Extended Abstract (376K)J11.3
On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting
David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter
When considering the use of output from short-range ensemble prediction (SREF) systems in operational settings, an often raised question is that of which individual ensemble forecast member is considered "best". We argue from a theoretical viewpoint that it is inappropriate to seek the answer to this question, specifically with regard to the concept of "return to skill." The theoretical arguments are then applied to a set of SREF cases collected in Spring 2003 by the Storm Prediction Center during an experiment designed to test the operational use of SREF products for predicting severe storms. Using a variety objectively defined approaches, most of the examples reveal tremendous spatial and temporal inhomogeneity in the individual member identified as "best". One case does reveal a consistently selected "preferred" solution, but we show that its initial perturbations may not be appropriate. Implications for the use of SREF products in operational settings are discussed.
Joint Session 11, Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Room 6A
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