Tuesday, 19 April 2016
Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
This paper offers examples of how an integrated approach to tropical cyclone analysis can improve on intensification and positioning techniques currently used by operational forecast centers in the western North Pacific. Although a multitude of new satellite-based sensors are now available to most tropical cyclone forecast centers, these data are often treated as supplemental data and not in a fully integrated approach. Outside of regions where aircraft reconnaissance is available, the Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity technique using infrared imagery from the geostationary satellite remains the mainstay for most agencies. With the arrival of the new Himawari-8 satellite over the western Pacific Ocean, scientists and forecasters alike, are readily anticipating a plethora of new information and techniques from this advanced data source. And yet, a basic physical fact remains: In the absence of a well-defined eye, neither visual nor infrared imagery can see through the thick cirrus canopy to the surface circulation and the underlying convective structure often necessary to accurately perform the Dvorak technique. In this paper, examples will be presented that show how improvements can be made to the Dvorak intensity analysis using microwave imagery and scatterometer data to supplement the new higher resolution data. Comparisons with results from the operational centers will be shown both statistically and graphically.
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