Bell, WeatherFlow, Ft. Collins, CO; and F. Masters

Recorded Presentation

6A.4

IAU alike Initialization Applied to HWRF for Hurricane Forecast

11:30 AM

6A.5

A mesoscale hybrid data assimilation system based on the JMA nonhydrostatic model

Kosuke Ito, University of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and M. Kunii, T. Kawabata, K. Saito, and L. Duc

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6A.6

OSSE Evaluation of Potential Aircraft Reconnaissance Flight Patterns and their Impact on Hurricane Forecasts

Kelly Ryan, CIMAS/Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6A.7

Impact of Global Hawk Observing Strategies on Vortex-Scale Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in an OSSE Framework

Brittany Dahl, NOAA/AOML and Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and H. Christophersen, A. Aksoy, and J. Dunion

Recorded Presentation

Session 6B

Monsoons II

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology

10:30 AM

6B.1

Analysis of Gulf of California Moisture Surges in a Suite of Coupled Global Models of varying spatial Resolution

Salvatore Pascale, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Bordoni, S. Kapnick, G. Vecchi, T. L. Delworth, A. Rosati, L. Jia, and F. Zeng

Recorded Presentation

6B.2

Characterization of the Rainy Season of Mesoamerica

Manuscript (326.1 kB)

11:00 AM

6B.3

Probing the Spatiotemporal Structure of Hydrometeors in Indian Monsoon Depressions

Kieran M. R. Hunt, Univeristy of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and A. G. Turner

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.6 MB)

11:15 AM

6B.4

Perspectives on moist baroclinic instability: implications for the growth of monsoon depressions

Naftali Y. Cohen, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and W. R. Boos

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6B.5

Synoptic-Dynamic Analysis of Early Dry-Season Rainfall Events in the Vietnamese Central Highlands

Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and R. van der Linden, T. Phan-Van, and L. Trinh-Tuan

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6B.6

Interactions between tropical cyclones and near-by monsoon gyres

Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA

Recorded Presentation

6B.7

Mapping information pathways of the Asian monsoon with pacemaker simulations

Session 6C

Historical Perspectives on TCs

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert Hart, Florida State University

10:30 AM

6C.1

On the Scientific Accomplishments of Dr. José Angel Colón Pérez, the First Hurricane Researcher from Puerto Rico

Daniel Melendez, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and T. N. Krishnamurti, N. Dorst, H. A. Friedman, W. M. Gray, I. Matos, R. mendez, R. Mojica, A. Monzón, J. Morales, and E. J. Zipser

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6C.2

The Atlantic Hurricane Seasons of 1837 and 1838

Cary J. Mock, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC; and C. W. Landsea and S. Delgado

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6C.3

Reanalysis of the late 1950s and early 1960s Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Sandy Delgado, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6C.4

Hurricanes of Extraordinary Size: 1956's Greta, 1962's Ella, and 2012's Sandy

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and S. Delgado

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6C.5

Historical Hurricanes in MERRA-2

Marangelly Fuentes, SSAI/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; and O. Reale

11:45 AM

6C.6

Cape Verde's First Hurricane in Modern Times: Preparation, Observations, WRF Model Forecasts and Recommendations

Gregory S. Jenkins, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and E. Brito, E. Soares, S. Chiao, J. P. Lima, F. Evora, B. Tavares, A. Cardoso, and M. R. Monteiro

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6C.7

A Global Investigation of the Impacts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones on Societies

Denise L. Balukas, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie and K. M. Wood

Recorded Presentation

Session 6D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity II: Rapid Intensification

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John A. Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS

10:30 AM

6D.1

The Evolution of Rainfall and Convection in Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones based on 16 years of TRMM Data

Cheng Tao, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (859.5 kB)

10:45 AM

6D.2

Impact of Storm structure and the Environmental Conditions in the the Rapid Intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Patricia

Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. J. Morin, K. Emanuel, J. A. Knaff, C. Sampson, I. Ginis, and B. Thomas

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6D.3

Possible predictors for the rapid intensification and evolution of hurricanes from near-coincident satellite observations of the structure of precipitation and surface winds: Hurricane Joaquin

Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and Z. S. Haddad, B. W. Stiles, T. P. J. Shen, N. Niamsuwan, F. J. Turk, P. P. Li, B. W. Knosp, Q. A. Vu, B. H. Lambrigtsen, and W. L. Poulsen

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6D.4

Environmental Thresholds of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the South China Sea

Hao Hu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, beijing, China; and Y. Duan

11:30 AM

6D.5

Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

Ke Peng, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and J. Fang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (2.2 MB)

11:45 AM

6D.6

A Statistical Analysis of Steady Eyewall Sizes Associated with Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes

Nannan Qin, Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China; and D. L. Zhang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (136.4 kB)

12:00 PM

6D.7

High Resolution Simulation of Super Typhoon Ramonsoon(2014): Inner Core Structure, Convective Burst and Validation of a Simple Energetic Model

Zhang Xinghai, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and D. Yihong and Y. Wang

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Lunch

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Session 7A

DA and Observing Systems III

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Altug Aksoy, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML

1:30 PM

7A.1

Impact of Having Realistic Tropical Cyclone Frequency on Ocean Heat Content & Transport Forecasts

Shaoqing N. Zhang, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7A.2

Pilot Study in 2015 for the Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) in 2017-2019

Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and M. Katsumata, S. Mori, F. Syamsudin, and N. Nurhayati

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7A.3

Ship-based in-situ observation of precipitating systems and accompanying atmosphere-ocean variations at the western end of the maritime continent: A contribution to Pre-YMC 2015 field campaign

Masaki Katsumata, JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan; and B. Geng, K. Taniguchi, Q. Moteki, I. Matsui, Y. Kaneko, T. Suematsu, P. K. Putra, D. S. Banurea, M. Yokota, M. Hattori, M. Fujita, A. Yanase, S. Matsugishi, F. Syamsudin, and K. Yoneyama

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7A.4

Using Dropsondes to Estimate Surface Fluxes in Tropical Cyclones: Uncertainty and Reliability

David H. Richter, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN; and R. Bohac and D. P. Stern

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7A.5

The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation Tropical Cyclone Mission

Christopher S. Ruf, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and M. P. Clarizia, S. Gleason, A. Ridley, and D. J. Posselt

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7A.6

Assessing the impact of assimilating CYGNSS ocean surface winds on tropical cyclone analyses and forecasts with regional OSSEs

Shixuan Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

3:00 PM

7A.7

Assimilating Himawari-8 Brightness Temperature: A Case Study on Typhoon Soudelor (2015)

Takumi Honda, RIKEN, Kobe, Japan; and G. Y. Lien, S. Nishizawa, R. Yoshida, S. A. Adachi, K. Terasaki, K. Okamoto, H. Tomita, K. Bessho, and T. Miyoshi

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

7A.8

Assimilation of All-sky Infrared Brightness Temperatures and Atmospheric Motion Vectors in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Masashi Minamide, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.6 MB)

Session 7B

Tropical Extratropical Interactions I

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: George N. Kiladis, NOAA/ESRL

1:30 PM

7B.1

A triggering factor of the eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation observed in late October during CINDY2011

Qoosaku Moteki, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka city, Japan

Recorded Presentation

Handout (21.7 MB)

1:45 PM

7B.2

Tropical-Extratropical Interactions with the MJO Skeleton and Climatological Mean Flow

Shengqian Chen, University of Wisconsin at Madison, Madison, WI; and A. J. Majda and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7B.8

Tropical Cyclone Activity and Extratropical Rossby Wave Breaking: A See-Saw Relationship in the Atlantic Basin

Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.5 MB)

2:15 PM

7B.4

The Variability of the Tropical Diurnal Cycle Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Naoko Sakaeda, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7B.5

An Analysis of Tropical Moisture Transport During Agricultural Drought Transition Periods Over the United States Corn Belt Region

Nicholas Joseph Schiraldi, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7B.6

The Cloud-Radiative Forcing of the US landfalling Atmospheric Rivers

Qianwen Luo, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7B.7

Influence of Cloud-Radiative Processes on Predecessor Rain Events

Omar A. Nava, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and R. G. Fovell

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.7 MB)

3:15 PM

7B.3

Intraseasonal Variability in the Tropics-Extratropics System: Internal Dynamics versus External Influences

Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and M. N. Morgan II

Session 7C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity III: Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY

1:30 PM

7C.1

Exceptional Surface Wind Gusts in a Tropical Cyclone Large Eddy Simulation

Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. H. Bryan and D. P. Stern

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7C.2

The Tropical Cyclone Intensification Ratio: HWRF and Observations

Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7C.3

What is the Role of Deep Convection in the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones?

John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7C.4

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensification to Axisymmetric Heat Sources Part I: The Role of Inertial Stability

Georgina Paull, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7C.5

Forced, balanced model of tropical cyclone intensification

Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (484.9 kB)

2:45 PM

7C.6

Revisiting the WISHE mechanism of hurricane intensification

Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and K. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7C.7

Boundary Layer Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich, Germany; and G. Kilroy, C. Schmidt, N. Crnivec, and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

7C.8

The dynamics of intensification in an HWRF simulation of Hurricane Earl (2010)

Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and R. K. Smith and J. A. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

Session 7D

TC Outflow & Structure: Early Results from TCI

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Patrick A. Harr, NSF

1:30 PM

7D.1

Overview of the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment: Unique Observations of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, J. Feldmeier, R. Ferek, M. Beaubien, D. J. Cecil, L. Harrison, and P. Harr

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7D.2

Inner Core Structure of Hurricane Patricia Observed During TCI-2015

Michael M. Bell, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and J. Martinez, J. D. Doyle, and R. F. Rogers

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7D.3

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Observations in Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty (2015)

Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and S. Biswas

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7D.4

Observational Evidence of Hurricane Outflow Layer Richardson Number Criticality

Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7D.5

Interactions between the Outflow of Tropical Cyclones Marty and Joaquin as revealed by outflow variability observed by HDSS soundings during the 2015 TCI Experiment

Gregory J. Tripoli, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. E. Lewis

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7D.6

Analysis of High Temporal and Spatial Observations of Hurricane Joaquin during TCI-15

Russell L. Elsberry, University Colorado--Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, CO; and C. S. Velden, D. J. Cecil, M. M. Bell, and E. A. Hendricks

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7D.7

Ensemble-based Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclone Outflow

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. R. Moskaitis, J. Doyle, and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

7D.8

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Outflow to the Environmental Flow

Yi Dai, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and D. Nolan

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Afternoon Break

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Poster Session

Air-Sea Interaction

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Novel measurements of Sea Surface Temperature in Tropical Cyclones obtained from GPS dropsonde

Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and J. J. Cione, E. A. Kalina, E. Uhlhorn, T. Hock, and J. A. Smith

Role of SST in Triggering the Summer WAM

Lander R. Crespo, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; and N. Keenlyside and S. Koseki

Handout (6.8 MB)

Influence of Amazonian vegetation on moisture transport toward equatorial America: a modeling perspective

Jhoana Agudelo, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellin, Colombia; and P. A. Arias, S. C. Vieira, J. F. Salazar, and J. A. Martinez

Handout (4.2 MB)

Sea Surface Cooling due to Precipitation in the Tropics

Camila G. M. Ramos, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray

Manuscript (319.0 kB)

Handout (3.0 MB)

Poster Session

Convection

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

A Case Study of the Effects of Saharan Mineral Dust Aerosols on the Structure of the African Easterly Jet–African Easterly Wave System

Emily Bercos-Hickey, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and T. R. Nathan and S. H. Chen

Evaluation of Simulated Tropical Convective Updraft Properties using HAIC-HIWC Aircraft Observations

McKenna W. Stanford, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. C. Varble

Sensitivity of the ACCESS forecast model statistical rainfall properties to resolution

Hanh Nguyen, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and A. Protat, M. Whimpey, and L. J. Rikus

Detecting Saharan Air Layer Influence on Organized Convective Systems in northern Africa

Karen I. Mohr, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Nicholls

The influence of the cloud radiative effect on the double ITCZ bias

Benjamin Moebis, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, VIC, Australia; and B. Stevens

Capturing Convergence Lines in the Tropics and Associated Rainfall

Evan Weller, Monash University, Clayton, Australia; and M. Reeder and C. Jakob

Characteristics and Moistening Effects of Shallow Clouds in the Tropical Western Pacific

David Zermeno, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

11A

Clouds, Circulation, and Climate Sensitivity in a Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Channel Model

Timothy W. Cronin, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and A. A. Wing

Comparing diabatic heating: conventional versus superparameterized climate model - related to the stochastic parameterization problem

Gino Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Investigating Potential Biases in TRMM Measurements of Precipitation Systems with Extreme Rain Rates and Extreme Intensities

Alexandria C. Gingrey, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser, A. C. Varble, and S. Bang

Differences in the Evolution of Convection and Lightning between Land and Ocean: A Study Using TRMM and Ground-based Data

Sarah Bang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Zipser

Latent Heating Profiles over the Amazon in relation to the Atlantic Walker Circulation

Emily Monroe, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher

The effects of overshooting convection on mixing within the tropical tropical tropopause layer in idealised climate states

Hamish A. Ramsay, Monash Univesity, Clayton, Australia; and S. C. Sherwood and M. S. Singh

Polarimetric Radar Characteristics of Shallow Convection in Hawaii during HERO

Michael M. Bell, Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and A. Frambach

Poster Session

DA and Observing Systems

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde Observations in the NCEP GSI/GFS System for Hurricane Joaquin (2015)

Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL; and K. L. Howard, S. J. Majumdar, and D. T. Kleist

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution ACCESS Model

Xingbao Wang, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and J. D. Kepert, N. E. Davidson, and Y. Xiao

Mitigating Aviation Weather Threats in the Upper Troposphere of Hurricanes

Vanessa M. Przybylo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Queensbury, NY; and M. Holmes, I. Sears, R. G. Henning, P. Flaherty, A. B. Damiano, and J. Parrish

Poster Session

Extratropical Transition

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

A Comparison of the Downstream Predictability Associated with Extratropical Transition and Baroclinic Cyclones

Ryan D. Torn, SUNY, Albany, NY

Investigating High Impact Weather Events over the Western United States Downstream of Extratropically Transitioning Tropical Cyclones using the GEFS/R

W. R. Strickler, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie and K. M. Wood

Ventilation Pathways and Air Stream Evolution during the Extratropical Transition of Typhoon Malakas (2010)

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany; and T. Kremer, C. Euler, E. Schömer, C. M. Grams, and A. Miltenberger

A Climatology of Atmospheric Rivers

Poster Session

HFIP

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Simulated Secondary Eyewall in Operational HWRF

Federico DiCatarina, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Abarca, W. Wang, Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada

Streamlining Transition of New Developments to the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Ligia R. Bernardet, CIRES/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Holt, J. Frimel, L. Carson, K. M. Newman, and M. K. Biswas

Global Expansion of a Statistical-Dynamical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and B. D. McNoldy

29A

Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Prediction with a High-resolution Regional Model: The COAMPS-TC ensemble

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Reinecke and J. Doyle

Impact of stochastic model physics on hurricane intensity change forecasts

Poster Session

Hazard Communication

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Understanding Public Hurricane Evacuation Decisions and Responses to Forecast and Warning Messages

Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Demuth, J. K. Lazo, H. Lazrus, K. Dickinson, B. H. Morrow, and C. W. Trumbo

Handout (2.3 MB)

An Examination of Situation-Specific Uncertainty Statements in Tropical Cyclone Forecast Products

Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. L. Dagg

Poster Session

Intraseasonal Variability

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Model Fidelity of Multi-scale Variability over the Maritime Continent

Dariusz B. Baranowski, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser and X. Jiang

Subtropical PV Streamer Variability and Impact in the Subtropical North Atlantic Basin

Philippe P. Papin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Predictability of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation based on Statistical Models: Sensitivity to ISO Indices

Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, IPRC, Honolulu, HI; and G. N. Kiladis

The Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of African Easterly Wave Activity

Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and G. N. Kiladis

Forecast Error Wavepackets in the Midlatitude Stormtrack associated with Recurving Typhoons

Improving MJO Forecasts in the Navy's Coupled Global Modeling System

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Ridout, M. K. Flatau, N. P. Barton, S. Yang, M. Janiga, and D. B. Baranowski

Convective Cold Pools over the Atlas Mountains and Their Influence on the Saharan Heat Low

Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz and R. Redl

Handout (3.7 MB)

Assessment of Gross Moist Stability and its Relationship to the MJO in Reanalysis Data

Naoko Sakaeda, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. E. Roundy

Dynamical downscaling of diurnal convection around the Maritime Continent associated with MJO activity

Mikiko Fujita, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

IntraSeasonal Variability of the Belg Rains in Ethiopia

Endalkachew Bekele Biratu, UCAR/CPC, College Park, MD; and W. M. Thiaw and D. Korecha

Handout (901.0 kB)

Diurnal Cycle of ITCZ Convection during DYNAMO

Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. Johnson

Poster Session

Large-Scale Circulation

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Diurnal and its Impacts on Trade Wind and ITCZ

Wei Huang, Private, Houston, TX

Handout (4.5 MB)

What drives the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation?

Scale-interactions among Atmospheric Rivers, Mid-latitude Cyclones, and Planetary Waves

Climatology of Recurving Tropical Cyclones Interacting with the Extratropical Jet in the North Atlantic

Lauren E. Visin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and L. Brannan and J. M. Chagnon

The Global Circulation of TPW at High Temporal Resolution from Microwave Satellites

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. Gerth, B. Ward, C. Scott, K. Kasper, and X. Zhan

The Zonally Resolved Atmospheric Energy Budget: A Predictive Theory For Orbitally Forced Regional Rainfall Changes

William R. Boos, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. Korty

Assessing the equatorial long-wave approximation: asymptotics and observational data analysis

H. Reed Ogrosky, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and S. N. Stechmann

Revisiting the role of eddies in determining the strength of the Hadley circulation

Martin S. Singh, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

Reevaluate Hadley Circulation

Wei Huang, Private, Houston, TX

Handout (4.9 MB)

Poster Session

NASA HS3

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Tropical cyclone outflow and structure as revealed by high-resolution TCI and HS3 dropsonde data

William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle

Impact of HS3 Dropsonde Observations on COAMPS-TC Forecasts

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, D. Tyndall, and S. A. Braun

Secondary eyewall dynamics as captured by an unprecedented array of GPS dropsondes deployed into Edouard 2014

Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. T. Montgomery, S. A. Braun, and J. P. Dunion

Testing proposed mechanisms of outflow control on tropical cyclone intensification

Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and J. Persing, R. K. Smith, and T. J. Dunkerton

Poster Session

Operations and Landfall

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Flood Inundation and Run-Off Modeling in Tropical Cyclones using the WRF-HYDRO Model

Konstantine Louis Pryles, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

An Update on the Performance of Real-time COAMPS-TC Forecasts and Recent Advances in COAMPS-TC Testing and Evaluation

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle and R. M. Hodur

2015 Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch

Nelsie A. Ramos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and H. D. Cobb III and M. J. Folmer

Handout (18.3 MB)

An integrated tool for forecasting tropical cyclone induced floods : the SPICY project

Francois Bonnardot, Meteo-France, Sainte-Clotide, Reunion; and H. Quetelard, O. Bousquet, D. Barbary, C. Barthe, S. Bielli, J. Meister, S. Lecacheux, R. Pedreros, F. Paris, E. Chateauminois, A. Nicolae-Lerma, J. Rohmer, R. Recouvreur, M. C. Germain, S. Sauvagnagues, P. A. Ayral, and F. Tena-Chollet

Handout (1.7 MB)

Near Real-time Forecast using a Global Nonhydrostatic Model for a Field Campaign in the Maritime Continent

Tomoe Nasuno, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and F. Vitart

Reducing Operational Hurricane Intensity Forecast Errors During Eyewall Replacement Cycles

James P. Kossin, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Madison, WI; and M. DeMaria

An evaluation of a real-time statistical-dynamical tropical cyclone genesis guidance tool based on global model output

Daniel J. Halperin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. E. Hart, H. E. Fuelberg, and J. Cossuth

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Model Improvement: Better Models or Easier Forecasts?

Kieran Bhatia, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Nolan

Handout (1.1 MB)

Bias-correction of Tropical Cyclone Structure in a Global Ensemble Prediction System

Jeffrey D. Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and H. Ye, S. Aijaz, and Z. Huang

Wave Modelling under a High Resolution Tropical Cyclone Model

Stefan Zieger, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and D. Greenslade and J. D. Kepert

A Forecasters' Handbook for West Africa

Mariane Diop-Kane, Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), Dakar, Senegal; and A. H. Fink, J. P. Lafore, A. Laing, B. L. Lamptey, D. J. Parker, L. Razafindrakoto, W. M. Thiaw, and C. Thorncroft

Handout (6.9 MB)

Evaluation of Capability of a Multi-model Ensemble System for Typhoon Forecast in Northwestern Pacific

Chou-Chun Chiang, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and D. Y. C. Chen, C. J. Wang, M. E. Hsieh, and L. Y. Chang

A New Interpretation of Global Tropical Cyclone Landfall Risk

N. Joss Matthewman, Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom; and S. R. A. Dey, E. Bellone, and S. Jewson

Poster Session

Recent Field Programs

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

70A

The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Awards – An Integral Step Toward Research-to-Operations at the National Weather Service

Daniel Melendez, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer, V. Tallapragada, F. Marks, R. Gall, S. Gopalakrishnan, N. lett, C. Hedge, and M. DeMaria

NASA Global Hawk S-HIS Measurements During HS3

William L. Smith Sr., University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and J. K. Taylor, E. Weisz, D. H. DeSlover, R. K. Garcia, D. Hoese, H. E. Revercomb, and C. S. Velden

Handout (3.4 MB)

Using Virtual Dropsondes to Estimate the Sensitivity of Dropsonde Analyses to Sampling Errors

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle

Connections Between the Ocean and Outflow in Hurricanes Iselle and Julio (2014)

Zachary Q. Barthelmes, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and L. V. Wilson III, E. R. Sanabia, and B. S. Barrett

Poster Session

Tropical Cyclone Intensity I

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

The Role of Monsoon Trough on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Vicente (2012) in South China Sea

Xiaomin Chen, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and Y. Wang, Z. Kun, and D. Wu

The Current Status of the UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Handout (7.0 MB)

Reprocessing the “Top Ten” Most Intense Historical Tropical Cyclones in the Satellite Era Using the Advanced Dvorak Technique

Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Olander, D. Herndon, and J. Kossin

Tropical Cyclone-Relative Environmental Helicity and the Pathways to Intensification in Shear

Matthew Onderlinde, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Manuscript (525.7 kB)

Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification using Passive Microwave Imagery

Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Estimation of radius of 15m/s on Tropical Cyclone using Microwave Satellite data

Comparing CI-number/Pressure Relationships in the Western Pacific using HURSAT-ADT and Historical Reconnaissance

Carl J. Schreck III, J. P. Kossin, and C. Velden

Handout (1.1 MB)

A Climatology and Synoptic Composite Analysis of Very Small (a.k.a.: “Midget”) Tropical Cyclones undergoing Rapid Intensity Change

Thomas B. McKenzie III, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

A Climatology of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Systems over the Southwest Indian Ocean

Marie-Dominique Emmanuelle Leroux, CNRM, Sainte Clotilde Cedex, Reunion; and J. Meister, D. A. Mékiès, and O. Bousquet

Handout (1.6 MB)

Airborne Observation of Vertically-Sheared Hurricane Danny (2015)

Paul Reasor, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

The Impacts of Numerical Schemes on Asymmetric Hurricane Intensification

Stephen Guimond, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Reisner, S. Marras, and F. X. Giraldo

Poster Session

Tropical Cyclone Rainbands and Precipitation

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Comparison of GPM and TRMM Satellite-Derived Precipitation Rates in Tropical Cyclones

Observation of Tropical Cyclone Self-Induced Barrier Layer

John Daniel Steffen, Florida State University/Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Chen, L. K. Shay, and B. Jaimes

The Effect of Precipitable Water on The Amount of Rainfall and The Rain-field Size for Tropical Cyclone Landfalling

Sanghoon Kim, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas

Spatial Analysis of Rainfall Patterns of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in Southeast United States

