COAMPS® Monthly Prediction of the MJO and Tropical Cyclone 05 (2011)

Regional monthly forecasts are often constrained by using lateral boundary conditions obtained from analyses by a global data assimilation system as global monthly forecasts are often not available. Some available global monthly forecasts are also based on different lower boundary conditions. In this study, we examine the influence of lateral boundary conditions on the Navy's non-hydrostatic Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) applied for monthly predictions. The lateral boundary conditions considered in this study are derived from either the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses or Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) monthly forecasts using persistent sea surface temperature (SST), analyzed SST, and from coupled NAVGEM-Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) forecasts. Several air-ocean two-way coupled COAMPS monthly forecasts based on these lateral boundary conditions are performed for the DYNAMO period of November 2011 to predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Tropical Cyclone 05 (TC05). The model domain covers the tropics and subtropics and extends from the eastern Atlantic to the western Pacific with 15-km horizontal resolution. Initiation and propagation of the MJO and TC05 and interactions between these two systems are verified using observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), TRMM precipitation estimates, ECMWF analyses, and SST analyses from the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA). COAMPS® is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory