Comparison of an Integrated Method of Tropical Cyclone Analysis using Microwave Imagery and Data with Current Methods of Analysis in the Western North Pacific

Friday, 22 April 2016: 9:00 AM
Ponce de Leon B (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam

Handout (3.1 MB)

This paper addresses the reluctance of operational tropical cyclone forecast centers to fully integrate their analysis techniques with the multitude of satellite-based remote sensing data currently available. Instead, infrared satellite imagery from geostationary satellites remains the main source of data to perform the Dvorak tropical cyclone intensification technique. Outside of aircraft reconnaissance, this is still the primary method used by tropical cyclone forecasters to determine intensification, and indirectly, positioning, for most of the global ocean basins.

In spite of the availability and awareness of the many sensors that are now routinely available from the polar orbiting satellites, specifically the microwave imagery and the ocean surface wind vector data, these data are often treated as additional, independent, pieces of information to be used in either the pre-phase or post-phase of tropical cyclone analysis and are not fully integrated into one single technique that is congruent with the six-hourly forecast produced by the warning center. For a given forecast time period, this often results in measureable differences between agencies in position and intensities that cannot simply be attributed to the differences in use of the Dvorak technique or between the uses of one minute versus ten minute wind averaging definitions.

This presentation will again offer some suggestions on how to modify the Dvorak technique to take advantage of the new data types and to discuss some recommended changes in the forecast/analysis routine that could provide a more consistent product for all agencies.

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