Yao Zhou, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas

Precipitation Analysis During Hurricane Landfall Situations Using NARR and UPD Data

Guoqian Yan, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas

Poster Session

Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Use of the VIIRS Day-Night Band Imagery for Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting

Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff, R. T. DeMaria, M. DeMaria, and J. L. Beven

Handout (2.9 MB)

Influence of Simulated Space-based Doppler Wind Lidar on TC Analyses and Forecasts

Lisa Bucci, University of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, R. Atlas, G. D. Emmitt, S. Greco, and S. A. Wood

Improvement in TC analysis using dual methods of ADT and SDT operationally by COMS data in NMSC/KMA

Moisture and Precipitation Evolution during Tropical Cyclone Formation as Revealed by SSMI/SSMIS

Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and I. E. Hankes

Performance of the Revised SFMR Algorithm: 2015 Season in Review

Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/HRD, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, A. S. Goldstein, and I. PopStefanija

Handout (2.4 MB)

Examples of an Integrated Method of Tropical Cyclone Analysis Technique using Microwave Imagery and Data with Current Analysis Procedures in the Western North Pacific

Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam

Handout (4.0 MB)

A Study of the Constraints of the Dvorak Technique, Part 2: Examining Changes in the Cloud Patterns

John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi, T. B. Kimberlain, and M. Huffman

Poster Session

Tropical Cyclone Structure I

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Representative and composite passive microwave satellite images of tropical cyclones as they lie on an eye size-intensity phase space

Joshua Cossuth, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. E. Hart

The response of tropical cyclone to transient symmetric and asymmetric inner-core heating

Guanghua Chen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China; and C. C. Wu

The impact of the diurnal insolation cycle on the tropical cyclone heat engine

Morgan E. O'Neill, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel; and D. Perez-Betancourt and A. A. Wing

100

Satellite Views of the Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle

John Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and T. Birner, G. Chirokova, L. Rivoire, and R. DeMaria

101

Secondary eyewall formation fueled by outer convective instability

Kosuke Ito, University of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and C. C. Wu

102

Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Size Change and Precipitation Distribution

Hiroki Tsuji, Kyushu University, Fukuoka-shi, Fukuoka-ken, Japan; and K. Nakajima

103

A different perspective on the influence of the outflow layer on tropical cyclone structure and intensity

Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY

104

Why is the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer not Well-Mixed?

Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and J. Schwendike and H. A. Ramsay

105

Annual Variability in the Force Balance at the Outflow Layer of Tropical Cyclones from NAM12-Reanalysis

Yair Cohen, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; and N. Harnik and E. Heifetz

5:45 PM-6:45 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Session 1

Town Hall: The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation Tropical Cyclone Mission

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher Ruf, University of Michigan

5:45 PM

CYGNSS Mission and Science Pverview - Randy Rose

Recorded Presentation

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Tuesday, 19 April 2016

Session 8

Bob and Joanne Simpson Commemorative Session: Planning for Tropical Cyclone Impacts

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Panelists: Jan Klein, Twelve Capital Zurich; Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ.; James Done, NCAR; Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ.

Chair: Greg J. Holland, NCAR

Wednesday, 20 April 2016

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Coffee Break

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Session 9A

HFIP I

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ryan Torn, SUNY / Univ. at Albany

8:00 AM

9A.1

Role of HFIP in Advancing Operational Hurricane Modeling at NCEP/EMC: Current Status and Future Plans in the Context of NGGPS

Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

9A.2

HWRF 2014-2016: Advancing the State of the Art in Hurricane Numerical Guidance

Samuel Trahan, NCEP EMC (IMSG), College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, M. Tong, W. Wang, Q. Liu, B. Zhang, B. Liu, S. Abarca, H. S. Kim, D. Iredell, C. Kieu, Y. Kwon, J. Sippel, L. Zhu, T. Marchok, M. A. Bender, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, R. M. Yablonsky, G. Thompson, L. R. Bernardet, C. Holt, H. Tolman, and B. Lapenta

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

9A.3

Hook-Shaped Features in Hurricane Inner Core Region by Vertical Wind Shear and Dry Intrusion

Bin Liu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Sippel, S. Abarca, S. Trahan, Z. Zhang, L. Zhu, Q. Liu, W. Wang, K. Wu, H. S. Kim, M. Tong, and V. Tallapragada

8:45 AM

9A.4

An Evaluation of HWRF based Ensemble Prediction System for 2015 Atlantic Basin Real Time Parallel Experiment

Zhan Zhang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada, R. Torn, S. Trahan, and K. Wu

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

9A.5

Diagnosing Atmospheric Conditions Associated with Large Short-Term Intensity Forecast Errors in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model

Daniel J. Halperin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

9A.6

Global Ensemble Forecasts for Tropical Cyclone Track and Genesis

Jiayi Peng, EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and R. Wobus

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

9A.7

HNMMB: Weaving the Proven Successes of HWRF into the NEMS Framework

Steven W. Diaz, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. Quirino, S. Gopalakrishnan, V. Tallapragada, W. Wang, Q. Liu, L. Zhu, T. Black, M. Pyle, X. Zhang, J. Delgado, B. Liu, and S. Trahan

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

9A.8

Transitioning Research to the Operational Hurricane WRF model: Overview of the Developmental Testbed Center Support and Testing Activities

Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Holt, M. K. Biswas, L. R. Bernardet, L. Carson, J. Frimel, J. Halley Gotway, S. Trahan, Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

Session 9B

Intraseasonal Variability I

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Paul Roundy, SUNY; Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy

8:00 AM

9B.1

Observations of Convective Organization by the MJO

George N. Kiladis, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias and K. Kikuchi

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

9B.2

Convection Organization by the MJO during CINDY/DYNAMO Revealed by the Spatio-Temporal Wavelet Transform

Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, IPRC, Honolulu, HI; and G. N. Kiladis, J. Dias, and T. Nasuno

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

9B.3

Effect of Stratiform Heating on the Planetary-Scale Organization of Tropical Convection}

Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and Q. Deng, A. J. Majda, and A. M. Ravindran

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

9B.4

How the Occurrence of a Low-Level Moisture Anomaly Drives MJO Precipitation

Michael J. Herman, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

9B.5

Cloud and Rainfall Statistics from the MJO and the ITCZ over the Indian Ocean

Rachel C. Sodowsky, RSMAS, Miami, FL

Manuscript (587.3 kB)

9:15 AM

9B.6

The Emerging States of Madden-Julian Oscillation Convection Initiation

Matthew C. Bowers, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and W. W. Tung

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

9B.7

Examining Tropical Cyclone – Kelvin Wave Interactions using Adjoint Diagnostics

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle and X. Hong

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

9B.8

Large Scale Precipitation Tracking and the MJO Over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

Session 9C

TC Remote Sensing I

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jason Dunion, AOML

8:00 AM

9C.1

Impact Of CYGNSS Data On Hurricane Analyses And Forecasts In A Regional OSSE Framework

Bachir Annane, Univ. of Miami and NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and B. D. McNoldy, J. Delgado, L. Bucci, R. Atlas, and S. J. Majumdar

8:15 AM

9C.2

Evaluation of the Impact of CYGNSS Wind Speed Data on Tropical Cyclone Structure Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE

Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Annane, J. Delgado, L. Bucci, R. Atlas, and S. Majumdar

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

9C.3

Improvements In Wind Speed Retrieval for the CYGNSS Mission

Maria-Paola Clarizia, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Ruf

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

9C.4

A CYGNSS Tropical Cyclone Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) Science Data Product

Mary Morris, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. S. Ruf

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (415.1 kB)

9:00 AM

9C.5

The GNSS Reflectometry Response to the Ocean Surface Winds

P. S. Chang, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Jelenak, S. Soisuvarn, and F. Said

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

9C.6

Wave and Wind Direction Effects on Ocean Surface Emissivity Measurements

Heather M. Holbach, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn and M. A. Bourassa

Recorded Presentation

9C.7

A new generation of extreme wind speed measurements from space

9C.8

Extreme Surface Wind Observations in Hurricane Patricia

9:45 AM

9C.8A

The TROPICS smallsat tropical cyclone mission: High Temporal Resolution Microwave Imagery as Part of NASA’s Third Earth Venture-Instrument (EV-I3) Program

William Blackwell, Lexington, MA; and S. Braun, R. Bennartz, C. Velden, M. DeMaria, J. Dunion, R. Rogers, R. Atlas, and F. Marks

Recorded Presentation

Session 9D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity IV: Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Shear

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY

8:00 AM

9D.1

Using a Scatterometer-based, Low-wavenumber Analysis Tool to Evaluate Surface Wind Asymmetries in Tropical Cyclones

Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/HRD, UM/CIMAS, FIU, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

9D.2

Quantification of Shear-relative Precipitation Asymmetries of Tropical Cyclones in Different Intensity Change Stages

Yongxian Pei, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

8:30 AM

9D.3

Lagrangian Diagnostic of Ventilation Pathways: Case Study of an Idealized Tropical Cyclones in Vertical Wind Shear

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg Univ., Mainz, Germany; and F. Laliberte

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

9D.4

Climatological Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

9:00 AM

9D.5

Development and Application of a Tropical Cyclone Environmental Wind Climatology

Peter M. Finocchio, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

9:15 AM

9D.6

The Effect of Shallow-Layer Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the western North Pacific

Yunjie Rao, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, HI; and Y. Wang

9:30 AM

9D.7

The Tropical Cyclone Response to Smoothly Changing Wind Shear Using the Method of Time-Varying Point-Downscaling

Matthew Onderlinde, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (489.7 kB)

9:45 AM

9D.8

Quadrant-dependent Evolution of Low-level Tangential Wind of Tropical Cyclone in the Shear Flow

Jian-Feng Gu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Z. M. Tan and X. Qiu

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Morning Break

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Session 10A

HFIP II

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD

10:30 AM

10A.1

Evaluation Of The HWRF Radius Of Maximum Wind Using Doppler Radar Analyses

Frank Marks, AOML, Miami, FL; and K. J. Sellwood and S. Abarca

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

10A.2

Model Physics Influences on Tropical Cyclone Size

Yizhe Peggy Bu, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. G. Fovell

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

10A.3

Impact of Sub-Grid Scale Processes on Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones in HWRF System

Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and Z. zhu, S. Gopalakrishnan, R. A. Black, F. Marks, V. Tallapragada, J. A. Zhang, X. Zhang, and C. Gao

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

10A.4

Ensemble Forecast of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Hua Chen, NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and R. F. Rogers and S. Gopalakrishnan

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

10A.5

On the Role of the Tropopause Height in the Development of a Double Warm Core Structure in Intense Tropical Cyclones

Zachary Moon, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and C. Kieu

Recorded Presentation

Handout (7.4 MB)

11:45 AM

10A.6

Automated Quality Control and Analysis Methods for Real-Time and Research Processing of NOAA Airborne Doppler Radar Data

John F. Gamache, AOML, Miami, FL; and P. Reasor, P. P. Dodge, S. Otero, J. W. Hill, and F. Marks

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

10A.7

Towards Improving Explicitly Resolved and Sub-grid-scale Clouds in Hurricane WRF

Gregory Thompson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, K. Newman, M. K. Biswas, and C. Holt

Recorded Presentation

Session 10B

Intraseasonal Variability II

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL; Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, IPRC

10:30 AM

10B.1

Roles of Deep and Shallow Convection and Microphysics in MJO Simulations

Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and R. Pilon and J. Dudhia

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

10B.2

The interaction of diurnal cycle of convection and the propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation across the maritime continent

Samson Hagos, PNNL/DOE, Richland, WA; and C. Zhang, Z. Feng, and C. Burleyson

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

10B.3

Kernel Analog Forecasting of Intraseasonal Oscillations

Dimitrios Giannakis, New York University, New York, NY; and R. Alexander, E. Szekely, and Z. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

10B.4

Key Physics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Based on Multi-model Simulations

Xianan Jiang, University of California, Los Angeles, Pasadena, CA

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

10B.5

Further Evidence of Two Different MJO Flavors in High-Resolution Coupled Model Simulations

Benjamin W. Green, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, R. Bleck, S. G. Benjamin, G. Grell, and C. W. Fairall

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

10B.6

MJO prediction in a GFDL Coupled Model

Baoqiang Xiang, NOAA/GFDL, UCAR, Princeton, NJ; and M. Zhao, X. Jiang, S. J. Lin, T. Li, J. X. Fu, and G. Vecchi

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

10B.7

DYNAMO MJO Events Simulated by a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Model: Sensitivity on Surface Fluxes

Xiaowen Li, Morgan State University, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao, T. Iguchi, S. D. Nicholls, and C. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

Session 10C

TC Remote Sensing II

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

10:30 AM

10C.1

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation via Passive Microwave Data Features

Richard L. Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Cossuth

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

10C.2

SSMIS Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Opportunities

Jeffrey Hawkins, Goldenrod Blue Associates, Carmel, CA; and D. C. Herndon and C. S. Velden

11:00 AM

10C.3

Evaluation of the ATMS-MIRS and NUCAPS Retrievals in the Vicinity of the Tropical Cyclones

Galina Chirokova, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. F. Dostalek, R. T. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, K. D. Musgrave, and J. L. Beven

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

10C.4

Automated Objective Tropical Cyclone Eye Detection

Robert T. DeMaria, CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Knaff, G. Chirokova, and J. L. Beven

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

10C.5

The Need to Relate Tropical Cyclone Dynamics to Satellite-Observed Cloud Patterns: Why Does the Dvorak Technique Work?

