Improved Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Responses to ENSO in the Western North Pacific in the High-Resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model

Thursday, 21 April 2016
Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Wei Zhang, Princeton AOS/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and G. Vecchi, H. Murakami, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, A. Rosati, S. Underwood, W. Anderson, L. Harris, R. Gudgel, S. J. Lin, G. Villarini, and J. H. Chen

This study aims to assess whether, and the extent to which, an increase in atmospheric resolution in versions of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-Resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution Version of CM2.5 (FLOR) with 50 km and HiFLOR with 25 km improves the simulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation-tropical cyclone (ENSO-TC) connections in the western North Pacific (WNP). HiFLOR simulates better ENSO-TC connections in the WNP including TC track density, genesis and landfall than FLOR in both long-term control experiments and sea surface temperature (SST)- and sea surface salinity (SSS)-restoring historical runs (1971-2012). Restoring experiments are performed with SSS and SST restored to observational estimates of climatological SSS and interannually-varying monthly SST. In the control experiments of HiFLOR, an improved simulation of the Walker circulation arising from more realistic SST and precipitation is largely responsible for its better performance in simulating ENSO-TC connections in the WNP. In the SST-restoring experiments of HiFLOR, more realistic Walker circulation and steering flow during El Niño/La Niña are responsible for the improved simulation of ENSO-TC connections in the WNP. The improved simulation of ENSO-TC connections with HiFLOR arises from a better representation of SST and better responses of environmental large-scale circulation to SST anomalies associated with El Niño/La Niña. A better representation of ENSO-TC connections in HiFLOR can benefit the seasonal forecasting of TC genesis, track and landfall, improve our understanding of the interannual variation of TC activity, and provide better projection of TC activity under climate change.
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Submission entered in competition