Numerical Modeling III: Probabilistic/Initialization Methods and Evaluation

Thursday, 21 April 2016: 1:30 PM-3:30 PM
Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Host: 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair:
Eric A. Hendricks, NRL, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA

Papers:
1:30 PM
15D.1
A study of ensemble extend-range TC track forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou and J. Peng
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
15D.3
Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecasting at the Met Office: Upgrades to the MOGREPS Model and TC Products, and an Evaluation of the Benefit of Multi-model Ensembles
Helen A. Titley, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Stretton
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (500.3 kB)

2:00 PM
15D.4
Prediction and predictability of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) revealed through convection-permitting real-time deterministic and ensemble forecasts
Yonghui Weng, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and C. Melhauser
Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.2 MB)

2:15 PM
15D.5
A multivariate Visualization for Uncertainties in Hurricane Model Ensemble
Keqin Wu, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Z. Zhang, W. Wang, and V. Tallapragada
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
15D.6
A novel tropical cyclone dynamic initialization technique using high temporal and spatial density atmospheric motion vectors and airborne field campaign data
Eric A. Hendricks, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. M. Bell, R. L. Elsberry, C. S. Velden, and D. J. Cecil

2:45 PM
15D.7
Applications of a New Tropical Cyclone Initialization Scheme on Improving TC Intensity, Structure and Track Forecasts
Yi-leng Chen, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and C. Y. Chen and H. V. Nguyen
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
15D.8
Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust During Hurricane Helene (2006) Using an Adjoint
Daniel Holdaway, NASA, Greenbelt, MD
Recorded Presentation

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Submission entered in competition
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