John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

10C.6

The Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Karl (2010): New Remote Sensing Observations of Convective Bursts from the Global Hawk Platform

Stephen Guimond, NASA and UMD/ESSIC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Heymsfield, P. Reasor, and A. C. Didlake Jr.

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

10C.7

Satellite Signatures of Six TCs Which Rapidly Intensified in Shear

David R. Ryglicki, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and J. Cossuth

Recorded Presentation

Session 10D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity V: External Influences on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Rosimar Rios-Berrios, SUNY

10D.1

The Influences of Mesoscale Ocean Eddies on Tropical Cyclone Intensities

10:45 AM

10D.2

Enthalpy Fluxes during Tropical Cyclones in the Caribbean Sea Relative to Ocean Variability

Johna E. Rudzin, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

11:00 AM

10D.3

Effects of Surface Roughness Representation on Hurricane Intensity and Structure Forecasts

Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. W. Wang, J. R. Moskaitis, and J. Doyle

11:15 AM

10D.4

A Re-examination of the Relationship between Empirical Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclone and Sea Surface Temperature

Kelvin Sai-cheong Ng, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and M. H. Lee and Y. Zong

Recorded Presentation

Handout (7.9 MB)

11:30 AM

10D.5

On the nature of TC and trough-jet interactions

William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

10D.6

REVISITING TROUGH INTERACTIONS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE

Casey M. Peirano, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. L. Corbosiero

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.0 MB)

12:00 PM

10D.7

The Influence of Saharan Air Layers on Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Intensity (1987-2008)

Evan B. Forde, NOAA/AOML/OD, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr.

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Lunch

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Session 11A

Tropical Cyclone Structure I: PBL Processes

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: David Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

1:30 PM

11A.1

Time and Space Scales in the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer

Jeffrey D. Kepert, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

11A.2

Large Eddy Simulation on Entire Tropical Cyclones

Junshi Ito, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Oizumi and H. Niino

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

11A.3

Extreme Low-Level Downdrafts in Tropical Cyclones Measured by Dropwindsondes

Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and K. Hansen

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

11A.4

Using Virtual Dropsondes in Large Eddy Simulations to Better Understand Observations of Extreme Updrafts and Near-Surface Wind Speeds

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and G. H. Bryan

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

11A.5

The Role of Boundary Layer Dynamics in Secondary Eyewall Formation

Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

11A.6

The Role of the WISHE Mechanism in Secondary Eyewall Formation

Chieh-Jen Cheng, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

11A.7

Effect of Boundary Layer Roll Vortices on the Structure and Intensity of the Hurricane

Kun Gao, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

3:15 PM

11A.8

Influence of Temperature on the Beta Drift of Tropical Cyclones

Carlo Maria Corsaro, Imperial College London, LONDON, United Kingdom; and R. Toumi

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (427.8 kB)

Session 11B

Large Scale Circulation

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: William R. Boos, Yale University

1:30 PM

11B.1

Dynamical constraints on the ITCZ extent in planetary atmospheres

Sean Faulk, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA; and J. Mitchell and S. Bordoni

Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.2 MB)

1:45 PM

11B.2

Regionalization of the Hadley Circulation and implications for Australian rainfall

Hanh Nguyen, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and H. H. Hendon, E. P. Lim, E. D. Maloney, G. Boschat, B. Timbal, and C. Lucas

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

11B.3

Changes in the Hadley and Walker Circulations over the Maritime Continent

Juliane Schwendike, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and M. Reeder, G. Berry, and C. Jakob

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

11B.4

The Walker circulation, diabatic heating, and outgoing longwave radiation

Samuel N. Stechmann, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and H. R. Ogrosky

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

11B.5

Influence of Topography on the Precipitation and its Diurnal Cycle in the Maritime Continent

Haochen Tan, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray and M. Tewari

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

11B.6

On the nature of the Quasi-biweekly Oscillations of the South Asian Monsoon Anticyclone: Implications of the impermeability theorem on the macro-scale circulation of the atmosphere

Sebastián Ortega, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. Webster, H. R. Chang, and V. E. Toma

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

11B.7

Determining Periodic Behavior of Globally Averaged Tropical Jet Available Potential Energy

Lindsey E. Nytes, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

3:15 PM

11B.8

Analysis of angular momentum loss in weather prediction models

Ernesto W. Findlay, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (947.0 kB)

Session 11C

TC Remote Sensing III

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jeffrey Hawkins, Retired

1:30 PM

11C.1

Hurricane Winds from Synthetic Aperture Radar: Recent Developments

Hui Shen, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Perrie

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

11C.2

Boundary Layer Rolls Derived From SAR Wind Fields in Typhoon Megi

Astrid Alexandra Werkmeister, University of Miami - Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Key Biscayne, FL; and H. C. Graber

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

11C.3

The fall speeds and ice water paths of small and large ice species in Hurricane Arthur (2014)

Evan A. Kalina, NOAA, Miami, FL; and S. Y. Matrosov, F. D. Marks Jr., J. J. Cione, D. E. Kingsmill, M. M. Bell, R. A. Black, J. C. Hubbert, W. C. Lee, J. Vivekanandan, P. P. Dodge, and R. F. Rogers

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

11C.4

Evaluation of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV Tail Doppler Radar in Tropical Cyclones

Paul Reasor, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. F. Gamache, P. P. Dodge, and A. S. Goldstein

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

11C.5

Estimates of Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Inflow from Satellite Scatterometers

Ralph C. Foster, APL, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. Zhang and P. Black

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

11C.6

Fetch- and Duration-Limited Nature of Surface Wave Growth inside Tropical Cyclones and Microwave Remote Sensing of Hurricane Wind Speed Using Dominant Wave Parameters

Paul A. Hwang, NRL, Washington, DC; and X. Li, B. Zhang, and E. Walsh

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (4.8 MB)

3:00 PM

11C.7

Recent and Future Updates to the Operational, Satellite-Based Tropical Cyclone Products Produced at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

John F. Dostalek, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and G. Chirokova, J. Knaff, S. Longmore, R. T. DeMaria, A. B. Schumacher, and C. Sampson

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

11C.8

Tropical Cyclone Passive Microwave Precipitative-Structure-Based Intensity Estimates

Margaret E. Kieper, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby

Recorded Presentation

Session 11D

Tropical Cyclone Intensity VI: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

1:30 PM

11D.1

Diagnostics of systematic intensity errors for tropical cyclones in ECMWF forecasts

Linus Magnusson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

11D.2

Is NHC Intensity Forecast Skill Increasing?

Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. Cangialosi and P. J. Klotzbach

Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.8 MB)

2:00 PM

11D.3

Recent Improvements to NHC's Statistical-Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Models

Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Miami, FL; and G. Chirokova, J. Knaff, K. D. Musgrave, and M. L. Bozeman

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

11D.4

Evaluation and Applications of the Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) Forecasting System

Kieran Bhatia, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Nolan, A. B. Schumacher, and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

11D.5

Guidance-on-Guidance for Bifurcations in Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and H. C. Tsai

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

11D.6

Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry

3:00 PM

11D.7

Upper Bound on Hurricane Intensity Forecast Errors

Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and Z. Moon

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

11D.8

A Statistical Model for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast in Northwest Pacific Ocean Considering the Land Effect

Qinglan Li, Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China; and Y. Peng, T. Tang, C. Cao, L. Zhang, and W. Xu

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Afternoon Break

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

Session 12A

Tropical Cyclone Structure II: Precipitation Processes

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD

4:00 PM

12A.1

Physical interpretation of objectively defined tropical cyclone structural features in passive microwave satellite imagery

Joshua Cossuth, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Bankert and J. Hawkins

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

12A.2

Assessing the Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones with Infrared and Microwave Satellite Imagery

Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

12A.3

Further Evidence of the Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle

Jason Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Thorncroft, C. S. Velden, D. Nolan, B. W. Klotz, and B. A. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

12A.4

Impacts of the Diurnal Radiation Cycle on the Formation, Intensity and Structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Xiaodong Tang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.9 MB)

5:00 PM

12A.5

Characterizing the Structure of Hurricane Karl (2010) Through Analysis of High-Resolution Doppler Radar Data and Numerical Simulations

Jennifer C. DeHart, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

12A.6

Development and Evolution of Convective Bursts in WRF Simulations of TCs Dean (2007) and Bill (2009)

Andrew Todd Hazelton, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (742.4 kB)

5:30 PM

12A.7

Eyewall Buoyancy and Intensity Change in Hurricane Rita (2005)

Annette M. Foerster, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

12A.8

Wavenumber-2 Deep Convection in Tropical Cyclones

H. C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and W. Y. Cheng, E. A. Hendricks, Y. T. Yang, and M. S. Peng

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.7 MB)

Session 12B

Climate

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jin-Yi Yu, Univ. of California

4:00 PM

12B.1

Process Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models

Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and D. Kim, A. A. Wing, A. H. Sobel, H. Murakami, E. Scoccimarro, M. Zhao, and G. A. Vecchi

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

12B.2

Direct Responses of the Tropical Circulation and Tropical Cyclones to Radiative Forcing Agents

Timothy M. Merlis, McGill Univ., Montreal, Canada; and F. Viale

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

12B.3

Climate Impacts of Historical Land Cover Change in Trinidad W.I

Renée C. Elder, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and M. Georgescu

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

12B.4

Shifts of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough and its Influence on Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific

Liguang Wu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

12B.5

Spatio-temporal Patterns of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity from Reanalyses and Global Climate Models

Sarah E. Strazzo, United States Military Academy, West Point, NY

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

12B.6

Nonlocality of tropical cyclone activity in idealized climate simulations

Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and S. M. A. Abdullah and K. R. Ayadiani

Handout (2.1 MB)

12B.7

Air-Sea Interaction shapes the spurious ‘double ITCZ' in coupled climate models

5:45 PM

12B.8

Evaluation of a Regional Climate Ensemble using Self-Organizing Maps

Abigail Jaye, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Bruyere and M. W. Seefeldt

Recorded Presentation

Session 12C

Catastrophe Modeling

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation

4:00 PM

12C.1

Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Risk through the Development of a Landfall Index for the North Atlantic Basin

Ryan Truchelut, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and E. M. Staehling

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

12C.2

A New Historical Database of Tropical Cyclone Position, Intensity, and Size Parameters Optimized for Wind Risk Modeling

Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, C. Williams, D. R. Chavas, N. Dorst, J. M. Done, G. Holland, and B. Brown

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (82.7 kB)

Handout (5.1 MB)

4:30 PM

12C.3

Medium-Term Hurricane Catastrophe Risk Models and Sensitivity to Sea Surface Temperatures

Jara Imbers, Risk Management Solutions, London, United Kingdom; and P. S. Wilson and E. Bellone

4:45 PM

12C.4

Blackout Forecast Model for Hurricane Hazards - Wind and Surge

William Ramstrom, Verisk Climate, Lexington, MA; and R. Luo

Recorded Presentation

Handout (17.9 MB)

