J12.19
Forecasts of tropical rainfall with the Constracted Analog method
Peitao Peng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Van den Dool
In this study, the application of the constructed analog method is extended to the tropical rainfall forecast. For the monthly mean data, two predictors have been used and compared. One is the satellite retrieved rainfall and the other one is the sea surface temperatures (SSTs). It is found that except in the deep equatorial Pacific region, both predictors give skillful forecasts up to three month lead, with the rainfall predictor slightly better than the SST predictor. The deficiency of the method in the deep Pacific may come from the truncated EOF representation. The reason for the advantage of using the rainfall predictor is that the rainfall predictor may contain both atmospheric low frequency oscillation and SST signals. In order to better resolve the tropical intra-seasonal oscillation, the pentad rainfall data will be used in future tests. The associated extra-tropical anomalies will also be specified.
Joint Session 12, Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Room 6C
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