The Capability of regional NMMB for Rapid Intensification Forecast: Insights from Hurricane Patricia

Friday, 22 April 2016: 9:15 AM
Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Weiguo Wang, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, S. Trahan, T. Black, Q. Liu, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, M. Tong, J. Sippel, S. Abarca, D. Sheinin, H. S. Kim, K. Wu, and V. Tallapragada

Hurricane Patricia is the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, and it experienced extremely rapid intensification, with the drop of central pressure by 100 hPa and the increase of maximum 1-min sustained wind by 100 kt in 24 h. Patricia's rate of rapid intensification was not forecasted by any of the present operational models. To this end, numerical experiments were conducted for Patricia using the new Nonhydrostatic Multi-scale Model on B grid (NMMB), the second generation of nonhydrostatic models being built at NCEP. Regional NMMB is configured with 3 domains, a parent domain (18 km grid spacing) and two telescopic, movable and interactive nested grids (6 km and 2 km grid spacing), which is similar to the operational HWRF. Analyses will focus on the intensity forecast especially the extreme rapid intensification. Preliminary results suggest that NMMB can capture remarkably well the rapid intensification of the storm. Reasons behind the NMMB performance on hurricane Patricia are investigated and plans for further developing the model are presented. NMMB has potential to continue to advance our hurricane intensity forecast numerical guidance.
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