Analysis of the sudden northward track change and rapid weakening of Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015)

Thursday, 21 April 2016
Plaza Grand Ballroom (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Jia Liang, NUIST, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

Previous idealized numerical experiments suggest that the coalescence of a tropical cyclone (TC) with a monsoon gyre that leads to a sudden northward TC track change is associated with a cyclonic rotation of the TC beta gyres while little attention has been paid to the possible TC intensity change during the coalescence process. This study conducted an analysis of Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015) to verify the result of the idealized experiments and understand the rapid weakening of the intensity of the typhoon that was failed to predict in operational forecasts.

Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015) experienced a sudden northward track change around 0000 UTC 3 July 2015, with a rapid weakening of its intensity during the 12 hours of the track change. Analysis shows that its activity was associated with a large-scale monsoon gyre on the intraseasonal (15-30-day) time scale during sudden track and intensity changes. The monsoon gyre was located to the east of the Philippines and nearly stationary before the typhoon made the sudden northward turn. Then the monsoon gyre moved northward together with Chan-Hom after the sudden turn. In agreement with the previous result of the idealized numerical experiments, the cyclonic rotation of the beta-gyres was identified prior to its coalescence process with the monsoon gyre, suggesting the importance of the change of the orientation of the beta gyres. The rapid weakening of the Chan-Hom was related to the strengthening of outer convection associated with the monsoon gyre during the interaction of two systems, while the large-scale environmental factors including sea surface temperature, humidity in low and middle levels and vertical wind shear had little influences. It is found that the development of eastern outer convection associated with the monsoon gyre made the weakening of the inner-core convection and enlargement of the eye of Chan-Hom, thus leading to the rapid weakening of Chan-Hom within an relative favorable environment for intensification.

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Submission entered in competition