5:00 PM

12C.5

TRMM Rainfall Estimates and Typhoon Rainfall Risk in the Western North Pacific Basin

Annes V. Haseemkunju, CoreLogic, Oakland, CA; and D. F. Smith and J. Brolley

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

12C.6

Quantification and Climatic Attribution of Covariance in Tropical Cyclone Activity across Teleconnected Basins

Susan E. Tolwinski-Ward, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and D. Wang

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

12C.7

Towards a new tropical cyclone risk assessment system – The stochastic intensity and track models

Chia-Ying Lee, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

12C.8

Hybrid Real-Idealized Tropical Cyclones as a New Loss Tool

Cindy L. Bruyere, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Holland, B. W. Buckley, M. Leplastrier, P. Chan, M. Tingley, and A. Dyer

Recorded Presentation

Session 12D

Tropical Extratropical Interactions II

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin

4:00 PM

12D.1

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Upper-Tropospheric Cold Lows and Tropical CycloneTrack and Intensity Changes over Western North Pacific

Na Wei, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Li and D. L. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

12D.2

Elucidating the Character of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Trough Interactions in the Context of Intensity Change

Levi P. Cowan, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

12D.3

An Analysis of Multiple Steering Influences on the Track of Tropical Cyclone Joaquin (2015)

Philippe P. Papin, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

12D.4

A Climatological Perspective on the Role of the “Phasing” of Tropical Cyclones and Midlatitude Flow Features during Extratropical Transition

Jacopo Riboldi, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland; and C. M. Grams and M. Riemer

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

12D.5

A New Dynamic-based Metric to Explore the Time and Intensity of Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

Ajay Raghavendra, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and S. M. Milrad

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (571.8 kB)

Handout (9.4 MB)

5:15 PM

12D.6

Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Extratropical Transition and Downstream Flow Effects

Konstantine Louis Pryles, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

12D.7

The Impact of Moist Frontogenesis and Tropopause Undulation on the Intensity, Size and Structural Changes of Hurricane Sandy (2012)

Jung Hoon Shin, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

12D.8

An Analysis of the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Arthur (2014) from a JPSS Proving Ground Perspective

Michael J. Folmer, CICS, College Park, MD; and E. B. Berndt, J. B. Halverson, and J. P. Dunion

Recorded Presentation

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 20 April 2016

AMS Banquet

Location: Ocean Garden (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Thursday, 21 April 2016

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Coffee Break

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Session 13A

HFIP III

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

8:00 AM

13A.1

Evaluating the Predictability of TC Intensity Using the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System

Ryan D. Torn, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

13A.2

Examination of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Guidance with Multiple Dynamical Model Inputs

Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and J. Kaplan

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

13A.3

Evaluation of a New Ensemble Mean Weighting Technique for the 2015 GFDL Hurricane Ensemble Forecast System

Matthew J. Morin, NOAA GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. P. Marchok and M. A. Bender

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

13A.4

Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensification with an Analog Ensemble

Luca Delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Alessandrini, C. M. Rozoff, and W. E. Lewis

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

13A.5

Incorporating Global Model Uncertainty Information into the Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Model

Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

13A.6

Improving High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Prediction using a GSI-based, Cycled, Dual Resolution Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System for HWRF: system description and experiment results

Xu Lu, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (711.5 kB)

9:30 AM

13A.7

Towards Improving Hurricane Vortex Initialization Through Assimilation of Radar and All-sky Satellite Observations

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

13A.8

Direct Assimilation of Satellite-Derived AMVs into HWRF: First Results

William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, V. Tallapragada, and J. M. Daniels

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

Tropical Cyclone Rainbands and Precipitation I

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University

8:00 AM

13B.1

Formation of tropical cyclone spiral rainbands in idealized numerical simulations

Diamilet Perez-Betancourt, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

8:15 AM

13B.2

A Numerical Study of Spiral Rainbands in Typhoon Chanchu (2006)

Yongqing Wang, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, KLME, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; and M. Cai, W. Hogsett, and X. Ge

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

13B.3

Outer Rainband Formation in a Sheared Tropical Cyclone

Qingqing Li, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

13B.4

Mobile Radar Observations of Vortex Rossby Waves in Three Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

A. Addison Alford, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff and D. P. Betten

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

13B.5

Simulated and Observed Gravity Waves Radiating from Tropical Cyclones and Prospects for Remote Monitoring

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and J. A. Zhang

9:15 AM

13B.6

Precipitation Microphysics Characteristics of a Typhoon Matmo (2014) Rainband after Landfall over Eastern China based on Polarimetric Radar Observations

Mingjun Wang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and K. Zhao and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

13B.7

Validation of Numerical Hurricane Simulation Microphysical Fingerprints using Polarimetric Radar

Bonnie R. Brown, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. M. Bell and A. Frambach

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

13B.8

Using Shape Metrics to Compare Observed and Simulated Reflectivity During the Landfall of Hurricane Isabel (2003)

Corene J. Matyas, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and S. E. Zick and J. Tang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (2.9 MB)

Session 13C

Tropical Waves

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John L. Beven, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC

8:00 AM

13C.1

Identifying convectively coupled equatorial waves using theoretical wave eigenvectors

H. Reed Ogrosky, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

13C.2

Extraction and classification of convectively coupled convective waves through eigendecomposition of Koopman operators

Joanna Maja Slawinska, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and D. Giannakis

8:30 AM

13C.3

Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves: From Linear Theory to Global Models

Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and M. J. Herman, D. Raymond, P. Bechtold, and G. Kiladis

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

13C.4

Dependence of Convectively Coupled Gravity Waves on Convective Representation

I-Kuan Hu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. Song and B. E. Mapes

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

13C.5

Damping of Gravity Waves by Radiation to the Stratosphere

Jacob P. Edman, University of California, Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps

Recorded Presentation

13C.6

Investigating the convectively coupled MRG and EIG n=0 continuum

9:30 AM

13C.7

Boreal summer synoptic-scale waves over the western North Pacific in multi-model simulations

Haikun Zhao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and X. Jiang and L. Wu

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

13C.8

Decoupling of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves: Super Cloud Clusters versus Moist Kelvin Waves

Joaquin E. Blanco, University of Miami / RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (696.8 kB)

Handout (4.4 MB)

Session 13D

TC Genesis III

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Alan Brammer, SUNY

8:00 AM

13D.1

Development and Nondevelopment of Binary Mesoscale Vortices into Tropical Cyclones in Idealized Numerical Experiments

David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

13D.2

A Coupled Moist Entropy and Angular Momentum Framework for Tropical Cyclogenesis Investigations

Brian Tang, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

13D.3

A Study on the Influences of Low-Frequency Vorticity on Tropical Cyclone Formation Based on Systematic Model Simulations

C-S. Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. H. Hsieh, C. H. Sui, and H. F. Teng

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

13D.4

Spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in rotating radiative-convective equilibrium simulations

Allison A. Wing, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and S. J. Camargo and A. H. Sobel

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

13D.5

Modification of MJO and Genesis of Supercyclone Pam in March 2015 by the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

Masuo Nakano, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; and H. Kubota, T. Miyakawa, T. Nasuno, and M. Satoh

13D.6

Roles of Tropical Waves in the Genesis of Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

13D.7

Reinvigoration of moist convection in the early development of Super Typhoon Megi (2010)

9:45 AM

13D.8

Deepening Process of an Incipient Vortex of Tropical Cyclone Simulated in a Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Tomoe Nasuno, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and H. Yamada, M. Nakano, H. Kubota, M. Sawada, and R. Yoshida

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Morning Break

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Session 14A

HFIP IV

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Daniel Melendez, NOAA/NWS; Avichal Mehra, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

10:30 AM

14A.1

A Multi-Scale Modeling System for Improved Hurricane Prediction

Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, T. Quirino, F. Marks, and R. Atlas

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

14A.2

Performance of Basin-scale HWRF within the Marsupial Paradigm

Mark A. Boothe, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

14A.3

Investigating Major Hurricane Joaquin Track Forecasts using the Basin-Scale HWRF

Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

14A.4

A modified vertical diffusion scheme and its impacts on numerical prediction of landfalling hurricanes with HWRF

Feimin Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT ; and Z. Pu

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

14A.5

The Importance of Accurately Representing the Surface Momentum Flux Driving Upper Ocean Currents for Coupled Hurricane Prediction

G. R. Halliwell Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, J. Dong, and H. S. Kim

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

14A.6

Ocean Model Impact Study for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting: An HFIP Initiative

Hyun-Sook Kim, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. R. Halliwell Jr., V. Tallapragada, P. G. Black, S. Chen, J. J. Cione, I. Ginis, B. Liu, L. Miller, S. Jayne, E. R. Sanabia, L. K. Shay, E. W. Uhlhorn, and L. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

14A.7

Tropical cyclone forecast verification: Some new ideas

Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, T. L. Jensen, B. G. Brown, S. Bao, L. R. Bernardet, and K. M. Newman

Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

Tropical Cyclone Rainbands and Precipitation II

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ming-Jen Yang, National Taiwan Univ.

10:30 AM

14B.1

Evolving Synoptic-Scale Precipitation Patterns in U.S. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Stephanie E. Zick, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and C. J. Matyas

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (616.6 kB)

10:45 AM

14B.2

Ensemble Variability in Rainfall Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)

Molly B. Smith, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn, K. L. Corbosiero, and P. Pegion

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

14B.3

The Possible Role of Land Surface in the Rapid Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones

Saiprasanth Bhalachandran, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, India; and S. Subramanian, R. Nadimpalli, S. Gopalakrishnan, K. K. Osuri, F. D. Marks Jr., U. C. Mohanty, and D. Niyogi

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

14B.4

Impact of improved initial land surface conditions on HWRF simulations and HWRF coupled streamflow routing model

Subashini Subramanian, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and Y. Xia, Y. Wu, M. B. Ek, V. Tallapragada, and D. Niyogi

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

14B.5

Extreme Floods and their Relationship with Tropical Cyclones in Puerto Rico

Jose J. Hernandez Ayala, University of Florida, Gainesvillle, FL

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

14B.6

Tropical Storm Erika and the Commonwealth of Dominica

Alison D. Nugent, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

14B.7

Factors Influencing Orographic Precipitation for Uniform Flow over an Idealized Mountain: Variations in Basic Wind Speed and CAPE

Gökhan Sever, ANL, Argonne, IL; and Y. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation

Session 14C

MJO and Low Frequency Convection

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

10:30 AM

14C.1

Modeling the MJO in a cloud-resolving model with parameterized large-scale dynamics: vertical structure, radiation, and horizontal advection of dry air

Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and J. Nie

10:45 AM

14C.2

Convective interactions with the large-scale environment: Differences and similarities between the MJO and the Kelvin wave

Fiaz Ahmed, Texas A&M University, Bryan, TX; and C. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

14C.3

Balanced Dynamics in the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Sharon Sessions, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. Sentic, Z. Fuchs, and D. Raymond

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

14C.4

Role of Circumnavigating signal and Mesoscale Waves in the Initiation and Propagation of the October DYNAMO MJO event in a cloud-permitting model

Sourav Taraphdar, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and S. Wang

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

14C.5

Time Scales of the Shallow-to-Deep Convective Transition at MJO Initiation

Weixin Xu, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

14C.6

Thermodynamic Modes of Variability over the Maritime Continent

Jennifer Bukowski, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

14C.7

The Impact of Solar on the Convection dipole over the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean

Ziniu Xiao, Institute of Atmospheric Physics/CAS Beijing China, beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.6 MB)

Session 14D

TC Genesis IV

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Daniel J. Halperin, SUNY

10:30 AM

14D.1

Regional Variations in the Rate Tropical Depressions Become Tropical Cyclones

Kevin J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and H. Ye and R. A. Dare

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.9 MB)

10:45 AM

14D.2

Validation of Operational pre/potential Tropical Cyclones (pTCs) Using Model Diagnostics

Michael Natoli, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Fiorino

Recorded Presentation

14D.3

Evaluation of Track Forecast Guidance from Global Models for Pre-genesis Disturbances

11:15 AM

14D.4

Systematic Characterization of Cyclogenesis in High Resolution Climate Model Simulations

Yunjie Liu, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; and K. Kashinath, T. A. O'Brien, and M. Prabhat

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

14D.5

Lagrangian boundaries offer a frame-independent view of vortex closure and an exact measurement of transport

Blake Rutherford, NWRA, Redmond, WA

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

14D.6

Why did the storm Ex-Gaston (2010) fail to redevelop during the PREDICT experiment?

