Tropical cyclone forecast verification: Some new ideas

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecast verification is a very broad area and many aspects of the verification depend on the purpose and the user needs. The track, intensity and structure are mainly used by operational centers and centers tasked with TC prediction. The performances of the said parameters are considered benchmarks for NWP model performance for TC verification. However, there has been great interest in the community to investigate other parameters to evaluate model and provide modelers insights into forecast issues. The Developmental Testbed Center's (DTC) Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) team had been conducting various Testing and Evaluation (T&E) including physics options other than the operational configuration. Also evaluations of the pre-implementation tests of EMC were also conducted. These evaluations led to development of new metrics of TC forecast verification. One of the difficult challenges models face is to forecast rapid intensification/weakening of hurricane intensity. The other factor that causes severe damage to life and property is extreme precipitation from TCs. The Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance is examined with the HWRF model. New methodologies are developed that are relevant to TC forecasts for both the parent and the inner nests to compare against observations. The precipitation from models provides more information about the cumulus and the microphysics behavior. The HWRF provide simulated satellite images which provides critical information about the performance and impact of microphysics. Satellite verification against GOES satellite is also developed. In this presentation all the above aspects of verification will be shown and how the community can use and utilize the tools provided through Model Evaluation Tools (MET) and though HWRF repository.