J12.20
Combined dynamical and statistical forecasting of the Arctic Oscillation
Warwick Norton, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and M. Baldwin and J. Whitaker
Recent results by Baldwin et al. (2003) using an empirical statistical model have demonstrated significant skill in subseasonal forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). In their paper forecast skill derives from long-lived circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. Here methodology is presented to combine the statistical model with a dynamical medium range forecast model. This gives a significant increase in skill over the statistical model alone. The dynamical model output used is the Climate Diagnostics Center MRF reforecast project with a 15 member ensemble run from 1979-2002. .
Joint Session 12, Subseasonal forecasting (Joint with 15th Symp. on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symp on Forecasting the Weathe and Climate of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Room 6C)
Tuesday, 13 January 2004, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM, Room 6C
Previous paper Next paper