The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI)

Thursday, 21 April 2016
Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Jason Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Kaplan, A. B. Schumacher, J. Cossuth, K. D. Musgrave, and P. Leighton

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is perhaps one of the more difficult stages of the tropical cyclone lifecycle to diagnose and predict. Tropical disturbances that undergo genesis are a vastly under sampled phenomenon in the North Atlantic and account for <10% of all NOAA aircraft missions that have been conducted since the middle 1970s. Unfortunately, there are also limited resources available to forecasters to objectively identify and predict TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin. A new scheme for forecasting TC genesis has been successfully accepted for transition to operations at the National Hurricane Center under NOAA's Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) program to help address these deficiencies. The main goal of this project was to develop a storm-centric TC Genesis Index (TCGI) to provide forecasters with an objective tool for identifying the probability of TC genesis (0-48 hr and 0-120 hr) in the North Atlantic basin. Our poster will highlight the TCGI scheme, its skill at predicting TC genesis in recent years, and plans for expanding the scheme into other ocean basins.
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