Sensitivity of hurricane intensity and structure to planetary boundary layer height in HWRF ensemble forecasts

Thursday, 21 April 2016
Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Hua Chen, NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and J. A. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, and Z. Zhang

Erika was forecasted to reach hurricane strength and make landfall on Miami by operational models but it never did. Satellite pictures and GFS shear analysis indicate that deep convection concentrated downshear-right, which is pointed by previous studies as non-favorable configuration for RI. In this study, ensemble forecasts of HWRF will be used to study in what senario of large environmental factors that deep convection will concentrate downshear-right, instead of downshear-left and upshear-left. The storm structures in terms of wind field and vorticity will also be examined to understand why storms can't intensify with downshear-right deep convection from the dynamics point of view.
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