Thomas M. Freismuth, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and B. Rutherford, M. A. Boothe, and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

14D.7

Tropical low formation and over land and sea as seen in the ECMWF analyses

Gerard Kilroy, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith, M. T. Montgomery, S. Müller, S. Tang, B. Lynch, and C. Earl-Spurr

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Lunch

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Session 15A

Tropical Cyclone Structure III: Surface Wind Field Structure

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric W. Uhlhorn, AIR-Worldwide

1:30 PM

15A.1

20+ Years of HWind: Where it Began and Where it's Going

Mark Powell, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

15A.2

Development of Global Statistical-Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii and MSLP Guidance

John Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and G. Chirokova, C. Sampson, and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

15A.3

A Statistical Prediction Scheme for Integrated Kinetic Energy of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Vasu Misra, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. Kozar

Recorded Presentation

15A.4

Impact of ocean warming on the tropical cyclone size and destructive potential

2:30 PM

15A.5

Size Matters: Assessing the Predictive Skill of TC Size Forecasts with a new Hurricane Wind Climatology

Falko Judt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

15A.6

Hurricane Cost is Largely Controlled by the Vertical Wind Shear

Shuai Wang, Imperial College London, LONDON, United Kingdom; and R. Toumi

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (466.0 kB)

3:00 PM

15A.7

Analysis of Environments Associated with TC Size and Structure Changes in the North Atlantic Basin

Diana R. Stovern, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

15A.8

The tropical cyclone wind field and its variability: perspective from the outside in

Daniel R. Chavas, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and N. Lin and K. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B

Ed Zipser Session: Celebrating 50+ Years In The Field

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Daniel J. Cecil, NASA/MSFC

CoChair: Jonathan Zawislak, NOAA

1:30 PM

15B.1

Legacy of Precipitation Feature Database from Satellite Passive Microwave radiometer and precipitation radar Observations

Chuntao Liu, Texas A&M, Corpus Christi, TX; and D. J. Cecil and S. W. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

15B.2

From the Mesoscale to the Global Scale: Ed Zipser's Intuition and Its Importance to Tropical Meteorology and Climate

Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and F. Ahmed and A. Funk

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

15B.3

What Has Been Inspired by Onions and Diamonds in Soundings? - A review

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Kerns

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

15B.4

Entrainment, Mixing and Latent Heating in Tropical Deep Convection

Susan C. van den Heever, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. McGee and C. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15B.5

An Overview of Ed Zipser's Latent Impact on Cloud Modeling Developments at NASA

Karen I. Mohr, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

15B.6

The Importance of Shallow and Moderate Precipitation in the Upshear Quadrants to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification as Derived from 14 Years of TRMM Data

Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and C. Tao

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

15B.7

A Global Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Lightning

Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. Xu and W. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

15B.8

From The Line Islands Experiment To Normal Mode Rossby-Haurwitz Waves

Roland A. Madden, NCAR Emeritus, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (846.2 kB)

Session 15C

Climate Change

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kerry Emanuel, MIT

1:30 PM

15C.1

Change in Ocean Subsurface Environment to Suppress Tropical Cyclone Intensification under Global Warming

Ping Huang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and I. I. Lin, C. Chou, and R. H. Huang

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.3 MB)

1:45 PM

15C.2

Future Changes in Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Wave Climatology

James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Ge, C. L. Bruyere, G. J. Holland, and J. Pappas

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

15C.3

Understanding the Response of the Seasonal Cycle of Temperature and Precipitation to Global Warming

Martin S. Singh, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and M. P. Byrne, J. G. Dwyer, and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

15C.4

The future of the low-level jets in northern South America and the Caribbean

Paola A. Arias, Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia; and J. P. Sierra and S. C. Vieira

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.5 MB)

2:30 PM

15C.5

The Response of Land-falling Tropical Cyclone Characteristics to Projected Climate Change in Northeast Australia

Chelsea. L. Parker, Brown University, Providence, RI; and A. H. Lynch and C. Bruyere

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

15C.6

Past and Projected Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Exposure

James P. Kossin, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Madison, WI; and K. Emanuel and S. Camargo

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

15C.7

Tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using high-resolution CAM5

Kevin A. Reed, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. T. Bacmeister and M. F. Wehner

Recorded Presentation

15C.8

What cause the slow-down and speed-up of global warming trend?

Session 15D

Numerical Modeling III: Probabilistic/Initialization Methods and Evaluation

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric A. Hendricks, NRL

1:30 PM

15D.1

A study of ensemble extend-range TC track forecast

Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou and J. Peng

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

15D.3

Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecasting at the Met Office: Upgrades to the MOGREPS Model and TC Products, and an Evaluation of the Benefit of Multi-model Ensembles

Helen A. Titley, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Stretton

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (500.3 kB)

2:00 PM

15D.4

Prediction and predictability of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) revealed through convection-permitting real-time deterministic and ensemble forecasts

Yonghui Weng, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and C. Melhauser

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.2 MB)

2:15 PM

15D.5

A multivariate Visualization for Uncertainties in Hurricane Model Ensemble

Keqin Wu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. Zhang, W. Wang, and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15D.6

A novel tropical cyclone dynamic initialization technique using high temporal and spatial density atmospheric motion vectors and airborne field campaign data

Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. M. Bell, R. L. Elsberry, C. S. Velden, and D. J. Cecil

2:45 PM

15D.7

Applications of a New Tropical Cyclone Initialization Scheme on Improving TC Intensity, Structure and Track Forecasts

Yi-leng Chen, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and C. Y. Chen and H. V. Nguyen

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

15D.8

Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust During Hurricane Helene (2006) Using an Adjoint

Daniel Holdaway, NASA, Greenbelt, MD

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Afternoon Break

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

4:00 PM-5:45 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Poster Session

Aerosols

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

106

Saharan Air Layer Dust Loading: Effects on Convective Strength in Tropical Cloud Clusters

Randall J. Hergert, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and J. M. Collins, J. P. Dunion, and C. H. Paxton

107

Aerosol Dynamics and their Contribution to Hurricane Sandy

Andrew T. Fontenot, Lake Charles, LA; and H. EL-Askary

Manuscript (302.1 kB)

Handout (713.5 kB)

108

Ten-year Trends in African Dust Episodes and its Effects on the Bimodal Rainfall Patterns across the Northeast Caribbean

Odalys Martínez-Sánchez, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras Campus, San Juan, PR

109

Modeling the Effects of Dust-Radiative Forcing on the Movement of Hurricane Helene (2006)

Shu-Hua Chen, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and Y. C. Liu, T. Nathan, C. Davis, R. Torn, N. sowa, C. T. Cheng, and J. P. Chen

110

Indirect Effect of African Dust Particles on Cloud Microphysical and Chemical Properties in a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest in the Caribbean

Elvis Torres-Delgado, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR

111

Chemical and Molecular Characterization of Aerosols in the Caribbean During African Dust Events: Focusing on Fungal Content

Gilmarie Santos-Figueroa, University of Puerto Rico, San Juan, PR; and B. Bolaños-Rosero and O. L. Mayol-Bracero

112

A Study of Black Carbon Concentrations over Puerto Rico

Aranxa M. Martínez Cortés, University of Puerto Rico-Río Piedras, San Juan, PR

Poster Session

Climate

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

113

Impact of Central American Gap-Winds on Intrabasin Variability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO

Dan Fu, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and P. Chang and C. M. Patricola

114

Improved Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Responses to ENSO in the Western North Pacific in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model

Wei Zhang, Princeton AOS/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. Vecchi, H. Murakami, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, A. Rosati, S. Underwood, W. Anderson, L. Harris, R. Gudgel, S. J. Lin, G. Villarini, and J. H. Chen

115

Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Regional Hadley Circulation over the Northeastern Pacific

Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

116

How well do Global Climate Models detect tropical cyclones considering cyclone phase?

Sinil Yang, Pukyung National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. H. Oh

Manuscript (104.3 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

117

Tropical precipitation changes in response to thermodynamic forcing

Ji-Jen Sun, Taipei, Taiwan

118

The Role of Atlantic Versus Pacific Variability on Caribbean Drought

Elinor Martin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

119

IBTrACS: Status and planned improvements

Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and H. J. Diamond, J. P. Kossin, C. J. Schreck III, S. Applequist, and M. C. Kruk

120

Thermodynamic Climate Change and its Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

121

Analysis of hurricane variability in downscaled tropical cyclone simulations

123

The Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity to Atmospheric Temperature Perturbations

Timothy M. Merlis, McGill Univ., Montreal, Canada; and L. L. Davis

Multidecadal-scale Adjustment of the Ocean Mixed Layer Heat Budget of the Tropical and Subtropical Oceans

124

The climate sensitivity with uniform increased SST

Ping-Gin Chiu, Acadmica Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu and C. Y. Tu

Handout (3.4 MB)

Poster Session

Monsoons

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

126

Spectral-trend estimation using incomplete data: application to Indian monsoon depressions

Naftali Y. Cohen, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and W. R. Boos, M. Gehne, and G. N. Kiladis

127

An Evaluation of the 2015 “Belg” Rains in Ethiopia

Steven J. Fuhrman, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD

Handout (1.5 MB)

128

Comparative assessment of the roles of diabatic processes in the Indian Monsoon System

Samson Hagos, PNNL/DOE, Richland, WA; and L. R. Leung, M. Ashfaq, J. Lu, and W. K. M. Lau

129

Implementation of the Stochastic Multicloud Model in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2)

Bidyut B. Goswami, New York Univ., Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and R. Phani, B. Khouider, P. Mukhopadhyay, and A. J. Majda

130

Mechanisms of Delayed Monsoon Onset with Warming

Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and T. M. Merlis and S. Pascale

131

On the Structure and Dynamics of Indian Monsoon Depressions

Kieran M. R. Hunt, Univeristy of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.3 MB)

132

Tracking of Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in Climate model Simulations

Praveen Veluthedathekuzhiyil, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and S. Sukumaran and A. Ravindran

133

Tropical and Extratropical Controls of Gulf of California Surges and Summertime Precipitation over the Southwestern U.S

Salvatore Pascale, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. Bordoni

Poster Session

Numerical Modeling

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

134

The Upgrade of GRAPES_TYM in 2015 and Its Performance and Problems

Suhong Ma, NWPD/NMC/Beijing, Beijing, China

Handout (5.6 MB)

135

The Impact of Assimilating Enhanced AMVS, Dropsonding Observations, and HIRAD Data on Analyses and Forecasts of Hurricanes Edouard and Gonzalo (2014)

Shixuan Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu, C. S. Velden, and D. J. Cecil

136

Towards Improved Intensity Prediction: An Overview of Recent COAMPS-TC Advancements

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, J. R. Moskaitis, S. Chen, E. A. Hendricks, H. Jin, Y. Jin, P. A. Reinecke, and S. Wang

137

A New High-Resolution Operational NWP system for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in SW Indian Ocean

Olivier Bousquet, Météo-France / LACy, Sainte Clotilde, Reunion; and D. Barbary, S. Bielli, G. Faure, M. D. Leroux, and S. Langlade

138

Telescopic Nesting and its Impact on Hurricane Forecasts

139

Effects of Ice Clouds on Barotropic and Baroclinic Processes during TOGA COARE

Guoqing Zhai, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; and X. Li

Handout (693.4 kB)

140

Validation of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System Forced by Gridded Tropical Cyclone Winds

Alex Gibbs, NOAA, Honolulu, HI

141

New Methods of Evaluating NWP Tropical Cyclone Depiction Using the ARCHER Algorithm

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, S. Hristova-Veleva, and T. P. Shen

142

Model evaluation of HWRF simulations for Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Lin Zhu, IMSG NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. S. Kim, S. Abarca, and V. Tallapragada

143

Validation of of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System Forced by Gridded Tropical Cyclone Winds

Alex Gibbs, NOAA, Honolulu, HI; and P. Santos, A. Vanderwesthuysen, and R. Padilla

