J12.7
Analysis of recent atmospheric climate anomalies using the NSIPP-1 AGCM
Philip J Pegion, NASA-GSFC SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert, M. Suarez, and Y. Chang
Ensembles of 3 month hindcasts were carried out with the NSIPP-1 AGCM to assess the impact of SST anomalies and atmospheric intial conditions on monthly and seasonal predictions of 2002/2003 climate anomlies. The runs were initialized from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and forced with observed SSTs. Nine member ensembles were produced by perturbing the initial atmospheric state. Additional runs were made to help diagnose the role of the SST forcing and the atmospheric initial conditions. The results obtained so far for the NH winter of 2002/2003 show intriguing evidence for skillful predictions of month-to-month 200mb height and precipitation variability over the United States. The skill appears to come about partly from the memory of the initial atmospheric conditions and partly from the monthly SST variations. These results, as well as the results from several other planned experiments focused on recent summer and spring climate anomalies, will be presented at the meeting. .
Joint Session 12, Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Room 6C
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