Tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using high-resolution CAM5

This work examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in various versions of the Community Atmosphere Model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using realistic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). We find a reduction in overall global TC activity as climate warms that is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extreme precipitation associated with TCs is also projected to become more common. Basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs and these uncertainties can be larger than those differences from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5.