Extended Abstract (344K)J11.5
Hydologic Applications of Short and Medium Range Ensemble Forecasts in the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Demargne, E. Welles, L. Wu, and J. Schaake
Ensemble precipitation and temperature forcing is needed to drive the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system to produce probabilistic hydrologic forecasts NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS). Pre-processing procedures have been developed to apply operational NWS forecast products to produce the required ensemble forcing for ESP. These procedures are being tested in pilot projects at four NWS River Forecast Centers. This paper presents verification statistics comparing the precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts to observed data in these pilot projects. The ensemble forecasts produced highly reliable probability estimates for locations where there were sufficient forecast archives to estimate the climatalogical properties of the NWS forecast products used as input to the ESP pre-processing procedures.
Joint Session 11, Probabilistic Forecasting/Ensembles: Part IV (Joint between the Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean and the 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/16th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction) (ROOM 6A)
Wednesday, 14 January 2004, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Room 6A
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