Telescopic Nesting and Impact on Hurricane Forecast Skill

Friday, 22 April 2016: 8:45 AM
Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. Trahan, Y. C. Kwon, V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, Z. Janjic, Z. Zhang, and D. Jovic

The temptation in hurricane numerical weather prediction is to focus on physics schemes, data assimilation or methods of viewing model output. This overlooks one key aspect of the design of a nested hurricane model, which is the way in which the nesting is implemented. That critical piece can make or break a hurricane model. We analyze some approaches to nesting and how it has hurt or helped model forecast skill. This includes treatment of land, microphysics, upscale and downscale feedback, and other features oft ignored in hurricane model design.
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