Forecast with Convective-Resolving NWP Models

Over the past several years, there has been an exciting evolution in regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) where convective processes have become explicitly resolved rather than parameterized, and, on-going precipitation has become initialized through radar data assimilation. These advances have led to very realistic forecasts of convection for the day ahead. While interpretation of convective-scale NWP output requires careful analysis, the nature of convection is now often well predicted in NWP systems. Benefits and limitations of convective-scale NWP will be illustrated by analyzing NWP forecasts at resolutions of 12 km, 4 km, and 1.4 km. Further, verification of convective-resolving forecasts, from operational systems at WSI and at national agencies, will be presented.