144

FV3 and the Next Generation Global Prediction System

Shannon L. Rees, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ

Handout (2.2 MB)

145

Orographic Effects on Track Deflection of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and S. H. Chen and L. Liu

146

Examination of adaptive and static mesh refinement for idealized tropical cyclone simulations in a global shallow water model

Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. Kopera and F. X. Giraldo

Factors Important to Automated Vortex Tracking in Numerical Model Output

Poster Session

Observing Systems and Strategies

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

147

On the use of CYGNSS to observe convectively driven near-surface winds in tropical precipitation systems

Timothy J. Lang, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and T. Castillo, K. Hoover, J. Mecikalski, X. Li, and T. Chronis

Handout (3.6 MB)

148

Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) Calibration Methodology

Derek P., Starkenburg, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Ruf

149

The development of a U.S. geostationary microwave sounder

Bjorn Lambrigtsen, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

Handout (18.7 MB)

150

Further Studies of Observational Undersampling in Flight-level and SFMR Observations

Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML, University of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan and E. W. Uhlhorn

Handout (3.2 MB)

Poster Session

Seasonal Prediction and Interannual Variability

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

151

Interannual and intraseasonal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the eastern North Pacific

Haikun Zhao, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and G. B. Raga

152

2015 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season

Jennifer M. Collins, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL; and C. Mehta, D. Roache, and C. H. Paxton

153

Predictability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in the GFDL HiRAM Model

Zhuo Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. Zhang, M. S. Peng, J. H. Chen, and S. J. Lin

154

Relating Mid-Level Meridional Water Vapor Transport by Stationary Eddies to Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Travis J. Elless, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. N. Stevenson, B. Tang, and R. D. Torn

155

The Impacts of Column Water Vapor Variability on Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity

Isaac E. Hankes, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and A. Marinaro

Handout (1.2 MB)

156

Mechanisms Responsible for Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the South Indian Ocean

Kevin K. W. Cheung, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales, Australia

157

Dominant Role of Subtropical Pacific Warming on the Extreme 2015 Central Pacific Hurricane Season

Hiroyuki Murakami, Princeton AOS/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, S. Underwood, R. Gudgel, X. Yang, L. Jia, F. Zeng, K. Paffendorf, and W. Zhang

Poster Session

Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

158

Temporal characteristics of Dvorak analyses for pre-genesis and non-developing disturbances

Joshua Cossuth, NRL, Monterey, CA

159

How does monsoon trough intraseasonal oscillation affect tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific?

160

The Distribution and Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature at Tropical Cyclone Genesis across Ocean Basins

Cécile Defforge, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and T. M. Merlis

Manuscript (106.9 kB)

Handout (149.7 kB)

161

The Development and Breakdown of a Central American Gyre: A Precursor to Hurricane Patricia

Andrew S. Levine, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL; and P. Papin and L. F. Bosart

162

The Genesis of Tropical Storm Matthew (2010) as Observed during the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Field Experiment

Louis L. Lussier III, NCAR, Broomfield, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, T. M. Freismuth, and M. A. Boothe

163

Sumatra Lee Vortices and Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Indian Ocean

Caitlin M. Fine, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson, P. E. Ciesielski, and R. K. Taft

164

Towards Development of a Climate Theory of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

S. Sharmila, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh

Handout (1.6 MB)

165

Examining Trends in Satellite-Detected Overshooting Tops as a Potential Predictor of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Sarah M. Griffin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. P. Dunion, and A. B. Schumacher

166

The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI)

Jason Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Kaplan, A. B. Schumacher, J. Cossuth, K. D. Musgrave, and P. Leighton

167

An Examination of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Composites of NCEP GFS Deterministic Model Analyses for the Period of 2011-2015

Andrew B. Penny, Systems Research Group / National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi, T. B. Kimberlain, and M. J. Brennan

168

High Resolution Modeling of Lower Tropospheric Subsidence Warming in MCSs and its Role in Tropical Cyclogenesis

Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

169

Idealized Simulations of Monsoon Depressions

Poster Session

Tropical Cyclone Intensity II

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Precipitation Properties Observed during Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

170

Trends in Lifetime Maximum Intensity of North American Tropical Cyclones

171

Diagnosing large-scale tropical cyclone model moisture and exploring impacts on track and intensity

Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

172

The contribution of structure and evolution of potential vorticity tower to the intensity change of Hurricane Wilma (2005)

Wei Zhong, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and S. Liu and H. Lu

Manuscript (69.6 kB)

173

The Impact of Lightning on Intensity Forecasts Using the HWRF model: Idealized Tropical Cyclone

Keren Rosado, GSD, Washington, DC; and V. Tallapragada, G. S. Jenkins, and L. Zhu

Manuscript (406.3 kB)

174

An Expanded Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity Framework

Alex Kowaleski, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

175

Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry

176

Determining Uncertainty in Historical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analyses

Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and M. C. Kruk, K. R. Knapp, C. J. Schreck III, J. P. Kossin, and P. W. Thorne

Handout (598.6 kB)

Analysis of the sudden northward track change and rapid weakening of Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015)

Poster Session

Tropical Cyclone Structure II

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

177

Structure and intensity changes in Hurricanes Ophelia and Katrina (2005): Coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling and RAINEX observations

Manuscript (3.1 MB)

178

Comparing Rainfall of Landfall Tropical Cyclones on Spatial Mixed and Fractional Mixed Landuse Using Natural Run Simulation

Jingyin Tang, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and Y. Wang and C. J. Matyas

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

179

Observed Atlantic Hurricane Boundary Layer Structural Asymmetries with Respect to Environmental Conditions

Kyle Ahern, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa and R. E. Hart

180

Sensitivity of Environmental Predictors to Integrated Kinetic Energy Tendency in Atlantic Hurricanes

Michael E. Kozar, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and V. Misra

181

Investigating Size Changes of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic using the GEFS/R

Ethan K. Smith, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie and K. M. Wood

182

Sensitivity of hurricane intensity and structure to planetary boundary layer height in HWRF ensemble forecasts

Hua Chen, NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and J. A. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and Z. Zhang

183

Idealized Modeling of the Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Cyclones

Erika L. Navarro, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

Poster Session

Tropical Cyclones

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

184

Typhoon Kinematic and Thermodynamic Boundary Layer Structure from Dropsonde Composites

Jie Ming, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and J. A. Zhang and R. F. Rogers

Handout (968.1 kB)

185

Naval Research Laboratory Tropical Cyclone Demonstration Web Page: Plans and Upgrades

Kim A. Richardson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Bankert and J. Cossuth

186

A Composite Analysis of the Environmental Memory of Tropical Cyclones

Benjamin A. Schenkel, University of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK; and R. E. Hart

Handout (8.0 MB)

187

Development of Real-Time Multi-Model Verification Website for Tropical Cyclones

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA

On the spatial patterns of intense tropical cyclones: A case study of Charleston, South Carolina (USA)

188

Moist static energy budget analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in climate models

189

Re-Analysis of the 1964 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Brenden M. Moses, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

190

Extended-Range Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by the ECMWF 32-Day Ensemble and its Reforecast Data for Water Resources Management

Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry

191

Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Motion and Surrounding Flow with Reference to the Maximum Sustained Wind and Longest Radius

Kazuaki Yasunaga, Univ. of Toyama, Toyama, Japan; and T. Miyajima

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (2.0 MB)

192

Effects of Landfall Location and Approach Angle of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone over a Long Mountain Range

Liping Liu, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and S. H. Chen

193

Tropical Storm Kyle (2002) and Cold-Air Damming: Their Interactions and Impacts on Heavy Rainfall in the Carolinas

José M. García-Rivera, I. M. Systems Group, Rockville, MD; and Y. L. Lin and Y. Rastigejev

Poster Session

Tropical Waves

Location: Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

194

Using Composite Analysis and Cloud Type Switching to Describe the Interaction between African Easterly Waves and Convective Activities

Hilawe Semunegus, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and A. Mekonnen and C. J. Schreck III

195

Theoretical Framework for the Destabilization of African Easterly Waves by Saharan Mineral Dust Aerosols

Terry Nathan, Univ. of California, Davis, CA; and D. Grogan and S. H. Chen

196

The relationship between the direction of the diurnal rainfall migration and the ambient wind over the Southern Sumatra Island

Atsushi Yanase, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and K. Yasunaga and H. Masunaga

Handout (1.9 MB)

5:45 PM-6:45 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Panel Discussion 1

Panel Discussion: "TC: To be or not to be?"

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderator: Robert Hart, Florida State University

Panelists: Michael J. Brennan, NHC; Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT; David S Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New South Wales

5:45 PM

90 Second Overview #1 - Robert Hart

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

90 Second Overview #2 - Michael Brennan

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

90 Second Overview #3 - Brian Strahl

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

90 Second Overview #4 - Elizabeth Ritchie

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

90 Second Overview #5 - David Nolan

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

90 Second Overview #6 - Kerry Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Thursday, 21 April 2016

Session 16

Ed Zipser Session: Celebrating 50+ Years In The Field

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Chuntao Liu, Texas A&M

CoChair: Sarah Bang, University of Utah

7:00 PM

Introduction and Remarks by Ed Zipser

E. J. Zipser, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

7:20 PM

16.1

Zipping Up

Michael Garstang, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

Recorded Presentation

7:40 PM

16.3

Updrafts in Deep Tropical Convection

Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Recorded Presentation

8:00 PM

16.2

Ed Zipser’s Global Influence on the Direction of Meteorology

Robert A. Houze Jr., PNNL, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

8:20 PM

Remote Contributions and Audience Participation

Recorded Presentation

Friday, 22 April 2016

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 22 April 2016

Coffee Break

Location: Ponce Foyer (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

8:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 22 April 2016

Session 17A

Tropical Cyclone Structure IV: Secondary Eyewall Formation/Eyewall Replacement Cycles

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

8:00 AM

17A.1

Mechanisms of Secondary Eyewall Formation in Tropical Cyclones

Jiahua Guo, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

17A.2

Secondary Eyewall Formation in an Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulation – Further Examination of the Balanced and Unbalanced Dynamics

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. Wang and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

17A.3

Diagnosis of Secondary Eyewall Formation Mechanisms in Hurricane Igor (2010)

Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

8:45 AM

17A.4

Secondary Eyewall Formation for Idealized and Real Tropical Cyclones in HWRF

Bryce Paul Tyner, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and P. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

17A.5

Simulation of Eyewall Replacement Cycles for Hurricane Wilma (2005)

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, D. L. Zhang, and J. D. Doyle

9:15 AM

17A.6

Dynamics and predictability of secondary eyewall formation in sheared tropical cyclones

Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and D. Tao, Y. Q. Sun, and J. D. Kepert

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

17A.7

The large outer eyewall of long-lived concentric eyewall tropical cyclones

Yi-Ting Yang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. C. Kuo, T. Y. Hsu, E. A. Hendricks, and M. S. Peng

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.6 MB)

9:45 AM

17A.8

On the Coupling of Convective Updrafts Prior to Secondary Eyewall Formation in Hurricane Katrina (2005)

José M. García-Rivera, I. M. Systems Group, Rockville, MD; and Y. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

17A.9

Doppler Radar Analysis of Triple Eyewalls in Typhoon Usagi

Kun Zhao, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and Q. lin, W. Lee, Y. Q. Sun, and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

17A.10

Inner Core Radar Structures in Hurricane Patricia 2015

Session 17B

Intraseasonal Variability III

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; Xianan Jiang, JIFRESSE/UCLA and JPL/Caltech

8:00 AM

17B.1

Seasonal Onset of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and its Relation to the Southeastern Indian Ocean Cooling

Ayako Seiki, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Nagura, T. Hasegawa, and K. Yoneyama

8:15 AM

17B.2

Destabilization of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Present and Future Climates

Brandon O. Wolding, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

17B.3

Western Hemisphere Extratropical Circulation and the Indian Ocean MJO

Paul E. Roundy, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

17B.4

Intra-seasonal Oscillation and Typhoon Activity during PALAU Intensive Observation around the Tropical Western Pacific

Ryuichi Shirooka, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and B. Geng, J. Suzuki, H. Kubota, M. Katsumata, T. Nasuno, T. Shinoda, and H. Uyeda

