Global Ensemble Forecasts for Tropical Cyclone Track and Genesis

Wednesday, 20 April 2016: 9:15 AM
Ponce de Leon A (The Condado Hilton Plaza)
Jiayi Peng, EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and R. Wobus

NOAA established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) to develop a 10-year strategy to improve hurricane forecasts. The global ensemble forecast systems from different centers provide very important guidance in tropical cyclone (TC) track and genesis forecasts, which will greatly help HFIP reach its 10 years goal.

Along with new NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS-T574) implementation, the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), Canadian Meteorology Center (CMC), European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ensembles' TC track and genesis forecasts will be delivered in real-time by NCEP Central Operations (NCO). These products will help the forecasters from NHC and JTWC to improve the deterministic and probability forecasts for TC track and genesis.

The verifications from the past few years show significant improvements for hurricane /typhoon track prediction through the multiple global-model ensemble forecast system. 48 hours TC genesis probability forecasts from ensembles provide an objective guidance for the forecasters in operational centers. The verifications indicate these products are more reliable than the subjective prediction by the forecasters from NHC and JTWC.

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