Joint Session 11 |
| | Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A) |
| | Organizer: Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
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| 4:00 PM | J11.1 | The indistinguishable states approach to probabilistic forecasting
Kevin Judd, UCAR/NRL/University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; and L. Smith |
| 4:15 PM | J11.2 | Can deterministic ensemble-based filters provide correct probabilistic forecasts?
W. Gregory Lawson, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen |
| 4:30 PM | J11.3 | On the challenges of identifying the ''best'' ensemble member in operational forecasting  
David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and P. Nutter |
| 4:45 PM | J11.4 | Probabilistic forecasts of convection: How do we do it?
Cynthia K. Mueller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and D. Megenhardt |
| 5:00 PM | J11.5 | Hydologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu, and J. Schaake |
| 5:15 PM | J11.6 | RUC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System
Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins and NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. Du, and S. Tracton |