Monday, 18 April 2016: 9:00 AM
Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Despite attempts in recent years to differentiate causes for rapid intensification (RI), significant progress in the realm of tropical cyclone intensity change remains limited. Perhaps it is time to approach the RI issue from another perspective: Kowch and Emanuel (2015) suggest that there is nothing unique about RI; we further suggest as a hypothesis that tropical cyclones will typically intensify towards their maximum potential intensity unless impeded by vertical wind shear, dry air, or an unfavorable precipitation distribution. Using the WRF-ARW we examine the effect of these negative conditions on intensity change over the life cycle of Hurricane Edouard (2014) using observational analyses from Rogers et al. 2015 and Zawislak et al. 2015 obtained during NASA's HS3 campaign. We focus particularly on the azimuthal and radial distribution of precipitation and its relationship to the surrounding environment. We ask whether asymmetrical distribution of precipitation deters intensification. In addition, the model simulation is used to examine the link between the removal of more unfavorable thermodynamic conditions in the upshear quadrants and increased precipitation symmetry observed during Edouard's intensification.
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