Symposium on Forecasting the Weather and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean
15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations

J12.6

Intraseasonal prediction experiments using the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model

Suranjana Saha, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang and H. L. Pan

In order to extend the current 2-week weather prediction to the monthly and intra-seasonal time scale, the incorporation of the ocean model is crucial. At NCEP, we are working to fill the gap from the 1-day to week-2 forecasts to the seasonal forecasts to provide the seamless suite of products. The key portion of the gap is the 15-90 day time range. While the NCEP new coupled model (using the current NCEP Global Forecast System atmospheric model coupled directly to the modular ocean model version 3) in CMIP run does generate the Madden-Julian Oscillation, it is not clear if the initial value problem in a daily forecast can preserve that for the first 2-3 months. Previous tests with the atmospheric model using observed SST shows limited success in preserving the MJO signals as the model predicts intensity changes but not phase changes. We will present the results of the coupled model tests for 2001-2002. .

Joint Session 12, Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Room 6C

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