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

17B.5

Relative Feedbacks between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclones

Lawrence C. Gloeckler, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation

17B.6

The Emerging and Terminating States of Madden-Julian Oscillation: Kinematics and Thermodynamics

9:30 AM

17B.7

Moistening processes in the observed and simulated MJOs during DYNAMO/CINDY

Kai-Chih Tseng, NTU, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Sui

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

17B.8

Effects of Moisture Feedback in Frictional Coupled Kelvin-Rossby Wave Model and Implication to Madden-Julian Oscillation

Fei Liu, NOAA/ESRL/NESII, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

17B.9

Diagnosing moistening processes of the November DYNAMO MJO by Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Emily M. Riley Dellaripa, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney and S. C. van den Heever

Recorded Presentation

10:15 AM

17B.10

ENSO Modulation of MJO Event Variability in Observations, GCMs, and the Skeleton Model

Justin P. Stachnik, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. E. Waliser, A. J. Majda, S. N. Stechmann, S. Thual, and H. R. Ogrosky

Recorded Presentation

Session 17C

Operations and Landfall I

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NWS/NHC

8:00 AM

17C.1

The Arbitrary Definition of the Current Atlantic Major Hurricane Landfall Drought

Robert E. Hart, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and D. R. Chavas and M. P. Guishard

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

17C.2

Global Tropical Cyclone Landfall Statistics

Zachary Shaw, Columbia University, New York, NY; and C. Y. Lee, A. H. Sobel, M. K. Tippett, and S. J. Camargo

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

17C.3

A Proposed Adjustment for the Advanced Dvorak Technique during Extratropical Transition

Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and T. L. Olander, C. S. Velden, and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

17C.4

Upgrades to the ARCHER TC Center-Fixing Scheme and Real-Time Applications

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. Kossin, and D. C. Herndon

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

17C.5

Comparison of an Integrated Method of Tropical Cyclone Analysis using Microwave Imagery and Data with Current Methods of Analysis in the Western North Pacific

Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.1 MB)

9:15 AM

17C.6

Operational Forecasting at the Canadian Hurricane Center

Chris Fogarty, EC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

9:30 AM

17C.7

Storm Surge Predictability

Kate Fossell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, C. A. Davis, C. Snyder, and R. Morss

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

17C.8

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

John A. Troutman, California University of Pennsylvania, California, PA

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

17C.9

Hurricane Storm Surge Risk Assessment for the Yucatan State Coastal Area

Wilmer Rey, National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), Sisal, Yucatan, Mexico; and P. Salles, E. T. Mendoza, M. A. Trejo, K. Zhang, Y. C. Teng, C. L. Fritz, and J. R. Rhome

Recorded Presentation

17C.10

Application and Validation of a Coupled Storm Surge plus Waves Modeling System at the National Hurricane Center

Session 17D

Numerical Modeling IV: Operational Forecasts and Evaluation

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Falko Judt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

8:00 AM

17D.1

A Preliminary Study on the Application of High-frequency Cycling Updating Approaches to the GRAPES-TYM Model System

Xiaowei Tan, Numerical Weather Prediction Center of CMA, Beijing, Beijing, China

8:15 AM

17D.2

Evaluation of the NAVGEM analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones and comparison with GFS analyses and WRF high-resolution numerical simulations

Yafan Yu, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City; and Z. Pu and C. A. Reynolds

8:30 AM

17D.3

The Importance of Storm-storm Interactions in the Real-time Tropical Cyclone Forecast System

Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and G. J. Alaka Jr. and S. G. Gopalakrishnan

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

17D.4

Telescopic Nesting and Impact on Hurricane Forecast Skill

Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. Trahan, Y. C. Kwon, V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, Z. Janjic, Z. Zhang, and D. Jovic

9:00 AM

17D.5

Evaluation of Uniformly High-Resolution Hurricane Forecasts Using NMM-B

Javier Delgado, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. Gopalakrishnan, R. Atlas, T. Quirino, and S. W. Diaz

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

17D.6

The Capability of regional NMMB for Rapid Intensification Forecast: Insights from Hurricane Patricia

Weiguo Wang, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, S. Trahan, T. Black, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, M. Tong, J. Sippel, S. Abarca, D. Sheinin, H. S. Kim, K. Wu, and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

17D.7

Effects of boundary layer vertical diffusion on forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensification

Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers, V. Tallapragada, and W. Wang

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

17D.8

An Analysis of Model Track Forecast Errors in Hurricane Joaquin (2015)

Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL; and A. B. Penny and S. J. Majumdar

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

17D.9

Met Office Global Model tropical cyclone performance following a major model upgrade and new initialisation technique

Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (546.7 kB)

10:15 AM

17D.10

Convective-Scale Simulations of Tropical Cyclones with the Met Office Unified Model

Christopher Short, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and S. Webster, J. Heming, and J. Petch

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Friday, 22 April 2016

Morning Break

Location: Ponce Foyer (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

11:00 AM-1:30 PM: Friday, 22 April 2016

Session 18A

Tropical Cyclone Structure V: 3-D Structure

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Paul Reasor, NOAA

11:00 AM

18A.1

Tropical Cyclone Warm Core Structures as Observed by Recent High-Altitude Aircraft and Satellites

Derrick Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

18A.2

Evolution of the Vertical Temperature Structure in Tropical Cyclones Inferred from GPS Radio Occultation Measurements

Louis Rivoire, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. Birner

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

11:30 AM

18A.3

The Composited Tropical Cyclone Outflow Layer and the Balanced Vortex Response

Sarah Dunn Ditchek, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (640.2 kB)

11:45 AM

18A.4

Gradient Imbalance at the Outflow of Idealized Tropical Cyclone in a Three Layer Moist Neutral Model

Yair Cohen, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; and N. Harnik and E. Heifetz

12:00 PM

18A.5

Simulation of the Downshear Reformation of a Tropical Cyclone

Leon Nguyen, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

18A.6

Relationship between eyewall slopes, inner-core structures, and intensities of TCs

Tomoki Ohno, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan; and M. Satoh and Y. Yamada

Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM

18A.7

Eyewall reconstruction of Typhoon Fanapi (2010) after encountering the Taiwan terrain

Ming-Jen Yang, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. C. Wu and Y. C. Liou

Recorded Presentation

12:45 PM

18A.8

Applicability of Conservation Principles to Doubly-Periodic Hurricane Simulations

John Persing, NPS, Wellington, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and J. C. McWilliams

Recorded Presentation

1:00 PM

18A.9

On the relative contribution of inertia-gravity wave radiation to asymmetric instabilities in tropical cyclone-like vortices

Konstantinos Menelaou, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. A. Schecter and P. M. K. Yau

1:15 PM

18A.10

Constraints on Parametric Hurricane Wind Profiles

Israel Gonzalez III, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (316.0 kB)

Session 18B

Intraseasonal Variability IV

Location: Miramar 1 & 2 (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Cochairs: Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology; Samson Hagos, PNNL/DOE

11:00 AM

18B.1

Pollution in the Tropics: Multi-scale Variability in 30 Years of Ozone and Carbon Monoxide Observations across Mexico City

Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland; and G. B. Raga

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

18B.2

Extratropical Convective Precursors to Initiation of MJO Convection Over the Indian Ocean

Jennifer A. Gahtan, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (781.7 kB)

11:30 AM

18B.3

Evolution of Madden-Julian Oscillation in two types of El Niño

Jian Ling, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

18B.4

Moisture Mode Processes and MJO Predictability in Coupled NAVGEM/HYCOM Simulations

Matthew Janiga, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Ridout, M. Flatau, N. Barton, and C. Reynolds

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

18B.5

Dry Signals of the MJO

David Zermeno, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

18B.6

The Role of Dry Dynamics in the MJO

Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM

18B.7

Relevance of Large-Scale Subsidence and Cumuliform Buoyancy to MJO Convective Onset

Scott W. Powell, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (931.1 kB)

12:45 PM

18B.8

Changes in the structure and propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with increasing CO2 in the NASA GISS general circulation model

Ángel F. Adames, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, A. H. Sobel, A. D. Del Genio, and J. Wu

Recorded Presentation

1:00 PM

18B.9

The Role of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling in Eastward Propagation of the MJO Convection

Ajda Savarin, RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.9 MB)

1:15 PM

18B.10

Rain-formed and diurnal warming-formed near-surface ocean mixed layers: impacts on SST throughout the MJO

Elizabeth J. Thompson, APL/University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. A. Rutledge, J. N. Moum, and C. Fairall

Recorded Presentation

Session 18C

Operations and Landfall II

Location: Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: John A. Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS

11:00 AM

18C.1

Evaluation of an Experimental Potential Gale Force Wind Swath Using GPCE to Account For JTWC Forecast Confidence

Brian Strahl, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.3 MB)

11:15 AM

18C.2

Evaluation of Hurricane Wind Field Forecasts from Global Models Within the TIGGE Archive

Michael E. Kozar, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and M. Powell

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

18C.3

Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Errors in the 2015 NCEP Global Ensemble Model

Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

Recorded Presentation

18C.4

Insights into Hurricane Track and Intensity Verification Results through Temporally Homogeneous Samples

12:00 PM

18C.5

Investigating the Variability in Skill of Statistical RI Prediction Models

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria and C. M. Peirano

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

18C.6

Tropical cyclone statistical rainfall climatology and experimental guidance derived from NCEP Stage IV data

Tristan J. Hall, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg and R. Hart

Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM

18C.7

Environmental Interactions during a Sudden Extreme Rain Event, following the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Bilis(2006)

Difei Deng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and N. E. Davidson, K. J. Tory, M. C. N. Hankinson, and S. Gao

Recorded Presentation

12:45 PM

18C.8

Impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Genesis Pathways on Tropical Cyclone Predictability in the GEFS Reforecasts Version-2

Weiwei Li, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, M. S. Peng, and R. McTaggart-Cowan

1:00 PM

18C.9

Objective Partitioning of 5-day Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones

Jenni L. Evans, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. Kowaleski

Recorded Presentation

1:15 PM

18C.10

Sensitivity Study of Tropical Cyclone Initial Perturbations for GEFS

Xiaqiong Zhou, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and B. Fu and Y. Zhu

Session 18D

Numerical Modeling V: Operational Forecasts and Evaluation

Location: Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD

11:00 AM

18D.1

Evaluating Medium-Range Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych

Recorded Presentation

Handout (9.1 MB)

11:15 AM

18D.2

COAMPS® Monthly Prediction of the MJO and Tropical Cyclone 05 (2011)

Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and J. Doyle

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

18D.3

Assessment of CMIP5 and post-CMIP5 Representation of Tropical Cyclones in Forced Atmosphere Simulations - Understanding Dynamical Constraints

Malcolm J. Roberts, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. L. Vidale, J. Camp, C. Kodama, R. Roehrig, M. Wehner, Y. Yamada, and M. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

18D.4

Simulation and prediction of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR coupled climate model

Hiroyuki Murakami, Princeton AOS/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. A. Vecchi, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, S. Underwood, W. Anderson, J. H. Chen, R. Gudgel, L. Harris, S. J. Lin, and F. Zeng

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

18D.5

Evaluation of Hurricane Forecast Skills of NCEP GFS Retrospective Experiments for the FY2016 Implementation

Fanglin Yang, NOAA, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.9 MB)

12:15 PM

18D.6

Impact of Parameterized Physical Processes on Simulated Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in Community Atmosphere Model

Fei He, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt

Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM

18D.7

Hybrid Mass Flux Cumulus Scheme (HYMACS) as a Step to Unified Cumulus Parameterization and Its Application to Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

Hing Ong, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. C. Kuo

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (493.1 kB)

12:45 PM

18D.8

A Numerical Study on the Typhoon Cyclonic Deflection Tracks near the Terrain

Li-Huan Hsu, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. H. Su, H. C. Kuo, and R. G. Fovell

Recorded Presentation

1:00 PM

18D.9

The Impact of Taiwan Terrain on Tropical Cyclone Track

Kuan-Chieh Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

18D.10

Feedback effect of tropical cyclone on the western Pacific Subtropical high

1:30 PM-1:45 PM: Friday, 22 April 2016

Announcement of Max Eaton Award

Location: Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)

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