Thursday, 21 April 2016
Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
This study follows-up on previous work that uses Dvorak intensity estimates to calculate probabilistic genesis guidance by providing a more detailed analysis of the climatology's temporal characteristics. Dvorak analyses of non-developing disturbances and TCs before and at genesis is collected from TAFB (since 2001; AL and EP basins), CPHC (since 2001; CP basin), JTWC (since 2010; WP, IO, SH basins), and SAB (since 2010; global). From this climatology, global genesis characteristics on different time scales are examined. First, time series of TC season to season variability in non-developing and developing disturbances as well as overall genesis probabilities are visualized and statistically compared. This data is then composited to show how development rates are climatologically modified by time of year through the tropical cyclone season. Finally, individual disturbances are composited to provide time tendency calculations of Dvorak numbers (i.e., how Dvorak intensity estimates change over the life of a disturbance). Such temporal and intensity trend information provides the ability to help refine and expand the range of season-wide climatological disturbance-centric probabilistic genesis guidance.
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