Tropical Cyclone Intensity VI: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Wednesday, 20 April 2016: 1:30 PM-3:30 PM
Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair:
Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Papers:
1:30 PM
11D.1
Diagnostics of systematic intensity errors for tropical cyclones in ECMWF forecasts
Linus Magnusson, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
11D.2
Is NHC Intensity Forecast Skill Increasing?
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. Cangialosi and P. J. Klotzbach
Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.8 MB)

2:00 PM
11D.3
Recent Improvements to NHC's Statistical-Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Models
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Miami, FL; and G. Chirokova, J. Knaff, K. D. Musgrave, and M. L. Bozeman
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
11D.4
Evaluation and Applications of the Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) Forecasting System
Kieran Bhatia, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. Nolan, A. B. Schumacher, and M. DeMaria
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
11D.5
Guidance-on-Guidance for Bifurcations in Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and H. C. Tsai
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
11D.6
Seven-day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry

3:00 PM
11D.7
Upper Bound on Hurricane Intensity Forecast Errors
Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Science Program, Bloomington, IN; and Z. Moon
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
11D.8
A Statistical Model for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast in Northwest Pacific Ocean Considering the Land Effect
Qinglan Li, Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China; and Y. Peng, T. Tang, C. Cao, L. Zhang, and W. Xu
Recorded Presentation

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Submission entered in competition
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