Examination of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Guidance with Multiple Dynamical Model Inputs

Thursday, 21 April 2016: 8:15 AM
Ponce de Leon C (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and J. Kaplan

Rapid intensity change remains a challenging forecast problem for tropical cyclones (TC). Multiple statistical techniques have been developed, using logistic regression, Bayesian, and discriminant analysis to provide probabilistic and deterministic TC rapid intensification (RI) guidance. These techniques rely on fields from the Global Forecast System (GFS) to provide information on the large-scale environment during the forecast periods. The use of different dynamical models to provide environmental information, including the Hurricane-Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model, will be explored. Results will be presented on the use of discriminant analysis for RI guidance from multiple dynamical models in all global TC basins.

DISCLAIMER: The views, opinions, and findings in this article are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and/or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.

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